1-3 Population tendencies with paired boards?
I have been having an issue where lately it seems like if I have tptk on the flop and bet, I get called only for the board to pair.
I have heard the pros talk about how this is a good thing since now you have two pairs yourself etc but my experience lately tends to be if they are putting money in on a paired board they seem to have trips or better.
Obviously it would be exploitable if you fold every time the board pairs and they put in money in.
Do you think it would be profitable to over fold to paired boards when they start to bet?
6 Replies
Unfortunately, the answer is "it depends."
This is too broad of a question to come up with reliable heuristics.
Yeah, AF is right here. I will say that I find the population to underbluff, but also underfold on paired boards. So (very generally) we want to be very cautious if they are betting, especially if they called flop and turn comes pairing one of the top two cards, and we want to ramp down bluffs and ramp up value on paired boards, especially OTF. But that is extremely general advice that depends hugely on many other factors.
I have been having an issue where lately it seems like if I have tptk on the flop and bet, I get called only for the board to pair.
I have heard the pros talk about how this is a good thing since now you have two pairs yourself etc but my experience lately tends to be if they are putting money in on a paired board they seem to have trips or better.
Obviously it would be exploitable if you fold every time the board pairs and they put in money in.
Do you think it would be profitable to over fold to p
Keep in mind the pros are likely playing much different stakes than you with people who play differently and not necessarily better. If you're finding the population where you live is playing a certain way, adjust to it.
My population typically has a high hand promotion of $300-$1000 every half hour. So paired boards typically freeze all betting.
In general, any time you are the pfr, bet the flop and the average passive LLSNL villain starts shoveling money on the turn, your hand is no good unless you have a set or better. Obviously, reads are critical to make a final decision.
If you do an internet search for how to play paired boards, there's a decent amount of content available, but a lot of it is about how to play paired flops.
I feel like it's a little easier to play in situations where the board pairs on the turn, depending on positions and action to that point, but it requires some ability to hand-read.
Like, I'm less worried about the turn being a 2 on a flop of J72 than the turn being a 7, if we have AJ. I might worry if my opponent starts shoveling money in, but I'm not worried if he check-calls.
If an opponent donks into us when the middle card pairs on the turn, how I react depends on my read. It's often the case that they turned trips and want to make sure the turn doesn't get checked through if the board is draw-heavy. But some good opponents are capable of donking as a bluff in that spot, expecting us to over-fold our TP, over-pairs, and draws.
It's bizarre when we have TPTK, we turn trips, and they donk into us. I'd be leery of slow-played sets that just boated up.
