Set mining the BB

I wonder if solver ever 4bets preflop here. Ideally we'd want an ace in our hand, I think... but it would be interesting to know.

One of the requirements for set mining, particularly OOP, is we need villain(s) to pay off the implied odds when we hit. But, in this scenario, neither villain has a strong range so it's unlikely we get paid when we hit... and being OOP makes it hard to play 55 profitably if we don't hit the set. These are the problems with set mining here, IMO, rather than facing a 4bet from button.

I think these points above ^^^ are the interesting strategy points.

As played you have two choices: 1) raise now before action killing card comes; or 2) flat and allow SB to keep barreling with the weakest portion of his range.

I think #1 is best especially if you plan to do the same with draws (maybe we get super lucky and button somehow has exactly KQ).

Preflop is close between call and fold. Raise on wet flop. Could get stacked set over set by KK or QQ, but oh well.

raise to get value from big pairs/two pairs/straight & flush draws etc. particularly 3 way

raise to 150

GTOwiz 100bb

BTN opens; SB 3bets; BB pure folds 55.

BB has a tiny amount of 3bet with 77 ... but it thinks it's -0.02.

BB has a bit more 3bet with 65s ... but it thinks that is -0.01 (same as 88-JJ). Obviously ranges probably aren't the same if solver thinks QQ is the first value pair.

I think you can just fold here without amazing reads, if you do I guess call is probably better than raise as you'll know when you're in front post and V could spew 5bet shove JTs but it be good. If you just know they are weak preflop and they have a fold button, then I guess you could 4bet ... but GTO size would be like 70 and I think almost all humans call way too wide for that.

Post, eh, SPR is only 5 ... it's hard not to get it in. Probably call, but raising to 80 also seems fine unless he's bluffing air a lot.

We're close to 200bb eff with the SB. I expect that could alter the solution quite a bit?

A few things to unpick here, but in short: this is a basic preflop fold.

OK let's start with tight passive player opens 3x from the button. Unless we have information to the contrary, pretty much anyone who's played poker before knows that you can open wide from the button. It's pretty rare to see it folded to the button in low stakes live games - although this is 7 handed so maybe we're seeing it a bit - compared to online where it sometimes happens multiple times in an orbit.

"Tight passive" - well it's probably safe to assume she isn't opening what she could/should be, which is 40% or so. But is this tight player opening 20% or 5%? We don't know. Perhaps more pertinently: how do you think the SB ranges her?

You say "might have opened bigger with a truly strong hand" - is that based off any data? Or is the sizing merely a function of it being a button open? Quite a few players size down with a button open, rightly or wrongly. I would absolutely not start to discount any premium hands based off a smaller button open size, unless I'd seen her specifically open multiple hands from the button when folded to, that those sizings differed, and that we'd seen that one of those larger sizings was a premium hand and a smaller sizing was weaker. Unless you have a lot of time with her, you probably don't have that.

So all we can really say for certain is that she's probably opening a range which is rather tighter than 40%. The aggro 3bettor may have a calling range or he may not - there's a good chance he doesn't against this particular player (and may not have one at all). We can say he's somewhat more aggressive than average, but given that button open is tighter than average, that probably balances itself out.

Remembering player types is a lot of effort - so I have a fairly basic heuristic: anyone who cold calls a 3bet is a fish in my mental notebook until there's significant play to prove otherwise. If you're going to be a fish, don't make it so bloody obvious to the rest of the table.

Is your plan to fold if button 4bets? If she calls, do you expect SB to blast off OOP multiway against two fish with air? Are you autofolding any flops that aren't a set? You need to make 10x your investment - which should be pretty achieveable if SB has an overpair or hits top pair on the flop - but in reality you need to make a lot more than that when you hit, to make up for the times (1) you fold to a button 4bet and (2) SB check-folds when you hit a set on, say, T52.

Solver 4bets biggish pairs (albeit SB has a big calling range) and as stack sizes increase that 4betting range moves to even bigger pairs, away from any unsuited hands at all apart from AKo, and adds in more suited Ax and Kx. 55 doesn't come anywhere close to being anything other than a fold in any dimension.

Well you got a dreamy result: no button 4bet, you flopped a set on a King-high board, and the SB obliged and bet for you. The stars have aligned.

All three players can have connected with this flop a lot. So is SB going to bet his air here - from his perspective multuway vs two fish? Will he do it with his flush draws and straight draws? If you raise, will button continue with a hand like KJ/KT?

You can still get all the money in on turn and river in various ways - even more easily if button sticks around - and leaning SB somewhat towards a made hand makes me somewhat tempted to call flop, but given the wetness of the flop I wouldn't hate a small raise either (primarily to force the button into making a calling mistake with a draw). Probably leaning call.

4!s are not that common at 1/3.

This is not the perfect flop. The 3-bettor probably has a tight range and you get stacked by KK and QQ.

Define tight range. Does it include AK?

Grunch:

Honestly, it's a tricky spot because our hand wouldn't seem to do well as a cold 4B, and it's going to be hard for us to realize our equity post. I think we could probably just fold and not be making a big error.

The flop dilemma perfectly illustrates the point. We could easily be getting coolered by either opponent here, and yet we're incentivized to raise.

Preflop is extremely meh, imo. We're not quite getting 20:1 IO and if dood really is getting a little out-of-line then it is less likely we get paid off when we hit (and otherwise good luck winning the pot 3ways when 3 overs flop). Plus it's not impossible for him just to have a good hand and we have huge RIO on boards like the one that just flopped. Plus it's not impossible to face an Button 4bet. But mostly, setmining really requires very multiwayness to offer really good immediate odds so we need very little IO posflop to actually make money. In this spot, we don't make money unless a 3rd postflop bet is called, and that's often very difficult to do.

As played, SPR is 5 and we're in position against the deeper stack. On a drawless board I'd lean to a flat as very few scare cards plus we can build the pot by keeping the person behind us in. On a more drawy board like this one with more action/hand killing cards I'd probably more lean to raising. I'd probably lean to offering a good price of $100 and hope no one can fold a Kx for that price.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Deke02 is the artist formerly known as deke01. Deke01 got tired of trying and failing to navigate the PW retrieval process. I hate captcha.
............

You guys have **almost** convinced me I play this wrong, but I would have set mined the same as Freecard based on the assumption BU is not an action player likely to 4B.

On the flop, I almost always want to start betting/raising with a set, but I'm looking at this draw heavy board. Any flush cards or 9 and higher is potentially bad. Both players having broadway cards is reasonable. I don't want to build a pot I am unwilling to defend on the turn.

Even if the turn pairs, I'm not crazy about my boat but would feel compelled to keep playing the hand. If either of them have a good KX or QX (likely) a paired board could beat my boat on the turn or river.

I know you guys will tell me I'm chicken manure, but I like to avoid situations where I can lose a big pile. I'm going to call Flop and hope to see an 8 or less non flush turn.

On nearly any turn, SB should bet again and I evaluate then.

Sent from my SM-A546V using Tapatalk

@ DekeN

Chicken manure line, imo. At large SPRs I think we can perhaps be more concerned about this stuff. But at small SPRs (and here we're only at 5) we should fairly happily commit ASAP with hands this strong.

GimoG

Reveal
Hero raise 175
BTN calls 175
SB folds
(495) Kc5cQd(9d)
x/x
River 4s
Hero all-in
BTN calls, turns over Qc4c

In general ranges get tighter and more nutty as you get deeper, here it looked pretty similar (JJ pure 4bets, and TT as a v. low freq. 4bet is +0.3bb or something) as it was cold 3bet by the time it got to H. Thought the sizes would make it more similar to 100bb, but solver raises less as BTN and then more as SB to make it close ... all the weird -0.3bb plays became pure folds, I wouldn't be shocked if that was because the sim ran a bit longer and just tidded up.

Seems too big on flop, massive neon sign for SB that you want to play for stacks.

Not sure about turn check when V has 90 behind, and will need like 15% equity to call.

Assume BTN only called flop to get SB to overcall, might have been genius if they find the fold (or miss two pair draw) on the river.

Turn check is terrible on the wet board, even though villain caught on river.

Preflop is probably good, because 3-ways and sort of deep. It is good if 3-bettor has a strong range, which he obviously did not.

Cold 4! preflop with this hand would be atrocious, but obviously should work with whatever when 3-better has garbage.

It's typically -EV to cold call a 3-bet OOP with an implied odds hand when the original raiser is yet to act.

Problems:
1. Equity realization- We can get pushed off of our hand preflop if the original raiser 4-bets. Postflop we'll be sandwiched between the 3-bettor and original raiser a lot, which mostly forces us to fold whenever we don't flop a set and someone bets, even though we may have the best hand unimproved a fair amount.

2. The relative position also makes it difficult to get value when we do hit a set. Even when we hit a set we need someone else to have a strong enough hand to pay us off.

3. There are occasional reverse implied odds situations when we run into set over set or whatever.

If there's a rare situation where cold-calling a 3-bet OOP is +EV, this probably isn't it because both ranges are too weak to assume we'll get paid off when we do flop a set. Yeah we stacked Q4 this time, but that doesn't mean the preflop call was good in the long run.

I'm not a fan of the postflop line either, but in this case the unorthodox line might have helped get us paid against villain's exact hand. After we flop the set we're mostly just looking for the best way to get all the money in, which is going to vary somewhat depending on the opponent.

Yeah, against this late position action, they both probably have weak ranges, so less implied odds, but hard to play the hand unimproved.

If some OMC 3-bets, then more reason to cold call, because he probably has AA/KK and isn't folding postflop.

I am not sure the call is bad though.

Totally agree
Didn’t want to say much until I got some replies, but I thought that was a bad move too, even though I might not have gotten paid otherwise.

It was just weird to me, I thought she would fold and SB would call - I knew she wouldn’t be aggressive and gave her a free draw to the flush. Not good

Though I much respect you guys, I disagree with any fold pre people. I was sure I wouldn’t be raised and I almost always get paid with a set. Small pairs are more valuable at low stakes than most would believe.

Few players see a set coming and most players want to call. The fact is the population stacks off with a lot of weak hands. I think implied odds are almost always there, despite the player types. This is not online

If you’re worried about the set over set monsters, I have nothing for you.

Very trivial preflop fold. You are not tag you are loose passive. Not even close to tag if you even considered this.

I recommend studying preflop if you are a new player. Gto wizard has free preflop charts you can study

I explained that I wouldn’t be 4Bet.
You must play higher stakes or online, because sets almost always get paid. You are right though, without a set, I’m folding a little pair most every time to aggression. It’s called set-mining.

Maybe there’s more sophistication in your rooms, but I believe you should always expect to get paid with a set playing 1/3.

You don’t have to go through the checklist, J just got off work & is ready to gamble - B has been through 3buyins, not a pair he doesn’t like - S is tired of being pushed around - E comes in, you better fold, T always plays KQ to the river, his favorite hand, etc.

Whatever, another online wizard

I fold pre and it's not a close decision.

One of the advantages of playing online back in the day was running a HUD and then checking your stats later over a huge sample size so you can see reliably where you lose money. This is what we did before solvers came along.

I digress, anyway flatting 3bets with small pockets is horrible for your winrate or at least it was for me. This applies even at the often cited 15:1 or 20:1 odds. I guess it might be different a full 200bb effective...but then again it might not be, because at 100bb you can write off oversets as the cost of doing business, but at some point stacks get deep enough to think again.

If you hit a set in a 3bet pot with one caller, is there a better chance of stacking someone than facing an open and one caller?