Overpair facing flop xr
Table Dynamics -
Tuesday afternoon, table just opened, 1/2 300 max. V is unknown to H, 50 year old white male, wearing business casual clothes.
OTTH -
Prob 7th or 8th hand since table opened. A few limps, H in Button raises to 12 with black Tens, V calls in the SB, two other limpers call - H and V both have about 300 to start
Flop (50ish)
9c8c2d
x,x,x H bets 35, V xr to 105, fold, fold, H elects to call - is this a snap fold, jam, etc?
Turn (260ish)
9c8c2dKh
V jams, H folds - IMO this is either a set, 98, a big combo draw, or even now Kxcc
After the hand I was thinking, what OPs are we continuing with on the flop - like it seems to be super nitty to fold QQ+ on the flop, but with the range I mentioned plus the player profile it seems to me that we are behind a lot of the time
10 Replies
I would raise more pre after 3 limps, to like 16.
As played, because he's unknown, playing 1/2, and since it's a multiway pot I would just fold to the c/r otf. Players don't usually do this with FD's or even 9x when it's a multiway pot, so I would think it's for value (at least two pair minimum).
Flop bet way too big. Turn prob fold, holding the Tc blocks a whole lot of his most logical bluffs while the Ts blocks a whole lot of his less logical bluffs.
The turn is less than a PSB, so the villain is expecting at 1/2 for you to call with a high pair after you called the raise. Probably hoping you have AK and feel you can't fold. Therefore I'd go with Mike Caro's old advice, "if a villain wants you to do something, disappoint them."
Raise bigger pre.
C-bet smaller on flop, like 1/4 pot.
Fold to the x/r.
He most likely flopped a set or 2P. Very unlikely he's playing a draw this way, in this spot.
I appreciate the feedback, but no one answered my last question. Are we folding all OPs to this action on flop and turn? If so are we playing way to nitty/exploitable?
In this spot yes, and as long as you're not folding big hands face up no one will know what you had. I've folded AK plenty of time pre or aces post flop and never felt nitty because it was the smart thing to do vs the villains range.
I appreciate the feedback, but no one answered my last question. Are we folding all OPs to this action on flop and turn? If so are we playing way to nitty/exploitable?
Well you have the worst op because it's not only the lowest but you block the draws to str8 and flush. Red aces maybe you bet and then continue for example. AcAx I'd check flop. Your hand id check flop too. It's a bit like the other thread with QQ.
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I appreciate the feedback, but no one answered my last question. Are we folding all OPs to this action on flop and turn? If so are we playing way to nitty/exploitable?
It depends. You have no reads on this guy, so we don't know if he flat calls out of the SB with JJ or TT. If we knew that, we can continue with QQ+. In this hand, it's the SB putting in the x/r, but what if it was one of the other opponents? What hands would make the most sense to continue with in that scenario?
It also depends on your bet size, and V's x/r size, versus the stack depth. Here, you bet 70% pot into three opponents, and V went straight 3x with his raise, leaving $183 back. It looks like he's setting up to jam turn. When you bet 70% pot into three opponents and get x/r'd by someone who'll have less than a PSB left behind if you call, he's probably not bluffing very often.
What if you bet 20% pot, and he raised 3x? We can probably continue more in that scenario, where V could have more bluffs or worse value, and we can continue across more turns.
I think your question is probably moot, if our opponents are only check-raising with 2P or a set. TT and AA are basically the same vs 2P or a set. I suppose maybe TT is better on this 98-high board, because we have some back door straight potential. Then again, we're blocking the Tx combos V might have as a bluff (though, again, I doubt he's bluffing here).
Maybe AcAx is better with two clubs on board. Or maybe not, on the flop, when we want our opponent to be bluffing with the NFD.
Maybe as the stacks get deeper, we start calling off with JJ and QQ, hands that can also go runner-runner to make a straight, though not as easily as with TT.
Maybe if the turn was a J or 7, or another club, we could continue, having picked up additional equity with a straight or flush draw. But I don't really see how folding flop is making us exploitable, much less folding turn. I think the turn is mostly a blank, unless we think he's x/r'ing K9 on the flop.
Obviously we'd continue with KK on the turn, but we shouldn't be getting to the turn this way.
I really doubt he shows up with KXcc here at much of a frequency. His range probably looks like hands that are fine going multiway and flopped something, 98/76/T7/JT/A2cc. Occasionally sets.
We butchered this hand on the flop, 4 ways this is a checkback. Facing a check raise we're making a decision right then whether we're going to play for stacks in this hand, the king doesn't really change much. Facing the x/r I'm fine with dumping TT right there since we block a good chunk of his bluff range, though it still has the best equity among overpairs against his range of hands that are continuing to bluff so if our read on the flop is that he's on a bluff I'd be fine with call/call.
I appreciate the feedback, but no one answered my last question. Are we folding all OPs to this action on flop and turn? If so are we playing way to nitty/exploitable?
In this spot yes, and as long as you're not folding big hands face up no one will know what you had. I've folded AK plenty of time pre or aces post flop and never felt nitty because it was the smart thing to do vs the villains range.
The answer is no. You can't treat all overpairs like TcTs on a board like that.