Hero folding middle set?

For a second I thought flop was monotone and could get on board with a fold since he's just confused with his weak flush. But flush aint there yet, however all manner of draws that might even include TP are. I think you can gii on turn safely here. I just dont see any straights/sets 3betting turn, they dont need to. He has position and can just call and give you rope on the river. Your range looks kinda bluffy after the flop x/c in the sense that wtf could you have? Thing is if V cant put you on anything (and I dont think this is a speech, he's genuinely confused) and wants to get the money in then his range is reduced to all sorts of hands that look good in a vacuum. He may even suspect that your line is completely FOS and just spaz 3betting with no showdown value.

Flop is rainbow or has two clubs???

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

Flop is rainbow or has two clubs???

Probably a better gii if two clubs than if rainbow. Tbh I think it's a good pre Vs utg plus 1 open? Tough spot now. Agree probably fold if rainbow. If there is a flush draw it must be closer?

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

sorry for the confusion. flop is 4 6 8 full rainbow. No flush draw available on the flop or turn.

I would just bet the flop.

As played, I don't blame you for folding. I'm not sure I could have folded here myself, but this seems like one of those spots where I would blame myself after the hand for not just folding to the flop 3bet. The speechplay is also very worrying.

I just dont understand why everyone waits for the turn to value raise.

Bet out flop FOR SURE. As played, id say 66 isnt really strong enough to raise. its borderline, but if i were to raise, itd be on the flop, not the turn. Like, you lose to a lot of combos, not just every single flush but also 57 and 88.

IMO you way overplayed your hand with the check raise and this is a trivial fold.

There's no flush btw

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

I'm never folding unless this is one of the nits at my game and even then I'm probably calling. I'm almost always shoving here (I overplay hands though I think, especially OOP) but I mean you played it to trap by just x/calling flop and now he's putting in stacks so I don't see how you can fold, and calling commits you anyway, so I just 4-bet jam.

Would be a gangsta play/speech with 77

So flop and turn are rainbow.

Obvious flop bet is obvious, there's one person behind and he's calling way more than betting and I don't really want to x/r middle set here or have it check through.
The big problem with x/r is that you just don't have much that wants to do it. Like T9s with backdoors can maybe bluff raise, but why not just bet. 97s you probably don't even have all combos. of. So it's mainly sets and people will correctly fold a lot.

After the flop play I just x/c turn, again what bluffs do you ever play x/c flop and x/r this turn on? If BDFD hit you could maybe have that combo. of 97s or even the two A7s/A9s combos. if you are very special.

After getting 3bet on the turn you are in a bad spot, you probably don't ever have QQ (BTN also probably doesn't) here so it's 75s/88/66 ... but again you probably only get here with 44 as a worse hand. Your raise isn't small either, he bet over half pot and you over 3x raised.
Would probably be very live read based after the turn 3bet, if I thought V could be overplaying 44/86s/64s or even Q8s. If he's bad/god/insane enough to do it wider I'd assume you wouldn't post, and I know common advice is to never fold sets at low stakes ... but, eh.

Also should maybe mention that I think raise (4bet turn) is clearly the worst option.

Sorry for the confusion caused due to my typo. Flop and turn are full rainbow. No flush draw available on either street, part of the reason why I think his range is weighted more towards value.

Definitely agree with the flop betting out part. I was trying to be tricky with my xc and xr turn line, and I was very surprised to get 3bet on the turn, esp when my opponent was in position.

I have no particular read on this Villian, definitely not the tightest nit in the planet, but not the type of lag that would putting in 300bb trying to make a move without a good reason. I just struggle to think he would overplay hand like two pairs on a single raised pot, when the ranges could be much wider.

Depends on how good I think he is. With your line you're basically waving a flag saying "I have a set" (or the occasional combo draw). Then he gives a speech and re-raises vs a strong range; good LAGs don't push back in spots like this. The only ? is if he overvalues 44/Q8s. I'd probably lean fold but you were there and I wasn't.

Why? You're planning to x/fold river when he shoves his last 850 into almost 2k?

I think this hand plays much better just betting out flop when checked to. As played, I think the turn raise is overplaying your hand quite a bit and you should probably fold to the 3bet unless you have reason to believe this guy doesn't have a good feel for board texture and will happily stack off 44 here.

Agree bet flop. Call turn. Fold or call the shove is for me totally read dependent. Besides raise folding in the bb, has the v called any hands? Limped? Drinking alcohol? Talked intelligently about a hand? Against a regular, I’m probably folding.

Bet 1/3 pot on flop.

As played, when V bets 1/2 pot on flop, into two opponents, gets called, and then bets 1/2 pot again on turn, he's probably not bluffing often enough or betting much worse often enough to x/r. So I'd just check call.

Yes, he could have 44, or some 2P, but he could as easily have 88 or 75s, and he's not going to be acting confused with most of those hands. His speech actually worries me, because it sounds like he's trying to weaken his range. He wouldn't do than without a pretty nutted hand.

Based on your limited read, it sounds like this V doesn't double down on his bluffs. I hate to do it, but I think I fold to his 3B.

The opposite, I'd much rather call and x/call all rivers than raise turn. We don't want him to fold 44 or Q8s or whatever random cards we are winning against. He's never folding 75/88 or even QQ, so raise just means he always calls when we are beat and maybe sometimes finds a fold when we are winning.

Only reason to raise is if we have all three reads:

1. That he's often 3bet turn with worse.

2. He checks back river with all his bluffs, and a lot of his worse made hands if we call.

3. He calls a decent (enough to balance 75s/88 at least) amount of his worse value hands, if we shove turn.

the reason we dont want to call his 3bet and give him action on the river is for the same reason you dont think we should gii on the turn. Our hand looks so strong at this point he knows he'll have zero FE. What could he possibly be hoping to bluff when we CALL a turn 3bet? That just looks like we're trapping with the nuts the whole way through. He's never bluffing the river but he might bluff the turn like this, or overplay a 2nd best hand because he cant put hero on anything yet. Does hero jamming turn look strong? Yes, but it's the only way to get him to commit with draws.

Yea I overplay hands in these spots. Once 70% of my stack goes in I just figure dump it all.

Crap. I cant read. Disregard my post lol.

i refuse to believe someone does this ott with a better hand lol

think your turn sizing is probably too small but dont raise turn if you're not willing to play a very large pot

Respectfully, are you saying that because you wouldn't do this with a better hand? Logically, V should NOT raise with a better hand, but that doesn't mean no V ever would.

A lot of low stakes players could over-play 88 or 75 when they get check-raised on a disconnected high card / brick turn. If I'm in V's spot with 88 or 75s, I'm putting hero on 2P with Q8s, or some slow-played flopped set.

Most low stakes players don't have much of a check-raise fold button. I could see V deciding that hero is just going with his hand, whatever hero has, and so V isn't worried about hero folding when he 3B's huge, and he just wants to get stacks in before a scary river card slows hero down.

When someone is contemplating a risky play, they typically don't make a speech before betting or raising, especially not one that sounds like it would weaken their range.

Like, if someone says, "I think you're bluffing, so I raise", that makes no sense, and usually means "I want you to think I'm bluffing". He's not going to say, "I don't know what you're doing, but I don't think you have a Q", and then raise with some marginal hand.

for whatever reason i thought 900 was way bigger ott - like 3.5x our raise, and there was a fd otf. is odd spot now tbh