A3o Geek Hand

This one is just a math problem because you’re rarely getting paid more if a heart hits the river. How many hearts do you think are left in the deck based on the action? And not all hearts are winners. And based on the action, I’m not thinking and A or 3 are helpful.

So tell us what odds you need in order to call and what odds you have of hitting a winning card.

I like aggression early, so I 3bet (45) the flop. Not sure how this changes the action.

Hopefully end up heads up and then will lead the turn. If it stays multiway, checking turn and hoping my aggression leads them to check back.

As a tight player, I love semi-bluffs - they see monsters in my hand and get out of the way

You’re looking at a jam that may win (usually does) but it’s a risky guess as someone that already has the flush will call. As played, the button looks like that guy.

You might as well call, close the action and see if you hit.

I like to take control of the hand, even OOP.
With aggressive action and then run into resistance, I understand where I am. I don’t like getting lost in a hand calling along.

I don't think you have fold equity here -- your hand kind of looks like what it is, BTN's range is really strong, SB may just YOLO call it off with 2p or a straight -- so I agree with ntn that it's a math problem to determine if we can profitably call.

I would expect that you will get more money in if you hit. 3h pairs the board. Th or 9h mean 9h or Th respectively beat you. You could be drawing dead to Th9h. There is a problem in that you are probably stacking off against a straight flush, but may not get that much action from worse flushes. I don't think many would fold the turn, but it is close.

Shoving the turn is really bad. Lol raising preflop is not a 3! and would be awful with A3o OOP.

I'm with Freecard in that I want to take control of the hand. Being OOP is good this time because it gives me first bluff opportunities. I'm going to x/r flop because that is a more convincing semibluff. I lead on the turn because I'm repping a flush that doesn't want a 4th heart.

Based on reads, I might just check an unflushed river because I think the only way we got there is someone has to have a straight or flush. If they called the turn without conviction, I might fire a third bullet.

GG where are you?

Based on your propensity for bluffing on monotone textures, when you actually have a potential semi-bluff candidate (is much worse in reality facing this action) I suspect there is temptation on your end to just stuff it AI here as played, but I would advise against it. Just keep in mind from your opponent perspectives you have had 3 opportunities after the flop to take an aggressive action, and declined every single time. Would not be unreasonable for the fish or the semi-competent player to range you on a naked Ah here as played, especially when you did not raise preflop reducing Axhh combos.

It is okay here against low-limit players facing this action MW to be unbalanced here and be value-centric when you jam. They are not going to be making the appropriate folds that they should. It will feel nice to jam here and get the folds, just keep in mind long-term this is going to be a losing proposition.

And unsurprisingly OP doesn't want to do the most basic work on this simple problem.

I mean, flop might just be a fold. He's overbet what will be a rake ravaged pot, our IO on a four-to-a-flush suck, especially OOP and multiway, and a few of our outs might not even be good / have massive RIO / we could actually be drawing dead already.

I would sigh fold to the turn donk being sandwiched between the donker and the flop overbetter + all other same reasons we had on the flop. And even though we're kinda getting immediate odds to chase a clean flush and closing the action, I think we should probably fold again. And I certainly hope we're not thinking of getting spicey against the Button who is showing massive strength.

GcluelessspiceynoobG

Easy fold on the turn with the BU still to act who overpotted the flop into 4 people. As played, another relatively easy fold. Likely drawing to 7 outs at most, still not enough despite getting 4.5:1.

H is closing the action if I understand correctly. Pot is now ~245 and H must call 60.

This is close obviously on direct odds so it comes down to our assessment of IO. I don't think we want to see a river Ace. Our 3 is probably no good as somebody almost has to have a straight+ already.

So can we get paid on heart rivers? I think we can make a small bet if we bink and likely get a crying call but an overbet will generate folds. So it's possible the IO isn't there. It comes down to Banana's reads. He says SB will call down light and BTN is capable of moves.

On our A-game this is a disciplined fold, but at O'dark thirty after running bad I'm probably just yoloing the extra 60 in and racking up if I don't bink. I'm not ashamed to admit it haha....

Yea I was wondering if I could've folded to the 25...

..and lol at the goof saying this is a simple math problem as if calling is the only option...get a grip

Result:

Holy moly I thought for sure you'd back jam like in your other hh.

I think we have some implied odds vs sb if he’s chasing a flush. Unfortunately it’s likely btn has 2 of our outs, an extra 2 outs are really dirty and sb needs to have one for us to get paid. We don’t have the right odds but I have a tough time folding draws to the effective nuts multi way.

I guess my comment got deleted?

Result:

While this is kinda the worst case, it also isn't a completely unicorn case either, where we had all of 4 outs on the flop, getting about 2.3:1 (when rake + drop is factored) to chase a 10.5:1 draw (i.e. where we need to get about $120 into the $55 pot OOP against Kh to breakeven, not to mention not donate any ourselves on the 9h).

GthisisnotagoodspotG

yes but I hate folding nut equity :/