Tricky River Spot with KK

Learned this lesson recently:
The problem with going for ‘thin value’ here is what do you do when villain x/r jams? I had to fold.
My interpretation is he doesn’t have 2pair with a river check, but we don’t either. I’m in the conservative lane, but I like checking back with a one pair hand.

Your play is fine up to that point, no need to re-pop the flop and alert villain of your strength. Such a good chance that villain is over-playing a queen that I don’t mind trapping.

Same thing on the turn. Villain saw you call a big x/r and he’s still coming. This is a time where I don’t think you ‘poke the bear’ because you only have one pair and could own yourself.

Nobody is folding 2pair to a backdoor flush. Take the free card and get some ‘info’ on villain whether you win or lose.

bet $75-100.

turn size is a giveaway you are good. id raise the turn small enough for Qx to call.

Grunch:

PRE - obviously fine.

FLOP - c-bet seems fine. Not folding to the 3x raise.

TURN - that downbet looks fishy AF when we call the x/r and the BDFD appears.

I'd click it back to $100.

RIVER - as played, I think we almost always have the best hand here, and I would want to target QX for value. Probably betting $250.

I don't think V is taking this line with a flopped 2P+ or rivered 2P with a hand like QJ. Flopped 2P+ would usually go bigger on the turn. QJ would usually block bet the river. He'd probably bomb it if he ran into a flush somehow.

This looks like some other QX combo that was raising flop just to see where he's at. Occasionally he has 54s for a bricked draw, or some other combo that was bluffing and is now giving up, like A3/A2.

I wouldn't try to target the weak 1P combos he might have. I'd just target his TP hands that are checking to check-call.

I limp in from MP but that's me. Nice preflop result if expected though, HU in position to a nice big playable SPR.

SPR is about 15 so I'm personally not looking to stack off with an overpear. I think in general against most I probably bet/fold a bunch of streets on the small side. Really sucks facing the flop check/raise. I get our reasoning for continuing in position and evaluating, but how often is a flop check/raise followed up by a slowdown check? So if we're planning on giving up to further aggression, we really should be considering a nitty fold on the flop against most, imo. If we can't bring ourselves to fold to check/raises, then I think checking back and making sure we get to showdown for two more bets is better.

I guess a sigh call on the turn for this price now that we're here. Do people really play Qx this way though?

Admittedly weird river spot. I always kick myself for missing postflop value, and I fear a check behind does do that. Although I also understand the desire to not put the pot in jeopardy and just check behind, though there's a bunch of opponents that just aren't capable of getting out-of-line here for big bets. I'm a value junkie on later streets, although in doing so I'll own myself every once and a while. I probably go $75 and fold to a check/raise.

GcluelessNLnoobG

OP - If you started with $450, you should have $340 left getting to the river. With $220 in the pot, there wouldn't seem to be a "good" bet size you could use that would make a lot of sense if you were planning to bet-fold.

Say you bet $75, or $100, as has been suggested. You might get called by worse, but if V is checking to check-call, the range that calls $75 or $100 would probably call a bigger bet, and we'd be losing value.

Say you bet $75 or $100, and he jams for $340 total. The pot will be $635-$660, and we'll be getting around 2.7 to 1 on a call. Are we really folding, when V takes this line?

I'm sure some here will say yes, we should fold, but I'd challenge them to explain V's line and find a hand that wants to x/r flop, down-bet turn when a BDFD appears, then go for a check-raise on the river when the flush comes in, when we're mostly going to be checking back without a very strong hand. That's an extremely unusual line with 2P or a set.

Say you bet $250, as I suggested. He might fold some hands that would have called a $75-$100 bet, and we'd be losing value. But I'd argue that most tight low-stakes recs are usually checking river to check-call, not check-fold.

This line of x/r flop, down-bet turn, check river may be an exception, because it looks like V may be giving up with a bluff. But if he was bluffing, and now he's giving up, he isn't calling any bet, whether it's $75 or $250. If he wasn't giving up, he'd just keep betting.

Say you bet $250, and he jams for $340. It's another $90. We'd be getting 9 to 1. Are we folding then? I mean...we probably should, but we probably wouldn't.

Honestly, I'd be shocked if V finds a river check-raise with a worse hand, after x/r'ing the flop, down-betting a BDFD turn, checking on a flush-completing river card, and we over-bet it. I'd expect to see QJ or better every time, but I probably still wouldn't fold, because we'd only need to be right 10% of the time, and this line just doesn't make sense for any hand.

Personally, I think it's a mistake to bet small here, if we're planning to bet-fold. If we're uncomfortable going for thin value by targeting QX, maybe poker isn't for us, and we might want to find a different game to play.

If we decide that we have the best hand, and we should bet $75 or $100 to get QX to call, because the BDFD comes in and QX gets significantly downgraded, okay, that's logical enough. I'd argue that low-stakes opponents may not even see the BDF come in, and even if they do, they don't always give us credit for having it.

Either way, it still requires us to decide if we're going to bet-call or bet-fold. I'd have a very hard time bet-folding when V takes this line. If I was going to bet small, I'd be hoping to induce a raise from QX, assuming I thought V was capable of finding a river check-raise as a bluff with showdown value. Otherwise, I'd just bet my hand for max value.

To me, this hand comes down to effectively ranging our opponent based on his actions. His flop x/r is scary, right up until the moment he puts that chicken-$hlt turn bet out there, at which point I'd be certain our hand is best, and even more certain when he checks the river.

If people say V won't call a $250 bet with QX, I'd challenge them by asking if they'd bet $250 as a bluff then, to make QX fold. If we don't think AQ/KQ/QX is folding for $250 when we just have AK, then we should 100% bet $250 for value when we have KK.

If we're wrong and he has a better hand, so be it. It happens. That's poker.

Doc makes a strong case for a value bet here. That said......

I would be x'g behind and showing down. I have a hard time believing that a tight player plays a naked Qx this way. H is repping an overpair the whole way.

So what turn leads does V have here that we beat on this river? His turn leads are stuff like sets, 5c4c, Ac4c/5c. If he's TAG he can also lead with exactly AcQx blocking the nut flush and our AA/QQ.

I think we are targeting a very narrow range with a river bet given that we block so many KQ combos we want him to have and his QJ is ahead of us. Prefer to x.

Prob a good spot to bet - his turn sizing like others have said seems to cap him towards AQ/KQ.

Bet 35$ and call a raise

I won't be shocked if V has QJ, as played. But if we assume he's calling pre with every combo, even the offsuit combos, it's still only 9 combos total, and he has to find a flop x/r, turn down-bet when the BDFD appears, and river check with top 2P. It seems unlikely that a tight V is going to take this line with QJ.

I'll be semi-shocked if V flopped 2P or a set and down-bet the turn after x/r'ing flop, then checked river rather than blocking.

I'll be completely shocked if V has a flush or JJ.

There just aren't very many hands that beat us and that also make sense when V takes this line. I think he has AQ/KQ here a lot, and we're just leaving a bunch of money on the table if we don't bet our hand for value, using a fairly chunky size, given the Qc is on board and we have the Kc in our hand, making it impossible for V to have AQcc or KQcc.

Yeah, I ended up checking behind which I don’t really love in retrospect. I feel I have a difficult time understanding how much this type of villain is willing to call with a Q when the board changes but it makes little sense for me to have the nuts. He actually ended up flipping over QJ for two pair, but I do think AQ and KQ will certainly call for at least 200.

I would have bet river smallish for value, but nice result (I mean obviously not given you lost the hand, but you played it perfectly given his holding). However, your argument is better: he either has a better hand (33/22/rare QJ), or he has nothing at all, or he has AQ/KQ which should call a healthy sizing. So I actually agree with you that if you're going to bet here, go for a decent size. I just wonder if the flush (plus Kc in our hand) lets him fold out some KQ.

If the river was a brick, you'd regret not raising the turn down-bet. If the river was just an offsuit jack, V almost certainly would have bet, and probably large. You probably would have folded. The river being both a jack and a club would have gotten me in trouble. It ended up saving you.

That said, if we raised turn, and he donks river on an offsuit J, it's pretty face-up, and I think we can pretty easily fold.

I'm not sure what the logic is behind V x/r'ing the flop with top pair, weak kicker. I recently saw an opponent do this. His turn action would have led me to believe that if they x/r the flop with TPWK, they're not slowing down on the turn when we call, and they're not folding if we raise.

Your opponent's line may suggest otherwise, when he down-bets. That would make me think he's less certain after we call the flop raise, and he may fold if we put in a big raise on the turn.

At a minimum, I'd think V's line suggests fear that you either had him beat with a higher pair until the river, or that the river made you a flush. Given how narrow a range he's apparently assigning you (AA/KK/AKcc), it suggests he's fairly MUBSy.

Regardless, if he's x/r'ing the flop with QJ, he's probably taking the same line with AQ/KQ, and maybe QT or worse QX. When he down-bets the turn and checks river, it seems like a pretty clear value bet on almost any card.

Was just re-reading this and thinking about it more. If he checks QJ on the river, I wonder if he keeps betting with AQ/KQ. If so, then the river is a great check-back.