Punts or Standard Spots?
Ran into these three spots in the past two weeks or so. Would love feed back on all hands, too loose? Standard spots, just ride the variance?
Hand #1 - Mohegan Sun 1/2 NL
V1 - MP 300
V2 - Button300
H - MP +1 300
V1 makes it 15 pf, H calls with A10dd, V2 calls, along with another caller (could get behind a 3bet pf)
Flop (60ish)
Qd8d4c
x, V1 bets 20, H calls, V2 makes it 60, fold, V1 calls, H ships....thoughts?
Hand #2 NH poker room 1/2 NL
V1 MP- 180ish
H button - covers
a few limps to H who makes it 15 on the button with Q8hh, four total callers including V
Flop (60ish)
Qs9h6h
x,x,x H bets 30 V calls all others fold
Turn (120ish)
Qs9h6h10d
V open jams for 120, H?
Hand #3 NH poker room 1/2 NL
V UTG+1 - 180ish
H button - covers
H has button straddle on and there is two calls in the blinds, UTG+1 raises to 20, one call in MP, H calls with Q10cc, blinds fold
Flop (70ish)
9c8c7d
V open jams about 150, other player folds, H?
22 Replies
In hand 2 and 3, once you get to the final decision point I think it's OK to call it off but I would have folded preflop in both hands.
Actually I would have folded preflop in hand 1 too (or 3bet), but as played, I would rather raise the flop the first time than ship over a raise from someone else. If you do choose to call once, I'd probably call one more time and see if you can hit a diamond, ace, or backdoor straight draw and see if V2 bets the turn again and for how much.
EDIT: Actually I could see myself making a tight fold in hand 2 now that I think about it.
For H3, even if V has JT, you still have 43% and only need 40 and change. So call.
H2, you block 87, but V's betting like they have that or KJ. They'd open KJ vs limp it, right?
You need 33%, and if they only have KJ/87, you have 22%. Only 87s, 26%. T9s/87s, 36%. Any reads? Readless, it's close, probably folding.
H1, the problem is that I don't think you act pf with the hand you're claiming to have post-flop (QQ). Aren't you raising V1 with 88/44 vs call-backraise/jam? And arenÂ’t you 3b QQ pf?
I don't hate the jam, I think it puts tons of pressure on people. I just think your semi-bluff isn't going to fool a thinking V. What are you ranging V1 and 2 on? Thinking more about it, I probably fold to the V2 raise ap. V2 very easily can have 88/44 here.
I think I would call H1. Don’t want to force out a dominated draw and it doesn’t seem like there is fold equity. Don’t think jamming is a punt though. I also think I would strongly consider folding pre to this huge size. 3bet is cool too if it’s a loose player.
H2 I would overlimp pre, especially if I’m at a table where my ISO is going to get called most of the time. I also would check back the flop. As played, I would call the turn shove and hope to get there.
H3 fist pump call. Definitely not folding pre as the button straddle and 3bet at this stack depth seems like a bad option.
Hand 1 You don't represent any value. You only have 88/44 and unlikely you would only flat 1/3 pot with two players behind on this board. Just call getting a decent price to draw.
Hand 2 I would limp behind most of the time. The turn is tricky... he's telling you he has a straight or two pair which I'm inclined to believe.
I gave him a range of KQ-KJ, QT, T9, 87s, and 1/2 of all 87o and we have ~30% equity needing 33%. So we would need him to bluff a hand like JT or something to call.
Hand 3 Is a snap fold for me preflop. 11% of your stack with essentially a suited connector vs his range... no thanks. Postflop it it is an easy call to the all in - you are >50% to win vs his most likely hand an overpair, and getting the right odds even if he flips up 99 or JT.
H1 - Calling is better. You don’t want V1 to fold any worse draws and V2 is pretty much never folding.
H2 - I wouldn’t ISO w/ this hand it’s a bit too weak imo since you’re almost always
Going to get called in a bunch of spots.
I’d bet smaller on the flop or even check back. As played you have to call.
H3 - Call
H1 - Calling is better. You don’t want V1 to fold any worse draws and V2 is pretty much never folding.
I make some of my best wins out of aggressively pushing big draws, so my gut reaction is always towards agro. I was about to rudely explain why shoving is better, bc of the FE, and in the process I planned on savaging not only you but your ancestors as well.
But as I was typing my response and counting chips and the pot, I realized how much better the call is. It costs only $40 to call into a pot of $220 vs shoving $265. I would have never taken the time to do that IRL.
At least one of these Vs is very likely drawing to a loser flush so my outs are thinner in a 3 way AI fest, and if the flush hits, I'm very likely to stack him. The call is much better, my losses are smaller and my wins are bigger.
Lesson learned. Thanks. You and your ancestors are perhaps not such bad people after all.
H1 fold pre. without reads that MP is insane opening 7.5x with any2, then 3bet is probably better.
On flop you can raise the first time or just call again.
H1 - 3bet preflop (or fold). Don't backjam as you'll just knock out worse flush draws.
H2 - fold preflop. I would probably check the flop multiway with a weak top pair and weak flush draw. As played you need 33% to call the open jam. Against exactly 87s you only have 25%, but if you include some sets/2p your odds improve slightly and if there's just a chance he's got some high equity draws then you're OK to call. For example against a range of 87s, 66 and AThh you have 35% which is enough to call. EDIT - didn't spot that KJ got there - yeah this is probably a fold unless there are enough semibluff/pair-plus-draw hands to justify calling. Probably close.
H3 - this is a basic snap call, you have enough equity even if he has the nut straight
Appreciate the feedback - seems like Hand 1 was the biggest punt of the three.
Results
Hand 1 - H jams, and gets called by both players - V2 has Q4ss and V1 had KQo (no diamond) and binks the Kh on the river to scoop
Hand 2 - H tank calls and is shown 109o and can't improve
Hand 3 - H snap calls and is shown AKcc?! and can't hit a T or a 4
All 3 hands are fold pre
I think hand 3 is actually the biggest punt because of how not-close folding preflop is and how big an overbet you’re having to call. Every decision you had in hand 1 was a much smaller mistake than some of the decision points in the other 2 hands.
Getting better than 3/1, closing the action, with position throughout the hand, with 40% of a royal flush (© Andrew Neeme)? Calling is fine.
I think hand 3 is actually the biggest punt because of how not-close folding preflop is and how big an overbet you’re having to call.
Not sure you saw that H had the BTN straddle.
Pre. seems an auto call for $15 (3bb more) on the BTN closing the action.
Flop sucks for the 2x overbet but the only two combos. we don't want to see are AcKc and AcJc.
We need 40% equity and have stupid amounts of equity against a monsters only range:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - 9c8c7d
PLAYER_1 QcTc
PLAYER_2 AcKc,AcJc,AAc,KKc,QQc,JJc,TT,99,88,JT
31680 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
QcTc|46.1869%|45.3914%|1.5909%|14380|504|
AcKc,AcJc,AAc,KKc,QQ...|53.8131%|53.0177%|1.5909%|16796|504|
[/table]
Even if V shows AcKc it's less than an $8 mistake to call.
The call / back jam line is often a strong hand and could get either or both villains to fold KQ / AQ.
The call / back jam line is often a strong hand and could get either or both villains to fold KQ / AQ.
That's less true on the flop IMO, but it doesn't matter because V2 raising a bet+call and then folding on the same street basically never happens.
Like I would snap bet 100s giving 5 to 1 everytime (live 1-2 upto at least 200bb) someone x/r flop into a bet+call that they don't fold and would feel slightly bad for taking people's money.
Yes, V1 folds more often but we mostly want more people in if we don't get everyone to fold when we have nut draws.
I absolutely saw the button straddle. We are being asked to call $15 when the original raiser is only $180 deep. The small number of big blinds we have to call misses the point; our stack odds are woefully terrible and there is no reason not to fold.
EDIT just to add, calling the flop once we get here is fine but the fact that we’re calling it off gives us RIO problems with preflop.
EDIT 2: OP said the blinds limped so we aren’t even closing the action! That makes it even worse!
That's less true on the flop IMO, but it doesn't matter because V2 raising a bet+call and then folding on the same street basically never happens.
Like I would snap bet 100s giving 5 to 1 everytime (live 1-2 upto at least 200bb) someone x/r flop into a bet+call that they don't fold and would feel slightly bad for taking people's money.
Yes, V1 folds more often but we mostly want more people in if we don't get everyone to fold when we have nut draws.
The flop raise is tiny and lots of low stakes players raise to see where they’re at. We can also get called by worse. I think call and jam both print.
I absolutely saw the button straddle. We are being asked to call $15 when the original raiser is only $180 deep. The small number of big blinds we have to call misses the point; our stack odds are woefully terrible and there is no reason not to fold.
I mean I'm very tight preflop, and didn't consider folding, so I'm kind of curious...
Theoretical hand history:
UTG limps
V UTG+1 raise to 9 - 80ish
MP calls
H button QcTc - covers and magically only needs to call $6
...and TBF parts of this feel worse to me, and maybe I can find a fold vs. some, but I doubt I snap fold.
Not sure where you're going by changing the example, maybe I missed something, but having gained all my original experience and fundamentals playing live, I had it drilled into me that making cold calls preflop has to be based on stack sizes, not based on pot odds or how cheap in absolute terms the price is that I'm getting.
Tried to move it out of the BTN straddle to a normal 1-2 open, but with roughly the same stack sizes (in BBs).
I had it drilled into me that making cold calls preflop has to be based on stack sizes, not based on pot odds or how cheap in absolute terms the price is that I'm getting.
So let me try again in just BBs...
V UTG+1 - 36bb-ish
H button - covers
BTN 1bb
SB 0.2bb - calls
BB 0.4bb - calls
...folds to...
V UTG+1 - raise to 4bb
MP calls
H with QcTc - calls 3bb?
...maybe if I have reads that BB/SB don't have terrible ranges and can even limp/3bet here a decent amount, I can find a fold. Maybe.
It's kind of difficult, because I have no idea what a robot would do here vs. just a UTG+1 open and from experience I'd be shocked if most people putting the BTN straddle on at 1-2 folded QTo here.
I personally am never calling a preflop raise with any suited connector-type hand when the raise is for this high a fraction of the effective stacks. 1/12 is just too big. I want it to be 5% or less. 1/12 is not even close.
Now, do I have this hand in a range that I would at least sometimes raise over a limper? Absolutely. But I try to be very sparing with my cold calls.
Hand 1 is a call
Hand 2 fold pre, fold again
Hand 3 Vernon is right, typically you would want 20-25 x the raise available in direct plus implied odds, and this isn't even close, fold preflop, as played, well, what more did you want after the bad preflop call? Snap call the allin.