"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread
It's been about 9.5 years and 350K posts of epicness, but "It Lives, It Lives" can live no more. The OG LLSNL Chat Thre
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
mark i never called the op a scammer, i just said that there wasn't any value in past posting winners unless he had the intention to scam so he should either post them live or not post them at all - that is the post that got deleted
but he's probably intending to scam, i've seen this exact thing play out a million times with sports betting scammers, they just start off sharing their winners after the fact, builiding up a following of idiots, and then finally announce, ok i'm launching a paid disc
What has prevented you from opening up a paid discord yourself?
i've thought about it a lot actually, but a lot of what i bet is simply finding bad lines so it'd be hard to charge people for info like "if you drive to snoqualmie indian reservation tonight you can find they are offering u134.5 on this college basketball game whereas the rest of the market has it at 133
i do originate for a bunch of stuff like golf though, and that is evergreen and could translate but again, it's hard to make money by marketing to people "win 55% of your golf h2h bets for a 3% roi and tons of negative swings"
it's much better to sell fake promises to bring in the idiots, one of the biggest scammers in the field is former poker scammer sean perry
he makes more money bringing in idiots, charging them a lot of money, and then when they quit after a month of losing replace them with fresh idiots
i've thought about it a lot actually, but a lot of what i bet is simply finding bad lines so it'd be hard to charge people for info like "if you drive to snoqualmie indian reservation tonight you can find they are offering u134.5 on this college basketball game whereas the rest of the market has it at 133
i do originate for a bunch of stuff like golf though, and that is evergreen and could translate but again, it's hard to make money by marketing to people "win 55% of your golf h2h bets for a 3%
Good sportsbettors don’t sell picks. They just bet and win. The best bettors aren’t on anyone’s radar and they have to be that way to stay in action (not get limited by books).
The more they tout, the more they’re out (of money).
Sean Perry, Blenzick’s brother, all the same pile of crap. Just yappy chihuahuas waiting for the next suckers credit card number.
yeah, ie if i were good enough to sell picks, i'd already be making millions instead of a middle income
big one today is a teaser of KC -2.5 and BUF +7.5 at -120
kept betting it until the rez finally said no mas, so it's not a massive position because they are scared money who are used to booking $20 bets but it'll still be a much better start to 2025 if this wins
Long day in the shop. Glad to have this project off the list.
Spoiler
Looks great
big one today is a teaser of KC -2.5 and BUF +7.5 at -120
kept betting it until the rez finally said no mas, so it's not a massive position because they are scared money who are used to booking $20 bets but it'll still be a much better start to 2025 if this wins
so i'll probably just ride out the variance as I essentially have BUF +7.5 at -120 tomorrow which is insanely good value (best line you can get anywhere is -310), but if i had life changing money at stake i'd probably hedge with either some BAL -7.5 at +260 (which is -ev imo so i won't) or just bet BAL moneyline and hope they win by less than 8 points for a middle
what a result in detroit tonight, i think washington turns into a pumpkin sooner than later but wouldn't mind seeing them ship it and then rename themselves the redskins again
Rats
Another project off the list, after an easier shop day. This one I've literally been working on (on and off) for the last six months. It didn't have a specific due date, so other projects passed it in the queue.
Spoiler
Wait, you found the Bills as a 7.5 dog at home? Crazy line.
Teaser. Adds 6 to the line
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sp...
and the updated thread 7 years later
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sp...
i missed all of that era sadly so just picking up scraps and not a retired millionaire like most of the ogs in those threads like daliman, sigs, and thremp etc
sigs btw went super weird, i was one of his first twitter followers, i believe he was my first follower as well
things are fine for a few years with typical random interactions, each time he responds to anything i tweet i gain like 20 followers because he's now such a big deal in the space
then one day this happens
and i could never respond because it got blocked
literally have no clue where this came from but he also blocked me on twitter the same day, we're still in the same discord today and just don't interact directly at all which is weird because i genuinely viewed him as a big mentor a few years back where he helped me out with a lot of things i was working on in the lab - my golf model, which is 100% responsible for my transition from dfs to outright sportsbetting would never have been possible without his aid and input, something i'm forever grateful for
he also helped immensely in my pivot to single game dfs, which became my primary dfs income shortly thereafter - he's a weirdo, but so am i and i got nothing but love for the guy
to this day literally have no clue what tf happened and blocked so unable to find out, no idea wtf he means by any of that statement, autist is a badge of honor in this field fwiw, and frankly almost no chance he is not a fellow autist nor did i ever claim he was as negative (possibly i called him one, i call people autists all the time but as a friendly pat on the back not as an insult as i'm pretty sure i'm autistic myself)
worst part is i can't even claim "oh he's schizo now" because he's still plugging along without any episodes since
