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Hand:
$2/5 w/ $10 straddle on.
UTG+1 ($1k) limps $10, CO ($750) $40, BTN ($300) call, Hero ($1k) call Qd10d in SB, UTG+1 completes.
Pot $165. Flop Ah10h10s. Hero x, UTG+1 donk $60 ($900 behind), CO raise $200 ($500 behind), BTN fold, Hero?
Comments/Notes: I'm mainly concerned if flatting or raising is the correct play. Flat or raise and why? If raising, $500 or $1k? Calling feels equally as strong as raising however we risk turn checking through and letting a hand like Qh9h realize equity freely. But, in a world of nitsssss.... Alright, bare with me here but let's just make the assumption that CO is NEVER bluffing here and will mistakenly (I would think) raise AA 1/3rd of the time. With Qd10d, let's walk through value we lose to and value we beat. There are precisely 4 K10 combos (including off-suit varieties) and 1 AA combo we lose to and 2 worse 10x combos (namely J10s and 910s) we beat. As crazy as it sounds, I think we can be folding here and look for juicier spots? Sort of the idea that in $2/5 and $1/3 there is merit to “chip utilization” (the notion that so many more juicy spots will arise during a session that bluffing a marginal spot or calling a marginal spot becomes -EV). Thoughts? If my assumption is true, am I crazy for thinking we can fold this spot?!?
Cheers,
ringring
6 Replies
Your combo counting is way off
-you forgot about AT (3 combos)
-you forgot about QT chop (3 combos)
-AA has 3 combos (or are you counting 1 as the only one he raises?)
-JT and T9 have 4 combos each (8 total)
Also is “co is never bluffing” a read or just you saying its a call even if hes never bluffing? Because youre behind T9+ AA (10 combos to 8 with 3 chopping)
Also utg+1 could have you beat too of course.
Im just calling here. If flush hits turn and co fires again im gone, otherwise im getting stacks in.
I will sometimes fold in marginal spots where i could be good but a passive player starts betting huge and just wait for a better spot, like when i have a weak trips hand and theres no draws on board.
In this hand though i would be jamming. You could very well be up against a combination of overplayed Aces, weaker trips, and combos draws like KJ, QJ hearts, or naked flush draws. I jam because a lot of people just call off w the flush draw and the weaker trips are never folding.
Just flat call. See what happens next.
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Tomark, good point. A10 yes. Assuming he's only raising 910 suited and J10 suited and then AA 1/3rd of time (so 1 combo instead of 3). I'm saying "he's never bluffing" because I just don't think this guy is raising anything but value in this spot; that is, he's never taking this line with AK or KhJh. And, yeah, call seems fine. You're never raising here at all then, I presume? Unless we have, say, Kd10d??
Yanasaur, yeah, I anticipated UTG+1 might stack off with KhXh and CO could call off worse 10s. I like to push the aggressive line and get the money in to extract max value in the scenario where I have both CO and UTG+1 clobbered. I didn't see myself folding turn or river on non-heart runouts so I figured best to pile it in. Similar to if on river, we have option to bet 50% of our stack or 100%... if we bet 50% but are never folding to a raise, why not bet 100% if we node lock to assume Villian never bluffs the 50% bet.
I can fold this spot if CO is never bluffing. I mean, what's he doing this with vs. UTG+1 and you?
I mean, I guess you can flat/evaluate, but I don't like our spot.
Im never raising. If i had AA or AT or TT im just hoping UTG+1 comes along, and i figure co is getting stacks in anyway. Maybe KT, but call is fine, just fade the heart lol. No point in semibluffing a royal draw since co isnt folding, plus usually theres a payout for royals.
