Can I Ever Fold Here?

I think it’s a pretty easy call to the small bet size. You beat most A’s including flopped 2 pair A6 and A4. AK/AQ was ahead the entire way just like 66/44. The only hands that will hurt is KQcc or similar.

Grunch:

Reads - understanding that V is a complete unknown, it still might help to apply some demographic profile reads. Is V male or female, young or old? Any ethnic traits which may point to certain common leaks? Does V seem comfortable in the game or not, etc?

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - OOP, I'd either check, bet very small, or over-bet. I don't really like using bet sizes between 1/2 pot and full pot on the flop, because I don't think they really accomplish anything. Your bet size doesn't do much to define V's range or get max value from his inelastic hands.

TURN - interesting decision point now. I'd think his worse AX will start folding out when we barrel. Also hard to find a lot of good draw combos that wouldn't 3B pre, though the 3B ranges might be a lot tighter when there's a 5BB straddle on the BTN and you open from EP.

So maybe he does have some decent equity draws that we could target here. I wonder how often he shows up with some QXcc combo, especially KQ/QJ/QT, or just KJcc/JTcc that picked up a GSSD.

Seems like his range getting to the flop is going to be super wide in the BTN straddle. It would help to have any sort of read if we're trying to figure out how light he will float our c-bet when he's IP. Wondering how often he'd slow play a flopped 2P that would be scared to raise now that we might have made better aces up. Also wondering if he'd flat pre or raise turn with AQ.

Again, not crazy about the 3/4 pot bet size. I could see checking to induce / bluff-catch. I could also see betting small to see if V wants to raise with aces up.

RIVER - another interesting decision point.

Doubtful he's got better AX when A6/A4 get counterfeited. Really only losing to a few QXcc combos and AK that slow played pre.

Question is does he stab/bet thin with worse AX or bluff with missed draws if we check, and if so, for what size? And if we bet, what are we targeting for value? Does worse AX sigh-call a big bet?

If I'm mathing right, you have about $420 behind getting to the river? I dunno. It's hard for you to be bluffing if you barrel for 2/3 pot or more. I suppose you could bet 10%-20% pot to get sigh-called or possibly induce, but your actual hand might be a little too thin to want to call off a big raise.

I wouldn't get here this way. As played I think check-evaluate is a fine option. Don't think we can fold to less than 1/4 pot.

Actually thinking a raise might be good here, if we can maybe get curiosity-called by worse AX or occasionally even maybe make AJ fold a chop. I kinda want to click this back to $120, mostly hoping to get called and expecting to be good when we are.

Interesting to consider how we'd play AA/AQ/QQ here. Hard for V to 3B river with any QX combo, or anything else that is bluffing. Since we have so many counterfeited AX combos in our range, I'd think a lot of opponents would have a very hard time folding AX to a min click when they get here this way.

I would have bet 100 on the river.
You have been barreling without resistance, why would you stop?

Probably just as many times as you pay off the guy in this spot, you get folds barreling in similar spots.

A savvy player realizing you’re a decent player, might claim the queen that sent you checking and bluff in exactly this way.

But who are we kidding, the population caught another queen and decided to bet a little. The pot odds say never fold, but it’s probably the exploit here.

I think the problem is that when you go raise pre, c-bet 2/3-3/4 pot, barrel 2/3-3/4, and then check river, your line looks like thin value or SDV that is hoping for a check back or a bluff give-up.

Like, would you take this line with anything better than AJ? Probably not. You need to put some nutted hands in this line in order to not be exploitable. But almost no one does. Most people just barrel with boats and bluffs, and check all their AX/SDV.

Your line funnels V to the river with a range that includes some incrementally worse value, some better value, and some bricked draws. Better value is mostly nutted and will bet. Worse value and bricked draws may bet or may check back. So when you check and V bets, you'll be in the blender sometimes. You'll be in the blender more often when V is balanced with his bet sizes and doesn't telegraph his hand strength.

You can help yourself by taking lines that have a check on flop or turn when you're OOP, or using bet sizes on flop or turn that do more to define opponents' ranges or keep those ranges wider.

Say you check flop. V will probably bet all his better AX, and maybe a lot of his worse FD's. If he checks back, you can delay c-bet the turn. If he bets flop and checks back turn, we can check-evaluate or bet/fold river with a little more clarity on his range. If he bets flop and turn, we can check-evaluate the river, and make V put in the third barrel with his bluffs.

Say you check turn. V will bet AQ. He might bet his high equity draws. We can check-evaluate river and see if he fires again, and for what size, holding a somewhat under-repped hand.

He'll probably check back turn with his SDV. We can bet river for value, or check again to induce / bluff catch.

Somewhat reminds me of a conversation between an online pro and Marc Goone of hungry horse. They were talking about manipulating bet sizes for exploit reasons. The pro said he didn't have that skill developed. Instead he uses the same 2/3 pot bet sizing scheme on most streets, but manipulates the range of hands he puts into his chosen line.

Personally I find it easier to vary my bet sizing than my ranges. If you want to use this sizing scheme in a bet-bet-check line, I think you need to consider the hands you put into your range in that line. It probably needs to include some much stronger hands and maybe also some weaker hands.

Alternatively, you may need to just barrel off with thin value, even when you don't expect to get called by worse, if only to prevent yourself from being face up when you check. It's not impossible to get called by worse AX here when the draws brick and your worse AX combos get counterfeited, and you might fold out some chops.

If V is balanced and bluffs sometimes, it's a snap call. Against a good player, I'd check most of my value looking to induce a bluff or thin value bet.

The problem is that versus a random $1/$2 player in a casino, I don't have confidence in them bluffing - hence why I just bet my value against these players. So then when he bets the river instead of checking back, does he ever have AT or weaker?

In theory he should, a good player would, but it's $1/$2/$10 in a rural casino.

Bigger pre, at least 30 if not 40, I would check or cbet smaller OTF, snap call river for this sizing lol. But I don't like your sizing. You want to get stacks in by the river and you can't do that with these sizes.

Keep in mind that there's what the $1/$2 player pool does usually, and what the pool does differently when the $10 straddle is on and someone raises to $25. We can expect more surprises when the straddle is on, I'd think.

Also, keep in mind that some opponents will bet in spots where they couldn't tell you if they were betting for value or as a bluff. He might bet worse AX, thinking you wouldn't check better, but not thinking about what you can have that will call.

I would call river as played. The price is right, and I do think that sometimes an Ax bets this size since you check.
Turn I agree with doc - either check/call or bet smaller. If we are playing to exploit and bet for value then the 3/4 size seems too strong. Weaker Ax and FD will at least consider folding while only the stronger part of V's range sticks around. I like small bet slightly more than check since there may be some 6x or straight draws like 75 in the mix.
Qx seems unlikely unless it goes with the FD.

I paid him off because it was cheap. Sure enough, V rolled over AK!? I was at once glad he didn't raise the turn and he bet so small OTR, and somewhat irritated at myself because, of course, they always have it but pot odds.

I completely disagree with betting smaller OTT. Flush draws are calling here, I'm getting called by Ax all day long for this size. I see no reason to make it cheap because what am I afraid of OTT? If anything I think I could have gone larger because how much is KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT clubs calling? Or AT, A9, A8, A7, A5, A3, A2 clubs? Probably $125-$150. Plus being in the straddle 75cc type hands aren't out of the question and will also call almost anything. So really I think I can hammer this turn much harder than I did because Axcc is a strong hand that just isn't folding and I'm ahead of most of those combos - especially if V has a 3! range, but as we just learned, he probably 3!s AA/AA/AA and maybe gets a little spicy with one combo of KK. (I never saw him 3! and he called/folded away his stack over the next 3 hours before picking up his last $300 and leaving.)

These baby bets just annoy me because IME, they are never bluffing. They are almost always (always?) undervaluing a relatively strong hand. So I pay them off because they are cheap, but sometimes I wonder if I'm just leaking by failing to make the exploitative fold because it happens to me 2-4 times almost every night.

If they annoy you, tell V you would have paid off a much bigger bet. Just annoy them back.

Really is amazing I don't have more friends.

They are not undervaluing a strong hand. They know they are tight. They know that you know they are tight. They know if they bet their hand's value you would fold. They know if they under bet by enough you will talk yourself into a call. They know they are better off with you calling whereas you are better off if you fold so they give you good enough odds so you will pay them.

It looked like hero had AcJc so how does villain also have AXcc or any of the combos like QJcc...?
I get your point about wanting to be called by smaller FDs but a) there would be fewer of them, and b) I think a lot of Vs would fold crappy FDs and weak Ax to a big bet on the turn. You can bet "small" (maybe up to 50%) to be called by those and earn more on the river with another bet by keeping in hands that have very little you fear.
If you have a read that V is a fish stacking off with any ace then ok bomb away

So do you think it's +EV to fold here?

All of this feels like giving the average unknown low stakes player way too much credit.

Yeah you are right.

I do think Ax is calling turn a lot versus me, I bet big a lot more than most, though not sure this player would know that.

But he is not average unknown unless you have very little experience with V. They are very tight, everyone at the table that has played with them for a few hours knows they are tight, and they know that unless they give opponents great odds they get folded to when they bet. Since they are not using their image to bluff to win pots they otherwise lose I clearly do not think they are a very good player but think they do know how to extract some value from their winning hands. My objection was to OP claiming they do not understand the strength of their hand. I feel they do and that they also understand at a simple level how their image limits the amount they can bet and be called.

snap call, villain doesnt have very much if any QX, and even if he did, I would expect it bet a larger amount hoping to rep a busted FD and hoping to get called by AX.

You might even beat some value here if he bets AJ or AT

For whatever it's worth, I think we could find a silver lining here. V could have 3B pre, and barreled post. We could have lost a lot more.

When an unknown V just flats with AK pre, and smooth calls flop and turn, I'm willing to call it a cooler or whatever, and not beat myself up about paying off on the river when V bets 1/4 pot.

The counterpoint is that we could have and maybe should have checked or bet smaller on either flop or turn, if not both.

The small river bet in position is often for thin value. We have to think V mostly has AX or QXcc here, and some low stakes opponents will over-play AX when the pot is bloated after they called two big bets on flop and turn.

If you believe your line funnels V to the river with too strong a range, and he wouldn't bet worse for value, then, yeah, maybe you can make a super-exploitable fold here. But you could also take a different line with an earlier check or use smaller flop and turn bets that get him here with a weaker range.