Am I crazy?
I figured I have to post this here since itÂ’s already been about 350 hrs of running horrible and itÂ’s starting to become difficult for me not to be biased, adonno what to believe anymore and the confidence in my game is slowly approaching zero.
I wanted to post this here since multiple regs from the casino that I play at mentioned that this was an overplay (regs that I believe donÂ’t necessarily have a solid game but then again theyÂ’re the ones with 10K$ plus months and IÂ’m the one breaking even over the past 4 months).
2/5 8-handed, eff. stack is 800$ (Villain covers Hero). Not much history w Villain, sat down about 1hr before this hand, he seems to be the typical splashy rec, playing many pots, getting himself in many marginal weird spots.
Action folds to Hero in BTN, open to 15 w AsKd, Villain calls in SB, BB (reg) calls too.
Flop: KcTd9s - x/x/ bet 20, SB call, BB folds
Turn: 9h - x/bet 50/call
River: 3s - x/bet 200/call
For me this is a standard line vs a splashy rec, but then again after running so bad lately I am starting to doubt myself.
As a general rule, if you think your biggest leak is value betting too thinly then your game overall is in pretty good shape, there are far worse problems out there. This is indeed pretty thin but at low stakes it's unlikely to be a major error, you've faced no aggression so might as well keep prodding. Pot sized river is too big though, make it half pot and fold to a raise. Checking back either turn or river are also fine
If it's been 350 hours and you're running horrible then it's a you thing, not a running horrible thing. Figure out what's going wrong.
in terms of the 10k folks, not buying it. You can be a winning player in general and still not make enough to cover rake and tips. Let's say they average 10bb per hour, that's them sitting in a card room for 50 hours a week. That's more than a full time job. It's really unlikely they're reliably ever making that.
Why would it be impossible to have a bad variance freq for 350 hrs? I’m not saying you might not be right, I’m just asking what’s ur train of thought.
As for the other regs, I didn’t say it was a rule, but there are people that have had months like that (me included, in a far far past 😃).
As a general rule, if you think your biggest leak is value betting too thinly then your game overall is in pretty good shape, there are far worse problems out there. This is indeed pretty thin but at low stakes it's unlikely to be a major error, you've faced no aggression so might as well keep prodding. Pot sized river is too big though, make it half pot and fold to a raise. Checking back either turn or river are also fine
It’s so funny how my brain works in online vs live population. As mentioned before, I’m a winning online NL200 player, been playing poker for the past 8-9 years. Even earlier today I’ve had a similar spot online and by default my reflex was to x turn.
Now looking back at the hand it is obvious that if I bet turn, I must mix some x/b33 OTR, never that size (unless I have proof that villain is a huge rec).
I think the main problem is this overall running quite bad period, and without realising it I’m trying to force some plays.
Tnx everyone for ur replies.
If it's been 350 hours and you're running horrible then it's a you thing, not a running horrible thing. Figure out what's going wrong.
in terms of the 10k folks, not buying it. You can be a winning player in general and still not make enough to cover rake and tips. Let's say they average 10bb per hour, that's them sitting in a card room for 50 hours a week. That's more than a full time job. It's really unlikely they're reliably ever making that.
You can certainly run bad for 350 hours in live cash. I think my longest breakeven was 400 hours. Plenty of vloggers have shown 500-600 hour breakeven stretches. Obviously it's case by case, and up to the individual to analyze their level of play. However, 350 in live poker is not a very significant sample, and you can definitely be beating a game while going through a rough 350 hours.
If it's been 350 hours and you're running horrible then it's a you thing, not a running horrible thing. Figure out what's going wrong.
I remember seeing a quote from a super famous pianist which was roughly "when people ask me if they'll be able to make it to be one of the best, I immediately reply no to all of them" ... the above feels like that kind of advice. Which is to say:
Yes, you can def. run bad for 100s of hours live ... if you keep studying and try to get better, you'll eventually run better and you'll be better. If you start playing 74o because it hit for everyone else, or just give up, then the advice it is a you problem was always true.
If it's been 350 hours and you're running horrible then it's a you thing, not a running horrible thing. Figure out what's going wrong.
in terms of the 10k folks, not buying it. You can be a winning player in general and still not make enough to cover rake and tips. Let's say they average 10bb per hour, that's them sitting in a card room for 50 hours a week. That's more than a full time job. It's really unlikely they're reliably ever making that.
You should see my graph lol.
Not a good board to overbet the river but if I was going to do it I’d want AA and not AK.
Results?
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