Flopped Set VS Turned Flush Draw

It looks like the pot is $315 and you have to call $200. Against some players it's an easy call or fold - your read will matter.

Your flop play looks like you have a strong hand so it's a little easier to see villain value betting a flush. But they could have AQ, 44, or an odd two pair and be confident they're ahead. Again, reads matter.

Yeah this player had just sat down, maybe his 3rd or 4th hand? Limited info on him

I would limp in but that's my style.

I would just bet out on the flop as lottsa draws / TP to get value from. As played I would also check/raise (although I probably go larger).

Next time include pot size on each street so we don't have to do the math ourselves. I also check/call the turn.

I'm too lazy to add up what we're being asked to call on the river. Prolly (maybe?) a sigh fold against most unless he is capable of playing JT this way. Gross spot.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Sorry haven't posted in a couple years

Good point with flop value bet

Can't seem to find edit button but pot sizes are:

Flop 48$
Turn 178$
River Jam 383$

Yes very gross spot lol

Think I make a very exploitable pot sized c-bet on the flop. We can get called by top pair and draws. Charge those hands the max, and make the rest of the hand easier to play.

Alternatively, bet 1/3 pot and make some exploitable folds when the obvious draws get there.

If we're going to check raise the flop as the PFR, we need to go bigger, at least $80, if not $100.

As played, call turn. I'd probably block bet the river for around 40% pot, and fold if wr get raised. At low stakes, there's very little chance our opponent turns some worse showdown value into a bluff by raising.

Ended up tank folding

Villian said after session he had a flush

Bet flop. Flop xr is too small, 85-100 much better. River is kind of close, I don't mind folding - main concern is villain overplaying qx or 44.

I think 44 will 4-bet the flop, and if they are too afraid to do so seeing mubsy 99 or QQ they aren't going to blast after the flush gets there. This is from typical 1/3 player a flush about 90% of the time. As other have pointed out if you have a specific read otherwise go with that.

As played c/r needs to be larger. The board just smacks the typical over call range. JT/QJ/any 2 clubs/Q9/KQ/J9 will probably call a larger sizing. They will call just about any amount. If going for c/r I would make it $110.

Bet flop, yes other others have said if you're going to check-raise make it bigger. Turn is fine, obviously 80% of the time the flush draw doesn't come in on the turn and y have an easy follow-up bet but such is life.

I'm very comfortable with this never being a Queen and there shouldn't be any two pair. The only bluffs are JT and would JT always call the check-raise when some of their outs aren't clean? Maybe they would to the small sizing. There has to be a chance 44 rips it on the flop as well occasionally. There's already a caller preflop so he can have all the suited Aces, some suited Kings, all the remaining suited Broadways and some connectors, maybe the best one-gappers like T8cc as well. Probably about 15 flush combinations. Balanced against that you have 44 (let's say all 3) and an unknown number of JT (probably not many to take into account the loose-passive preflop play followed by aggressive postflop route, so maybe another 3 combos???). All flushes play like this but there's no guarantee that other hands play like this though, we're guessing against

Pot is something like 310 and the shove is for 200, I believe. You need to be good 30% of the time; I don't think you're quite there.

Good fold on the river given your stack size. Against unknowns, you have to assume your average low stakes player. The average low stakes player maybe overplays a shove with 44 but not Qx. Average players play too many suited cards.

Does anyone fold the turn? Do people like the hero’s check? Why not bet 65 on the turn if we plan to call V’s bet anyway? Why give a free card?

Hard to fold turn, given the price we're getting, holding a set, and still having the ability to fill up on the river.

I didn't think much about the turn, but...I could go either way, but I think I prefer to barrel small, rather than check. As far as the sizing goes, $65 isn't a very large bet, right around 1/3 pot, so I would have to wonder if betting $65 after we check-raised to $70 on the flop looks weaker than check-calling $65. Seems like it would look weaker, so maybe check-calling $65 is better than betting 1/2 pot (around $90), and then check-folding the river.

Part of the reasoning is why I prefer to make an exploitable big c-bet on the flop. We could do that with over-pairs, 2P, sets, draws, whatever. But when we check-raise, and then check turn, it looks pretty much like exactly what it is, "Oh, $hlt, the flush came in, and my set is toast."

If we're going to check-raise flop, we need to barrel turn. Or, we can c-bet flop, and check-call or barrel turn.

Other than over-betting flop, which looks insanely strong, and then check-folding turn, it doesn't seem like there was much hero could do to avoid losing money here. The only other line that would seem to make sense is c-betting flop small, and then bet-folding on turn or river, unless we fill up.