QQ in the SB 1-3
Hero QQ in the small blind.
Effective stack is $400
Stratled pot to $6, 2 callers, button raises to 25.
Hero raises to 100, all fold to button who tank calls.
Button is a fairly regular player, studies the game, watched poker vlogs.
I am thinking that AK makes up the majority of their range when they apprehensively call.
Flop: Ks 7d 2c.
Hero: ?
I feel multiple lines can be taken here, given that I am out of position any kind of bet could be setting money on fire, if the button has AK I’m not sure any bet including a jam on the flop would get them to fold AK but maybe if I did they might put me on AA or KK and make the fold but then if I have AA or KK on such a dry board why I am jamming all in going for max fold equity?
i dont see how you can c/f when people stab so often in these games when checked to. i honestly dont know if checking or 1/4 pot betting is better, but c/f to a 1/2 pot size bet seems terrible.
Yeah I wouldn't fold yet, although if the bet size was closer to pot then it would probably be a fold. I agree with this that both her small and check-call are both viable flop options. If you call the half pot bet then it'll often go check-check on turn and then you can value bet smallish on river (accepting that you will occasionally value own yourself)
No, might be an intuitive thought but it isn’t correct.
You can ask google or you can manually write down all the possibilities on a piece of paper and count them when you are done.
Sure:
AdKd, AdKc, AdKs, AdKh
AhKd, AhKc, AhKs, AhKh
AcKd, AcKc, AcKs, AcKh
AsKd, AsKc, AsKs, AsKh
Sure looks like 16 to me.
Also, Google:
16
What about A-K combos? If we give the villain all of the ace-king combos, then she can make one by taking any of the four aces and crossing them with any of the four kings. 4 x 4 = 16 and that's the number of combos.
I think you are getting confused with top pair combos, in which case one of the cards is missing because it is on the flop. For example, if the flop is As8h2d, then there are 12 combos of AK available, because that last row can't be in V's hand with As already being on the flop.
I just figure it out, based on the fact you went down by 3, not 4, above. At some point you glommed on to the fact that there are 12 off-suit combos of any 2 non-matching cards (such as AK), and forgot or didn't realize that's not considering the 4 suited combos.
Yeah I wouldn't fold yet, although if the bet size was closer to pot then it would probably be a fold. I agree with this that both her small and check-call are both viable flop options. If you call the half pot bet then it'll often go check-check on turn and then you can value bet smallish on river (accepting that you will occasionally value own yourself)
Not that there isn't a bunch of confusion already in the thread, but weren't effective stacks 400 to start the hand? If so, we've put in 100 pf, got called, pot is now 218 - rake (straddle and 2 limps), and we're debating whether or not to call an additional 100 on the flop? Won't we have less than a half-pot bet remaining if we do? (~415 with 200 back) That doesn't seem like a great place to be. (Unless we really did have KK.)
Are we hoping that it'll get checked to showdown? If that happens, great, but we're folding a non Q turn or river if V bets again, after we've put half our stack in? Agreed, that b/f flop is better than c/call a ~ 1/2 pot bet this shallow.
What reads do we have on V? The pf sizing, the call of H's 3!, this flop sizing: none of it is screaming "crusher" to me. If V isn't good, it makes it more likely in my mind that V would call H's 3! pf AK/KQ for 1/4 stack. Moreover, I think we can discount a lot of PPs up to...TT(?) here. Although, if they're that bad...
Just surprised to read so many of you advocating calling this flop bet.
Jam or fold.
Pre flop was fine. Checking flop from OOP is fine. Alternatively, we might c-bet 1/4 pot if V is aggro and will stab big when we check, and fold to a raise.
As played, our choices when V bets 1/2 pot suck. We either turn our hand into a bluff and jam, or we fold. Calling the $100 and leaving ourselves $200 behind, hoping to spike a Q or that V checks back turn is just torching money.
