missed value vs aggro reg

1/3 450 effective

Villain is a mid 40s asian guy. I'm pretty sure he's a reg who usually plays at a different room and I've played 3/5 with him at that room before. I'm sure he's winning at 1/3 and probably 3/5 too although that's obviously not saying much. I view him as TAG preflop but think he overstabs against weakness postflop. Months ago I called down a triple barrel with QQ on a K high board at the other casino 3/5 game and was good but he may not even remember that hand.

Previous hh this session I opened HJ got two fish in CO and BB call and he called button.

Flop 8 6s 4s

Checks to him and he stabs 50 for pot I call and fish with like 80 behind calls CO.

Turn T

Check, check and he says all in. This is washington state with 300 max bet and he has like 340 total so not quite all of it can go in.

I fold and fish tank calls with 78. River bricks out and he announces 1 pair and the fish wins. I saw a 3 flash from the bottom of his cards so I'm guessing he had pocket 33s and was bluffing with the gutter.

OTTH

V is 450 effecive

the fish who called with 78 was very bad and limping lots of hands. UTG limps and that fish limps as well in mp.

V goes 24 on the button.

I look at AcQd in the BB. This sizing from him is probably value heavy but I think AQo is too strong and hard to play 4 ways OOP as a flat. So I still think there is value in a 3bet here vs a button iso. I go 100 and the fish fold and he calls

So we are going to a flop like SPR 1.5

Flop (200)

Q T 6 rainbow

This flop is decent but also connects quite well with his 3bet calling range. He probably has TT 66 although he may fold 66 sometimes. He would 4 bet gii pre with QQ at some frequency but I wouldn't be surprised if he plays it as a flat sometimes as well. He's going to have KQs not sure but think he may call the 3bet with QTs and KJs as well sometimes although those hands may choose a smaller iso sizing as well as consider folding to 3bet given we aren't super deep.

I think I would default to just cbetting this flop with TPTK. However, I had already decided I was going to play passively against this villain and try to exploit my perception of his tendency to overstab vs checks. I also just watched a hungry horse video about playing 3bet pots out of position that was encouraging lots of checking so decided I would check range on this board.

I check and he checks back

Turn Jr (200)

check check

Interesting turn card Brings in AK as the nut straight. Initially I planned to valuebet most turn cards if the flop checked through. But AK gets brought in and now AQ is actually one of the worst possible hands I can have here other than KQ or 99. He may expect me to bet a lot of my strong value hands on the flop so it looks a lot like I have AK and may be hard to get value. so I opt to check again. Maybe I should just lead now and try to charge his underpairs, T9s type hands that have straight draws

River 5r (200)

At this point his hand looks a lot like underpairs that just gave up. I decided I need to try to get some value and get a crying call so I lead 100.