SRP Middle set multiway
£1/£1
3 limps
Hero £8 BTN QQ (£900)
BB calls (£500)
3 limpers call
Flop KQ10r (£41)
Hero £12
BB calls
I guess for our hand this flop looks great. but vs 4 other players we also do lose to Aj and J9 which are all possible.
Turn 9r (£65)
Checks
Checks
On the turn I dont see any reason to bet here.
River 3x (£65)
BB £50
Hero ??
After being called on the flop from the BB with three players who are still to act after him I think his range can be two pair Kx Qx Jx. Im not sure if players are betting Kx on this river for that size I do block a lot of two pairs and most of his sets would likely 3B pre here.. SO unless villain is capable of betting two pair for value here I think we need to fold?
4 Replies
Cbet sizing should be much bigger. Board is wet and you will likely be called. Turn check may be correct with one-liner,
I agree board is wet, however there is a lot of straight possibility which opponents can have too
I do actually like going large on the flop, maybe pot. There are a huge number of inelastic hands that are calling this large size, basically any two Broadway cards are going to continue.
River seems close to me and might be read dependent. I think most Villains are quite capable of choosing this size with 2p after the turn checks through, but there are just so many Jx combos here and you do have to slightly discount 2p both for not raising the flop and the possibility of being scared of the one-liner. I think I lean fold the less fishy that V seems, especially since it seems like suited Broadways without a Jack are cut down a lot by the board texture. If he is going to call the BB with junk like K9o, Q9o, T9o, etc. then a call is probably warranted.
Grunch:
PRE - raise bigger.
FLOP - c-bet bigger. I might pot it.
TURN - the 9 wouldn't seem to change much. AJ and J9 were flopped straights. Yes, it makes any J a straight, but on the other hand it cuts down on the combos of J9.
The problem I see is that our small raise pre and our small c-bet allows V to get to the turn with such a wide range that we're really just guessing. He could have us beat, but may not.
Checking back seems okay. A small barrel with a plan to either check back river or fold to a donk if we don't fill up would also seem okay.
RIVER - Doubtful V would use this sizing with a bluff. Hard to find his bluffs. Probably best to just fold.
Disagree with turn assessment
You bet there to show no fear of a jack and make it hard for villain to continue without one. If you get raised, you fold (bet-fold) and if you get called you check-back the river.
As played, your turn check-back made it hazy:
Either villain was disappointed that you didn’t bet the turn and is trying to get value with a jack.
Or
Villain realizes that you don’t have a jack or you would have kept betting, so he decides to steal.
So, you’re guessing based on your read
