2-5 3BP QQ on 976ss multiway
2/5
Recreational UTG (600 eff.) opens to 20
Hero in CO 3B to 70 with QsQh
BTN (900 eff. with hero), solid reg, cold calls 70, UTG calls.
Flop (210): 9s 7s 6h
x, x, BTN bets 130, UTG calls, hero....?
We have around 830 remaning, with 470 in the pot, and UTG only has about another 400 behind
UTG could have a wide range here, BTN on the other hand we're pretty confident should have a tight range of pocket pairs (not sure how low they're getting in there), AK/AQ/AJs — something like this. Not sure if the pocket pairs include AA/KK, but it's definitey a possibility that V is essentially never 4-betting in this spot, and instead flats his entire range, or at least that he's not 4Bing AA/KK all of the time.
2 Replies
It appears you’re up against another pocket pair. Solid reg cold calls 3bet and leads flop for more than 1/2 pot. That’s strong.
But you’re strong too. It’s not ideal, but it’s probably coming down to your read.
Think you’ve got to call the flop & evaluate - raising doesn’t seem helpful - you & BTN could be fighting it out with pps while UTG flopped a straight.
Hopefully, the action on the turn will bring a more clear picture.
Grunch:
PRE - your raise size seems fine. We might be able to go a smidge bigger.
BTN cold call is weird if he's a solid 2/5 reg. I'd think that condenses his range around low-mid PP's and Broadway combos. Maybe some SC's.
FLOP - ehhhh... I think checking is probably best. I wouldn't like this board at all.
I'd think a solid reg would have very few bluffs here. His sizing strikes me as weird but I'm not sure why.
Maybe it's because it seems far fetched that he has a straight and would play it this way. With such a wet and connected / dynamic board texture, this might be the size he'd take with 2P and sets, but if he's going to use this size for value and protection, why not just pot it? Hard to figure what hands he thinks would call 2/3 pot but fold to full pot.
Maybe he does this with two overs and a flush draw. Maybe even a combo draw. Just not that many combos that would make sense when we have the Qs. Maybe JTss or ATss. And he could just check back. It would suck for him to bet and get x/r'd. Maybe that explains his large sizing.
I wouldn't think BTN has AA/KK here very often, if ever. There has to be some frequency of 4B pre and check back on this flop.
I think UTG could have JJ/TT here. We could be ahead of him a lot, but still way behind BTN. And the crazy thing is that JJ/TT has equity to improve to a straight. We don't.
The optimist in me wants to believe we're up against UTG with JJ/TT and BTN wiith a draw, but half of those JJ/TT combos block the AJss/ATss/KJss/KTss/JTss hands we're hoping BTN has. Those draw combos cut down on how much JJ/TT are possible for UTG.
Just seeing this now - 88 makes some sense. Maybe also A8ss - 18-21 outs to improve vs TT-KK. Any 8x combo is likely to be 98/87, and is like a 10-12 out draw with some sliver of SDV.
I dunno. Folding feels nitty. Jamming seems like a massive over-play. Calling would seem to be the best choice by process of elimination, but I definitely wouldn't love doing it.
I'd love folding and seeing we made a good fold. I'd love jamming, getting called, and somehow winning. I wouldn't feel bad jamming and just taking it down here and now. I know I'd want to take a walk if we call flop and end up folding turn when we end up face another bet-call, or if we fold now and seeing that we folded the winner.
Poker can be such a stupid game sometimes.
