QQ facing short stack push on KT8 2-flush
1/2 NL 6-handed with empty seats and walker (1/2 is nearest to me and easy. I used to play full time and am self employed.) 3 limps, hero raises to 15 with QdQc, BB cold calls, all limpers call (A couple of times I raised this size in close to this situation and took it preflop. I don't like raising really large and taking the blinds half the time).
Flop (68) comes KhTc8h, checks to 1st limper, who shoves for 71. Folds to hero. BB to act has about 170, is bad LAG and seems disinterested. Hero was greater than 300 deep versus other 2 players.
Shover got short shoving 6x pot a KQJ6 2-flush turn and got called with KT, who made straight when ace came. Don't know what shover had to hand, but thought it was a bad call with KT and shover probably was way ahead, maybe with 2-pair or a set. Shover seems sort of competent otherwise.
Should hero call off? 10-12% against a K. Significantly behind a good combo draw, but he doesn't have to have a strong draw. If he has something like QJ and AQ, hero is a significant favorite.
10 Replies
Not calling without clear signs of tilt.
I am getting 2-1 and he could be doing this with a lot of draws on this board.
If he's sort of competent, he doesn't have any drawing hands in his limp/call range when short stacked. Worst hand he should have here is AhTh. If he's less competent, maybe JhTh or QhTh.
If he's a fish, sure, call all day, but even a fish will usually have a K here.
He is sort of competent, but probably not playing the ranges a reg would.
I mean, a reg playing a good short-stacking strategy wouldn't have any limp/calls in their range at all. It would all raise first in or be a limp/3-bet, I would think.
I said he was sort of competent. I said he did not appear to be a reg. I don't think he was playing a shoert stacking strategy. He just lost most of this stack, probably getting it in good, and didn't rebuy.
Sorry, I think I misread the OP. Too soon for results. Give it at least 24 hours.
Snap call imo.
I can’t tell you what to do, but I would know in your position. This is where I shine - read based play where instinct comes into play.
Two types:
1. Took a beat and ready to settle in and play that shortstack for all it’s worth. Has a king
2. Took a beat and tilt found him - ready to either double up or rebuy. Less likely king
Villain’s pot-sized bet needs to work half the time as a bluff. So it comes down to ‘does villain have a king?’
You can always be wrong, but it’s either fold and lose 15 or gamble for more. It sounds like the other guy will be getting out of the way, so there’s that - but you must decide.
If you’re wrong, maybe you get a better read on villain moving forward. I wouldn’t beat yourself up over this play anyway you go. Sometimes that first instinct is right on target, but we talk ourselves into something more logical. Carpe diem!
I don't see it as that read based. Maybe a reg would reload with less than 50xBB, wouldn't limp/call, and wouldn't have a hand that made a draw. All that is kind of irrelevant. Having a decent draw on that board, shoving would probably be correct for pot. It would also be correct to shove a K. I don't see how he would have to be tilted to shove a draw. My read was he was quite willing to shove in other situations.
I don't think he is ever doing that with close to a pure bluff. The question is how much of his range is semibluffs, and could he have a draw I am way ahead of like QJ? I think now it should have been a call.
