runner's high
hand:
2/5/10 $1.3K eff
+1 limp, LJ limp, BB limp, Hero 70 AsQs STR , +1 and BB call
(220) flop 3s4h4d
x, Hero 90, +1 fold, BB flat
(400) turn 2s
x, x
(400) river 7s
Villian snap b 400, Hero? ($1.1k behind)
To jam or flat? Not too many worse flushes but 56s, A4, A5, etc. are all out there. Villain was classic loose passive arch, limp calling 65-70% of hands.
Cheers,
ringring
4 Replies
Flop bet seems a bit big.
On the river it's not just what he gets here with, but what he calls a raise with.
Eg. 44,77,33,22,43,42 are all plausible and all call a raise. Does A4 or even 65 call a raise?
We'd prefer if V can "float" flop with JsTs/9s8s etc. because they are much more likely to call.
Even at 1-2 I'd lean towards just calling, even though I'd assume I have the best hand a lot, unless I have reads that V likes to call rivers a lot. Would assume that would be worse at 2-5-10, unless you have an image of bluff raising AsKx here.
Hand is played well to this point.
I think it's a spot where shoving needs to be super standard. Snap pot bet from a loose passive might be the one thing that makes me reconsider, but all that means is he's super pumped about his hand, and our shove is trying to get calls from someone who would be super pumped about their hand in a straddle raised pot: trips, flushes, straights.
ETA: Looks like I'm wrong about this being "super standard". Ran a 3-way and HU sim. 3-way it's only shoving boats, and even HU it's only shoving NFD that unblock other broadway flushes.
Tough one. I don't think he's calling a jam with less than a flush (and even then might not), and I don't think there are many in his range, especially since we have the As, perhaps 45s, 56s, so while it seems nitty, I think I'm just calling
When a loose passive bets big on a paired board that’s very scary. Usually these guys don’t know how big the pot is and just bet an amount worthy of their hand strength.
This is closer to a fold than a raise but we can beat some hands he thinks are winning so we have to call and probably lose a lot.