Prefop I have AKo

Prefop I have AKo

1-3 NLHE 8 handed

Good TAG opens to $10 in the LJ. I would expect him to have something like a GTO range. I'm next to act and make it $30 with AKo. SB and BB both call. Needless to say, they are both loose and poor players. Villain thinks for about 15 seconds before making it $120. I have about $280 behind, villain has me covered. SB looks ready to fold. BB isn't tipping his action. What is my play?

14 August 2024 at 10:11 PM
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18 Replies



If this player is actually good, I would fold. Folding is a small mistake at worst.


I'm all-in here I think. If there weren't any cold callers and V 4bet, I might fold though. With the cold callers, you have an overlay of dead money and a Villain that is more incentivized to 4bet hands like QQ, AK, and maybe even some worse hands.


by Dan GK k

I'm all-in here I think. If there weren't any cold callers and V 4bet, I might fold though. With the cold callers, you have an overlay of dead money and a Villain that is more incentivized to 4bet hands like QQ, AK, and maybe even some worse hands.

The problem is the question of how wide Villain has to be to justify trying to flip for the dead money as opposed to running into a monster. The positive EV you get from the dead money making the flip profitable is dwarfed by what you cost yourself running into AA (and KK although at least you are only a moderate dog in that case).


by CallMeVernon k

The problem is the question of how wide Villain has to be to justify trying to flip for the dead money as opposed to running into a monster. The positive EV you get from the dead money making the flip profitable is dwarfed by what you cost yourself running into AA (and KK although at least you are only a moderate dog in that case).

This is fair. We have to assume there is no fold equity I guess, so it's essentially like Villain has jammed for our remaining $280.

In that scenario, hero would have to call $280 to win a final pot of $680 (before rake), so would need 41% equity, where AKo only has 39% against a range of QQ+ AK. Close spot.

I credit anyone who finds a fold here in game, because I know I would not.


by LostWages k


Good TAG opens to $10 in the LJ. I would expect him to have something like a GTO range.

If he has a GTO range when opening pre, when he 4bets what's his range now then? TT thru AA, or KK thru AA? I don't see him doing this with AK due to his sizing (he 4bet to 120 with a raiser and 2 callers which is a fish size, so I would think he has a fish range of kings plus and probably just fold).

We're just flipping at best I would think. If he was a good player and he jammed in that spot I would probably snap call him there, but that's just me.


This may be somewhat minor but I’d say your preflop sizing was a little small and should be closer to the $40 range.

Regarding the action I don’t think this is ever like a fist pump get it in spot. I’m probably folding even against someone who’s capable. Like what could we possibly be up against that doesn’t have us beat?


flipping with $30 invested seems like a fold to me. its not like he's 4 betting AQ.

as an aside this is why you dont 4bet big with AA/KK/QQ. he should have made it $75-80.


Call


Is anyone behind us squeeze happy? Sometimes to small opens with no significant dead money I'll sometimes do a tricky flat here and hope someone attempts to come after all the dead money where I can then 4bet (although I'm more likely to do this in EP). If 3betting, I'd more go $50 to offer poor 8:1 IO at this stack size.

What's our image? If it is anything remotely tight / ABC, then I think this is just a fold facing a 4bet.

GcluelessNLnoobG


So people under 4-bet in general which is probably correct in a live setting. I don't think you have much fold equity as the pot is $210 and he'll be getting almost 2:1 on a call. You're behind a QQ+, AK range (loosest) and the range could be as tight as KK+. So shoving is out of the question. I don't like calling either because calling 33% of your stack just to play fit/fold vs a dominating range is just burning money. Looks like a clear fold.


EZ Fold. Without strong reads, you need better than AK against a 4-bet in a 1/3 game. Different in a 5/10 game or a tournament.


Your own image to the opener is important too here. It says something about his tendency to 4bet in this spot.


At 1/3, many players don't have a 4B range beyond AA/KK and AKs, and even fewer have a 4B-fold button, so I mostly over-fold to 4B's, unless I'm sitting pretty deep with my opponent, and I'm pretty sure he's capable of 4B'ing more than just those 3 hands.

In this spot, you can't call and then fold on a later street, so your choices are 1) fold now, 2) jam now, or 3) call, and jam the flop, no matter what it is, no matter what V does. It's hard to argue that any of those options is terrible.

When both blinds cold-call your 3B, V is incentivized to 4B wider here. If you're starting out $430 effective, his $120 sizing is right on the cusp of being pot-committed to calling off a jam. If you think he has a 4B-fold button, or if you think he's capable of 4B'ing QQ and some worse PP's or worse AX, I can see just getting it in.

If we don't think he's going to fold if we jam, then I think we should fold. We're crushed by AA/KK, and flipping with QQ and worse PP's, but the odds of him paying us off if we call and an A or K comes on the flop are pretty slim, so calling pre just to jam flop doesn't really make us any more money than jamming pre.


Folding AK seems absurd with the overlay.


by OmahaDonk k

Folding AK seems absurd with the overlay.

Too lazy to show my quick and dirty math (which has a fiddy/fiddy chance of being wrong), but if we assume 4bet is QQ+/AK, he calls our shove, others fold and aren't hogging up cards, and my $9+$1+$1+1 tax (fair?), I get an EV of about -$37.

So we're going to need some FE against the 4bet (really?), a wider 4bet range (too lazy to maths how much wider), or an extremely speculative call behind us to make this +EV.

GcluelessmathingnoobG


by gobbledygeek k

Too lazy to show my quick and dirty math (which has a fiddy/fiddy chance of being wrong), but if we assume 4bet is QQ+/AK, he calls our shove, others fold and aren't hogging up cards, and my $9+$1+$1+1 tax (fair?), I get an EV of about -$37.

So we're going to need some FE against the 4bet (really?), a wider 4bet range (too lazy to maths how much wider), or an extremely speculative call behind us to make this +EV.

GcluelessmathingnoobG

The difference between this situation and the other "What do with AK?!," thread is that in this case, V has further defined their range with the 4b, and now we have to react to it. As GG noted, that definition very likely (at these stakes) means a range we're not doing great against. There's two other people in the hand and V 4!d us anyway. (With a fishy size, as Playbig pointed out.)

Vs {QQ+, AK}, AKo is 37.9 and using Dan's math we need 41% or so. We need V to be bluffing with another 4 or so combos of trash for us to get it in here. (Adding Q5s to that range gets us to like 42.5) Or doing this with something like {TT+, AK, AQs}.

If Playbig's right, and fishy 4b-size = fishy 4b range (KK+) we're toast.


* pretty sure I did math part of it wrong (chopping EV branch always screws me up), but I still think that only improves us to an EV of -$24

GreallybadatmathingG


Fold. AKs would set us just over the equity we need to jam vs his likely tight, linear 4bet range.

He could probably 4bet fold AQo and A5s type hands, not having the equity to call off even putting over 1/3 of stacks in. But Unless you know he has 4bet folds, I would make an exploitative fold.

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