Bottom set facing a turn check-raise
5/5
~$350 effective
UTG - loose passive rec
UTG limps, Hero(MP) calls with 3♦3♣
Flop($20) A♥ 8♣ 3♠
x x x Hero bets $8, UTG calls
Turn($36) K♠
Hero bets $36, UTG raises to $80, Hero calls
River($196) A♣
UTG checks, Hero bets $140, UTG jams for ~$260
I’m not happy with my bet sizing. Any suggestions?
That's an attempt to simplify the process and learn step by step.
Quite the opposite of bots: with the sparse read given, all we have to go on is the tendency of flawed live players we think are similar to the description.
If you said "kinda clueless rec" then yeah they can think a big Ace and oooh now its trips, that's the nuts...but against typical "loose passive" they don't pull this stuff without two pair unless there's some major tilt happening. And that should be in the read if it's happening.
Uhm... okay, the OP's read was light on detail, maybe, but still...V limped UTG. Even a loose passive rec-fish isn't showing up with AK very often.
If V flopped 2P with A8, or a set with 88, we'd probably hear from him on the flop. There are no combos of A3s possible, and only 2 combos of A3o possible.
V probably isn't showing up with AA or KK when he limps from UTG pre, unless he was planning to limp-raise, which isn't a big part of the loose passive rec-fish game.
Don't know why we'd assume V has 2P on the turn. Why does he check raise? Maybe because there are two spades on board now, and he's trying to protect his hand. Maybe he's trying to slow hero down with something that's supposed to be a block bet. It doesn't make a lot of sense for him to check raise rather than donk bet, but I'm not trying to ascribe great play to low stakes rec-fish.
If his hand was really strong, we'd probably expect him to raise bigger. Seems like he's trying to give himself a good price to raise-fold if we 3B over his x/r, which just looks like some weakish AX to me.
Is V going to check the river if he's boated up? Instead of just betting his hand for value? Does that sound like loose passive rec-fish play? It doesn't to me. I'd expect most LP rec-fish holding a monster to just bet out, rather than risk hero checking back.
Could V show up with a boat? Of course he could. Weird stuff happens. But c'mon, we gotta do some basic hand reading. And we're never folding our boat, when V might just be entitlement tilt spazzing, or over-playing trips. If we're beat, we're beat. Folding here is so -EV long term that we shouldn't even think about it unless V is seriously nitty.
