Good bluffing spot or not?

Good bluffing spot or not?

Ho everyone.
So in this hand im in the hj with 10️ J️.
Raise 15 (standard raise RFI) and co calls.
Btn,a reg with low 3bet frequency makes 80.
Effective stack is 1100 (mine).
I call hj folds.
Flop 9️ 3️ 4
Check btn makes 80 i call.
Turn (335) 2
Check btn 185 i call.
River (705) 5
Is this a good spot to bluff?

07 August 2024 at 10:53 PM
Reply...

18 Replies



Fold pre,

River is a give up,

Blocking TT-JJ not good & bluffing is just hail mary hoping QQ-KK fold while obv running into more Ax combos, would be -ev overall barring some alterior live read not mentioned


Indeed, fold pre, fold turn.

Awful board to bluff, too many of button's bluffs just got there.


What stakes are these, 2/5? Villain's sizing is a really big imo. 5.3x with just one cold caller and he is in position. I would just fold. Especially when sometimes we call and CO calls, now we have to play OOP to two players with a hand that could be dominated.

River would be a very non-standard bluff. Honestly his turn sizing isn't super strong and I think he can be bluffing with the best hand a lot on flop and turn, namely with A high. 2/3 to full pot on turn are more consistent with value imo. And because hearts are missed you may get looked up on the river by an overpair still. Especially if we go half pot. I think 600-700 should be your size on the river of you wanted to bluff.

I don't really like it. Too many A highs plus maybe AA that have a straight and will call.


Do you think V folds a wheel here?


I like the RFI stab, but would fold to a V who raises big but 3B rarely.

AP - On the flop, I x/r 3x his bet. If he checked, I would bet turn. If he called my flop x/r, I would go with a read. If his flop call was pained, I bet again. If I read him as pot committed as some with an over pair can be, I check turn.

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Pre is an insta fold to the 3b - you're OOP and you don't have the odds to hit 2P+.

Flop - I think call is fine.
Turn - is a fold.

AP, give up, unless you've seen he can fold KK, QQ here *and* he would continue betting AK on the turn. That feels like a big "if", so absent that it's a pretty trivial give up on the river.

Also what ae you repping???? Sets raise turn, and what Aces do you have? Most should fold pre, and the ones that don't should be folding flop or turn.


by mkaracas k

Ho everyone.
So in this hand im in the hj with 10️ J️.
Raise 15 (standard raise RFI) and co calls.
Btn,a reg with low 3bet frequency makes 80.
Effective stack is 1100 (mine).
I call hj folds.
Flop 9️ 3️ 4
Check btn makes 80 i call.
Turn (335) 2
Check btn 185 i call.
River (705) 5
Is this a good spot to bluff?

So low 3 bet frequency and a big 3 bet. I'd fold to the 3 bet given V description. If I played I'd put V on AK, JJ+ range and play fit big or fold on flop. As is when the fd flush misses I think you get called on bluffs far too often for them to be +ev.


Ty for your replies.
I agree that given the big size of the 3 bet this is a fold pre.
But going to the river, knowing that villain won't double barel with A high but only premium like QQ+ isn't this a good candidate to bluff with??
Unblocking QQ KK is good here and i think i can rep easily any As combo (AJ+ and A2-A5s even though i won't flat with those, villain doesn't know it).


Why won't he barrel turn with an Ace on a blank (with range advantage) and picking up a wheel draw? Would seem a fairly standard turn barrel.

Fold preflop like everyone else said.

The problem with river bluff is that you shouldn't have any 6x, and as hitchens pointed out, you folded most of your Ax on the flop. That said, I'd say most people would probably find a fold with a lot of their KK-TT hands so it's probably closer than people are suggesting.

The better the opponent, the less likely I would be to bluff this.


No.

You block JJ, TT and flush draws. Your opponent can easily have AK or AQ and was double barreling on the turn, along with AA. But the problem, like what others have said, is that your line looks so much like JJ, TT or a flush draw, so you will never get KK/QQ to fold. The only hand you may get to fold is KQ of hearts, which is a player with a low 3 bet frequency is probably not 3 betting.

Save your money. I would fold on the turn. You are getting not quite 3-1 and your implied odds are pretty low.


by moxterite k

Why won't he barrel turn with an Ace on a blank (with range advantage) and picking up a wheel draw? Would seem a fairly standard turn barrel.

Fold preflop like everyone else said.

The problem with river bluff is that you shouldn't have any 6x, and as hitchens pointed out, you folded most of your Ax on the flop. That said, I'd say most people would probably find a fold with a lot of their KK-TT hands so it's probably closer than people are suggesting.

The better the opponent, the less likely I would

He probably won't barel turn on a 3 bet pot with AK,not many people will there unless you have a specific read your opponent will fold 1010+...
I agree with the preflop fold.
AP though,i think i can rep many A high hands even though i wouldn't call with them preflop my opponent doesn't know this and this is the key.
I think with JJ-KK he won't call on the river sowith this in mind maybe it's not a bad bluff after all....


by mkaracas k

Ho everyone.
So in this hand im in the hj with 10️ J️.
Raise 15 (standard raise RFI) and co calls.
Btn,a reg with low 3bet frequency makes 80.
Effective stack is 1100 (mine).
I call hj folds.
Flop 9️ 3️ 4
Check btn makes 80 i call.
Turn (335) 2
Check btn 185 i call.
River (705) 5
Is this a good spot to bluff?

It's your money. What's his range? He's betting like he has an overpair. That's AA, KK, QQ, JJ and possibly 1010. Does he bet Ak twice? you block 10's and j's.

6 combinations of the pairs. 12 combinations of AK. 18 combinations that he can have a straight with. You could discount say half of them.

That gives 18 combinations of KK, QQ, JJ and a few of 1010. You block jj, 1010, so 3 of each of those. 6+6+3+3 though discount one of the 10's since less likely.

16 combinations are likely to fold to a bluff
~12 combinations have the straight

you likely need to bet large to get it through. There's already 705 in the middle. What percentage of the time does your bluff have to work? How ikely is he to have a made hand and fold.

Figure out how to work some of that out.


The river is probably not a great spot to bluff. I would have been more likely to raise the flop, repping sets, while hoping to make our flush or pick up some straight draw on the turn.

But if we are going to bluff, we don't need to bet huge to get him to fold all his higher-card bluffs and thin value. Betting $400 ought to fold out everything that will fold to any size bet.

Before bluffing, think about what hand you'd be trying to rep, and ask if your actions to this point in the hand make sense for the hand you're trying to rep. My mental process is to start with the nuts, and work my way down the hands I could rep:

76s - I might open pre. I might occasionally call a 3B. But the only combos I have that call the flop are 76hh and maybe occasionally 76cc. Of those, I'm mostly folding on the turn, when I don't make my hand, and V bets over 1/2 pot.

6x, like 65, or A6 - I might open pre. I might occasionally call the 3B. But here again, the only 6x combos in my range are going to be 65hh and A6hh, and A6hh is mostly folding the turn. So, maybe we can credibly rep 65s.

99 - I would open pre. I would probably call the 3B. I might flat call the flop, but on the turn, I'll probably pounce with a raise.

55/22 - mostly folding pre, mostly folding flop.

44/33 - mostly folding pre or raising the flop or turn.

2P - it would really only be 54hh, and I'd likely raise the turn when we pick up the OESD.

The hands we have that want to donk-bet are just one combo of 65hh, one of 76s, one of A6s, and three of 99. The best of those hands want to bet huge, because they shouldn't get to the river very often, but the rest are mostly just block-betting or checking, when V can have a ton of AX, and will fold almost everything else if we even breathe on the pot.

As a general rule, if the best hands we'd bet for value want to go huge, we can size down with our bluffs. We're not trying to fold out AX. We're trying to fold out everything else.


Fold pre, and i suppose it depends on how bluffy you are. The vast majority of even good players dont bluff enough, and for those players I like jam raise on the turn here. A donk river jam is fine if your table image is solid (which is true for most players since most players dont bluff enough), its a ridiculously bluffy line, so you probably get called plenty but probably neutral ev or ev+ since Ahxh gets there so its at least sorta believable.

For what its worth this isnt the hand im personally going broke with here but im not sure that picking the exact perfect bluff is necessarily the goal so much as just bluffing the right amount.


by mkaracas k

He probably won't barel turn on a 3 bet pot with AK,not many people will there unless you have a specific read your opponent will fold 1010+...
I agree with the preflop fold.
AP though,i think i can rep many A high hands even though i wouldn't call with them preflop my opponent doesn't know this and this is the key.
I think with JJ-KK he won't call on the river sowith this in mind maybe it's not a bad bluff after all....

So you called on the flop with Ax? Only Ax that you can have is AK, AQ or AJ of hearts......and you probably would checkraise the NFD with some frequency on the flop. So your story will not add up. You check called the flop and turn, it looks a lot like JJ, TT or a flush draw with two high cards. But if your opponent is weak tight and you know that, by all means, bluff the river, and $400 is probably a good amount. But if V is a decent thinking player, I don't think V will fold KK or QQ in this spot enough for this to be profitable. You are never getting AA or Ax to fold.


by fightingillini k

So you called on the flop with Ax? Only Ax that you can have is AK, AQ or AJ of hearts......and you probably would checkraise the NFD with some frequency on the flop. So your story will not add up. You check called the flop and turn, it looks a lot like JJ, TT or a flush draw with two high cards. But if your opponent is weak tight and you know that, by all means, bluff the river, and $400 is probably a good amount. But if V is a decent thinking player, I don't think V will fold KK or QQ in

I think i can rep some A hands like A5s even though I'd never played them like that....
Also some suited connectors like 67s ....and with all those hands I'm not check raining flop since i don't think i have any advantage here.
So as played i don't expect him to fold any ace but 1010 - KK i think he should.


by mkaracas k

I think i can rep some A hands like A5s even though I'd never played them like that....
Also some suited connectors like 67s ....and with all those hands I'm not check raining flop since i don't think i have any advantage here.
So as played i don't expect him to fold any ace but 1010 - KK i think he should.

Why? From your discussion here you bluff too frequently vs GTO and you have no respect for at least this opponent(I can rep A5s even though I'd never play it like that). The most obvious draw missed and you bluff too often; the over pairs should call you.


villain has the hand you're repping more than you do

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