Worst River in the deck, Houdini

I think it’s BARELY not a vbet in theory. Could easily become a jam with any read that villain is sticky.

It sucks cause it’s not a great bluff catcher. People might value cut themselves here, but they’re probably also under bluffing.

Flop should be a check a huge percentage of the time, btw, and x/shove looks good OTT.

I don’t think that’s like “why” you’re in this gross spot or anything, but just thought I’d mention it.

I’m never folding here, but there’s also almost no shot a shove will get called by something worse, so I think the play is to bet $280–targeting his sets and two-pairs—but still sigh-calling a raise. Even at these stakes top set should still be good at least the 1 in 5 times we need it.

Although to be honest if we bet $280 and he jams, I really don’t see a meaningful EV decision between calling and folding.

Perhaps that’s the case for betting even smaller—like, SUPER tiny, a $100 blocker bet, and folding to a jam.

But that’s getting awfully fancy for $2-$5 haha. (And are you EVER doing that with the nuts?)

Any read on villain? I typically play 1/3, and against a typical reg, a large river raise is so nutted, and so rarely a bluff, that I think we can discount him value raising for anything we beat on such a wet board.

Bottom line: I feel comfortable with say 175, fold to a raise

Next time, over-bet the turn brick.

As played - in theory, with the BTN and STR still in the hand on the flop, and BTN still in on the turn, HJ should only be calling with draws to the nuts, assuming he's calling turn with any draws, and not just the case K.

I dunno. I hate to check and let him check back with Kx. I hate to bet and have him jam with the nuts. Since all the draws came in, I might bet a little less than half pot, like $250, and fold to a raise. If V was calling with 65ss, he might not raise, fearing we were drawing to the nut flush.

ETA - just read the other comments. I would also like some reads on V here. My fear with betting really small is that an aware opponent may know what we're doing and turn Kx into a bluff, to make us fold AA or AK. A bad opponent may mis-read the situation, think Kx has to be the best hand, and raise.

If we're going to bet really small and fold, we may as well just check-fold.

bet 120, call a jam

Your posts are depressing me lol.

I am inclined to check the flop due to blocking top pair. As played im overbetting the turn to like $300. As played, i guess i jam and hope he has a set or 2p and makes a bad call. I think its jam or check fold.