2/3/6 5 bet sizing
Villain is in his 20s. I've only played with him once or twice. He definitely thinks he's pretty good and maybe he is. Pretty active pre. 3 bet the player who I think is the biggest winner in this game from MP with J9s. He's losing today and seems like he's trying to make something happen.
Player in the big blind is a reg who can play well, but he's on tilt today and can have about anything here.
I rarely play this game, as I don't really like hold em. I would imagine my image with this particular villain is tight and maybe he thinks he can run me over. Big blind has played with me a little more and knows I'm capable.
Villian (1400) opens to 25 (standard open in this game) from UTG+2. I'm two seats to his left and make it 70 with AKo. I cover both. Big blind (1700) flats the 70. Villain takes 5 seconds and makes it 225. I'm pretty confident I'm good here.
What's your sizing?
8 Replies
$650. Sizing answer, not should we be 5b’ing answer.
Click to 420 or just rip it in. I prefer the latter
It’s all going in so just rip it and hope BB folds his medium pair.
Grunch:
We could be good. It doesn't necessarily follow that we should re-raise. A few factors we may want to consider...
He opened from EP, and just 4B. He could just have a good hand that doesn't mind getting it in pre.
He may be tilted. If so, he may be more likely to push with a wider range that's still mostly ahead of AK. Who cares if it's 55+ or TT+, when we're drawing to 6 outs either way?
The reg in the BB just cold called a 3B from the worst position. Is there some frequency of him show up with a big PP that's praying V 4B's, and you call or 5B, so he can back-jam?
Just flatting here in position doesn't necessarily cap us. Especially at this stack depth. We might not have any 5B range here. We could flat call, and see a flop with position on our two opponents. If BB flats behind us, I'd think that would dramatically decrease V's flop c-bet frequency.
If you absolutely must 5B, I'd probably just rip it in for max fold equity. There's no smaller 5B size that wouldn't commit you to calling off the rest if V jams, unless you literally min-click it.
If you're worried about BB having $1700, you could 5B to $450-$475. Obviously fold if he back-jams. Not sure what you do if he flats the 5B and then V jams. I'd be extremely concerned about you what BB has in that scenario.
That's really the main concern I'd have when raising here. We have another opponent who cold called behind us, and the action has been re-opened. I'd like to see what BB does before we take another aggressive action.
You can never fold to BB here, trust me on that.
Anyway, I thought a normal size looked stronger than a jam, so I made it 675. BB thought for a minute or so before folding. Villain turbo mucked.
I'd go $500, just enough to maybe convince V to do something stupid with AQ or get FPS with A5.
If your goal is to just end the hand, then blasting it in is ok, but if V tries to call light with AQ of middling pp, a lot of flops are miserable for him.
There's a decent chance you get non-tilt AK to fold by 5bet, and esp. some PP that couldn't fold to the 3bet this deep.
There's a non-trivial chance, in a normal game, that you get the money in a bit behind or crushed. Given your reads that this chance is much smaller than normal then I'd probably go big for max fold equity, as I don't love making it 500 and getting shoved on by either player.
Not sure any size gets AQ/A5s to do much. Just don't believe most (basically all?) people have a 5bet/6bet bluffing range at 2/3/6. It's all on what V does with QQ/JJ, where I assume they'd be more likely to call a smaller size (and that'd be solver approved).
There's a decent chance you get non-tilt AK to fold by 5bet, and esp. some PP that couldn't fold to the 3bet this deep.There's a non-trivial chance, in a normal game, that you get the money in a bit behind or crushed. Given your reads that this chance is much smaller than normal then I'd probably go big for max fold equity, as I don't love making it 500 and getting shoved on by
I'd rather be shoved on by either player than snap called after I jammed. If it is true that "Just don't believe most (basically all?) people have a 5bet/6bet bluffing range at 2/3/6." then bet/folding is vastly superior to jamming vs AA/KK. It gets dicey if V does have a 5! jam bluff like A5s, because then maybe we are folding as a huge favorite.
I don't think a player who is described as generally aggressive and losing today who "seems like he's trying to make something happen." is going to be folding appropriately to a small raise. We can see the flop, and very likely have an option to see a free turn. If we are against AK, we have a much better chance of getting it to fold post flop on a whiffed board. If we are against AQ, we have a chance to cooler V because he isn't getting away if an A hits. If we are against QQ/JJ, on some runouts we can get away and save $900.
Or we can jam now and flip against his QQ/JJ, get crushed by his AA/KK, and get minimum value from sticky Ax because we're afraid of playing postflop. Essentially the worst case scenario for every hand V might have. I'd rather flat the 4! than jam because I think jamming lets V play perfectly and call with big pps +AK and fold everything else. When called we are flipping at best, and most of the hands V folds we have good equity against.
