A5s OTB vs stations

V1's range is too strong to squeeze against. The raise is too big to flat call. Gotta fold.

I think Dan's right that it's technically a mistake to call. I have H as a 2:1 dog against V1's ~6% range. Add V2, and maybe a passive blind or two to the mix, giving them ~20-30% ranges with QQ+/AK removed, and I have H with ~20% 4-ways. So a few % of the $10 bet is -EV.

But, H is IP, versus poorer players, one of whom we can range fairly tightly, and H has a nut-making hand. IO can be >30:1. Plus, H is unlikely to be raised off their call by either blind. I'm taking a flop.

Not raising. Why shrink SPR when on the BU with this hand? It's not like they're going to fold, and H'll have to fold if UTG 4!'s.

Make it $25
Take the initiative with a hand that plays well multiway with nut potential. See who comes along. They check to the raiser & you see 4 cards for a quarter.

I'd mostly just flat call.

If you wanted to raise, I'd think you'd need to go huge to take it down pre. And I wouldn't want to try it when our read is that UTG is loose passive with a ton of open limps. I think you'd probably need to make it at least $75 to have a hope of getting it through. That's too big a portion of our stack.

If we were $600 deep or deeper, I might FAFO.

If I'm playing I'm calling. I think it's close btw fold and call in terms of EV. A 6% pfr doesn't bode well for our equity but they will prob make exploitable mistakes postflop

Since we have the button and I want to see what happens next, let's call.

Results:

Hero folds. V1 bets the flop. V2 folds.

I’m fine with a fold here (raise or fold)
I think of loose passive as having wide ranges, but if I thought they were opening anywhere near optimal, I might not want to get involved.