Suicide or Standard?

Board seems pretty neutral, you have middling strength hand and some outs which may or may not give you the best hand. I'm wanting to get to showdown as cheaply as possible and hope for a couple of low cards. Not many hands you can get value from (AQ, maybe AXs, QQ, KTcc, QTcc, T9cc, some baby clubs although SB should be very tight with button straddle on and this player seems tighter than most...some of the hands I've listed might not be in there). You lose to AJ, AT, KQ, JJ, TT all of which are very realistic holdigs. A small bet might be able to buy you a cheap river. I'd probably keep it simple and check.

1/3 Flop, All-In Turn

Good board for your range.

If you're wondering what worse hands our opponent might have: KTs, QTs, AQ (10 combos) + possibly Axs.

You lose to TT, JJ (6 combos), AJs (2), ATs (1), KQs (3) - a total of 11 combos.

But remember, he jams most of his value hands on the flop (and you obv call the jam), so by the turn, he has fewer of those.

A plan to GII regardless vs 10 combinations we beat and 11 we lose to doesn't seem very sound, particularly if this tight opponent finds a fold with a hand like AQ

I want to check here.

V 'should' be really tight here, but you said he's an idiot, so... I am having a hard time seeing a flush draw he could be on and the way you've described V, I can see KK-TT. Yes, even after the 3! If QQ-TT, we're obviously not thrilled with V's 6 set combos, vs 3 "Ugh, ofc the Ace hit." You were there; was V acting like they flopped a set?

V only had 380 to start, they've put 80 in already, and pot's 180. I'd think any bet more than commits, so it would be a shove, which V likely isn't calling with anything we're ahead of.

I don't see us being that afraid of a draw, though V can easily have the Kc or Qc. Guess I'd check back, see if V stabs turn, ship over that if it's a safe turn( non-K, J, T, non club, if we care.)

That's the situation up until the turn. On the flop he calls with KK, QQ, and some Ax hands (A9s, A5s, etc.). We have over 50% equity.

If he jams, we have to call because we do beat possible AQ, KTs, and QTs. AK split. There is enough equity to call.

OTT when we jam, he calls with the 10 combos that we beat and the 11 combos that we lose to. However, we can discount many of those combos because he likely jammed the flop with TT, AT, etc.

Betting and sigh-calling it off if he shoves. We’re resigned to Getting It In with TPTK at this stack depth.

I keep going back and forth on the best bet size here and don’t have a great answer. I think when we’re just calling it off anyway, we want to go on the smaller side to make his shoving range wider (ie: if we bet small, V will think he has more Fold Equity, widening his bluffing range.)

Like: if V has Jh9h and we bet $130 he will just fold, but if we bet $45 he might convince himself “this guy just has QQ” and be more inclined to rip it in.

And since he’s ripping all the hands that are beating us anyway (and we’re calling anyway), I think we should be mainly targeting these bad hands.

((We also don’t want him folding his KJ/KT/AQ hands, and they’re more likely to stick around with a smaller size.))

So I think the answer is bet-call $45.

Update: we check back, turn 4♣, V shoves.... Hero?

We get the count and its exactly 296 to call, pot is 6+80+20+3+80 = 182$, you are getting 1.61:1 or 38% equity needed.

One of the reasons we need to bet the flop is so we can’t get bluffed off our equity on the Turn.

As played, we need to fold now, no way around it.

Checking the flop is a major mistake.

For someone who doesn’t even play no limit holdem himself and who (if I'm not mistaken) doesn't use solvers, you're always awfully sure of your advice, often delivering it as if it's scripture. But half the time I have no idea why, so it really triggers me, to be honest. Why would you pretend to know everything in other people’s threads, as if you're some sort of poker authority, while your own threads are clearly proof of the opposite? So, I don’t know, maybe take it down a notch or two with the decisiveness now and again?

Yeah, that sucks. Fold.

Against the villain's range, you have roughly 38%, and AQ is the weakest part of his range here. If you discount AQ, you have 25% eq

Call with AxK♣.

Next time bet the flop

Nah, we're all learning here. And Davo actually explained his thoughts. It's up to you whether you agree with that or not. It's not the same as just writing an answer like "Bet Bet Call Fold."