KK facing 200bb river bet

rts

Without a diamond I would probably just fold otf, but that's just me. We have no cards coming (hardly) that will improve us, and in general, players don't usually donk out with less than at least two pair. It's rare for someone to do that with a draw in a 3 way 3 bet pot.

75 pre was fine, maybe go 4x since you're both early and deep.

Never fold the turn. I might call river here sometimes.

FWIW, I might choose to raise the turn.

Fold river.

Turn is closer than you'd think.

ETA: Scratch that: Fold turn, flop is closer than you'd think...

No offense. But folding turn would be pretty bad. It's maybe better to raise turn than to call turn. Both of those options are better than folding.

If it makes you feel any better, I wouldn't have the discipline to actually do it in a real hand.

Yeah, folding the turn (to a blank) would be bad but only because we called the flop which is imo the biggest decision point is in the hand.

The original raiser, who raise/called a 3bet from UTG+2 is now donking out on QT4ddd, probably something he would do with QQ/TT. We only beat AQ or Xd pretty much but would he even donk out with those hands?

Hero said he hardly plays with the villain, so the villain should know AA is extremely possible here too (of which he's probably afraid one of them's a diamond).

I would just ask myself how comfortable I would feel continuing ott and possibly otr with black kings if we call the flop in that spot. It's a decision for the majority of our stack (400 bb's with a one pair hand). If we weren't so deep I would be more inclined to call the flop, but that's just me (as usual).

Otf V donk bets half pot on a monotone board, into two opponents, and after flatting a 3 bet pre.

Despite getting two callers, he barrels turn too, for almost 2/3 pot.

This looks super strong: the very bottom of his value range is 2p, imo, plus AdQx.
The only reasonable bluffs on this board should contain the Ad, but which off-suited AX calls a 3 bet preflop? Only the already mentioned AdQx, imo.

Overall, I am onboard with calling flop, although not too thrilled with a player to act behind us.
Turn looks very much like a fold to me, unless V is extremely aggressive and the fish a huge calling station.

Don’t forget to mention EPvEPvEP on a two broadway board, but yeah you’re cookin

If I'm playing well I think I fold the turn. Flop was overcalled and V just happily fired again but bigger.

I'd be pretty unhappy on the flop, in a non-3bet pot I don't think I'd bet ... I'm less sure in a 3bet pot, but probably still no... so getting lead into isn't great.
QQ/AdX are "bluff" bets with flushes as value, normally but V shouldn't have many AdX hands (maybe one combo. of AdKs?). Do people really think competent V can have AdQx here?
I guess JJd maybe has to bluff if V can find it? KsKd also possible but crushing us. Maybe even AdAx?
So we are crushed by almost everything.

Kind of want to call the river if we get there ... flushes aren't scared of QQ here?
Although maybe people are like well I'm not x/f and H probably doesn't have any bluffs, so I might as well shove.

If you call flop and turn, call river.

Thanks y'all. I'm not sure about people saying to fold flop, the villain seemed competent enough and plays the $5/$10 regularly, which I found out a bit later on. But based on his $2k buyin I figured he was not scared money in any way and probably used to players at lower stakes being scared money. This was the leveling I did on the turn which made me consider the river call but I just don't think I could justify it without any real information on him. Utg was a massive fish, I was really not too worried unless the 4th diamond came in. He would have shown aggression OTF from what I had seen if he had 2p+. Big fish is also a $5/$10 player actually so there may even have been some history between the two of them that induced villain to take the line he did but that's just pure speculation.

The more I think about the turn call I'm not really sure what I was hoping for other than the river going x-x if no diamonds came but if I don't think villain is capable of bluffing river then is he ever bluffing this turn? I just feel like if he donks the flop with a single diamond then he kind of has to continue turn on a missed diamond doesn't he? He may have just been trying to get paid by the big fish with a big hand and I just got caught in the middle.

If he wasn't scared money, he was still nervous about the hand though

I always apply to poker the same metaphor I apply to flying which is "fly ahead of the airplane" meaning you should ALWAYS be thinking about your next move. When the guy donks out for half pot, yes calling the flop is easy with kings but do we think (especially a guy who plays higher) that he's gonna check the turn and river if we call? Most likely not, so if we're not comfortable calling another hp turn and river bet, why not just fold otf (this mostly applies to when we're very deep with medium strength or one pair hands).

I always see "good" players in these spots call a big bet otf or ott only to fold to a blank card on the next street. I always say to myself "what did this guy expect he was gonna do?"

Yeah I see your point, specially being this deep. I just can't fathom a fold to a donk with an overpair even on a monotone flop - especially on a monotone flop. It feels way too exploitable but I guess I have a lot of continue hands w AdX or overpair a w a diamond. And you're right that I am then left in no man's land when the turn or river bricks and he continues betting. I think the turn is just a sigh fold as his only real bluff is AdQx. Depending on the player type, he could very well lead flop with Qx type hand and check back turn then maybe stab river when no diamond gets there, unfortunately not this specific villain.

I think vs a competent Villain donk on this board, a fold on the flop makes more sense than vs a complete aggro fish. So I should have folded but I didnt have much info on villain other than a gut instinct (probably from the previous time I did play with him) that he was on the more aggressive side with his play style. Either way I think it was well played by villain.

Anyway thanks for the input, really has me thinking a lot about this spot and how I can adjust in future spots. Cheers

Ok but you have to remember you're in a 3 way 3 bet pot and the original raiser is the one donking out, this is hardly ever a bluff or a semi bluff, especially when he raised early pre and flatted a 3bet and why would you be exploitable, wouldn't AK with no diamonds fold otf?

cheers and gl

id fold turn, dont even think its close. raising turn seems like a good way to lose 200bb. like what is best case scenario here? the guy leading out has AdQx or like AdKx or something and the other guy has like JdJx? just seems like such a needle thread for a situation where you still have poor river visibility and few / no ways to improve and other guy has a bunch of equity. it just feels unlikely to me something like bare AQ ever takes this line from the guy in the middle esp random MAWG. i could be convinced (although im not sure people really donk random stuff here otf) that its different if its hu ott but even then meh.

I'm on board with folding flop and turn. We got a bad flop. We've an okay holding that can only get worse. Almost zero chance of ending up with the nuts. There is still a player to act behind us. Basically our only hope is that villain was donking with AdQx, and he slows down on the turn, and the fish hasn't out flopped us as well, and we somehow hold going into showdown. We're probably either flipping or dead, and have two more streets of betting to go. The situation is hopeless.

ok dont fold flop