QTs bluffing in a 3bet pot

That's not what we're doing. We're choosing a bet size that targets a specific part of V's range to take a specific action.

Say we had AJ, and we're putting V on AK. Is he going to call off a pot sized bet on turn and river? Do we ever want to size down on the river, to get called by worse Jx, or 88-TT? If we go small enough, we can get called by AK.

If we can accomplish the same goals with a smaller bluff, taking a larger size is just punting.

You aren’t really telling a compelling story once you check this flop on this runout. He still may fold his non pairs though

If he has AK hes just gonna probably fold to whatever bet. But I think he has 88-TT.

Basically, i think the exploit here is that I know the range he got here with, and its not a balanced range, its a range I can exploit. I dont really know whether he would fold or call with 88-TT vs pot/pot. I think the population as a whole would do some of each, at least against a super aggressive opponent with an image like mine, so i can just play something that is at least in the direction of a more unexploitable strategy of doing it with Jx and bluffs (although id guess V would make more calling than folding against my range because id probably be overbluffing). The goal isnt really to make my opponent indifferent, but to make myself indifferent to my opponent’s decision.

Not trying to hijack the thread, nor get into a big argument with you, trying to "prove" you wrong. I don't think we're that far apart in how we view this.

Street-by-street:

PRE - Unknown V 3B's from the BB - Possibly 88-TT, sure, but 88-TT could be flat calls, whereas AK is usually going to be an auto-3B.

FLOP - V checks a fairly wet and dynamic board - I'd think AK would check this board a fair bit, whereas 88-TT is likely to c-bet for value and protection.

TURN - After hero checks back flop, V checks again, on a brick - Hard to think V has 88-TT now, when those hands have to think they're best.

If hero did have Jx, even AJ, we wouldn't want to bet too big, and fold out 88-TT or 7x, nor can we be 100% certain that V isn't sand-bagging an over-pair, hoping to induce us to bet. If we bet big and get x/r'd, it's pretty gross.

If we bet big and get called, V is likely to have us beat (unless he's just not ready to let go of 2nd pair / doesn't believe the story we're telling), or he's likely drawing to the nuts. A small bet on the turn when V checked to us twice is probably more appropriate than a big bet, for value or as a bluff, because we're going to have to size up on the river.

Hero bets >1/2 pot, and V calls. Maybe a non-believing 88-TT hangs on, but AK, especially AKcc, is definitely not folding yet. V probably isn't folding any AXcc, and almost certainly is never folding A7cc, A5cc, or A4cc.

RIVER - BB checks again.

At this point, maybe V has 88-TT, but I think it's more likely he's got some AXcc, or AK/AQ, and will fold to ANY size bet. If V called turn with 88-TT, he apparently wasn't convinced we have Jx when we bet >1/2 pot. We don't need to bet huge to fold out AK. We only need to bet huge to fold out 88-TT.

If we had bet smaller on turn, making it easier for 88-TT to call turn, we'd need to put in a big bet on the river, to better sell the Jx story. We can still put in a big bet on the river now, but we didn't need to bloat the pot on the turn. We could get the same hands to fold betting smaller on turn and big on river.

If we bet huge on turn and huge on river, it's just a punt if we get snapped off.

If we actually had AJ, we could size down on the river, to get called by 88-TT, or hero'd by A7 or A4.

The problem with the big turn bet is that it's not really all that credible. We trying to tell the story that we checked back the flop with top pair, but then we blast off when V checks to us again on the turn, showing a ton of weakness? I think I'd be curious enough to call off with 88-TT, when all the most obvious draws brick out.

The main issue I see in this hand is that the opponent should’ve range-bet the flop. Since he checked OTF, it already throws up a red flag, and he’s probably capped. After he checks the turn, he’s definitely capped.
So no matter how silly and awkward I might look, I’m still attacking a really weak range overall.

And as was correctly pointed out, if I’m calling preflop, I’m basically obligated to turn this hand into a bluff; otherwise, I’m making a huge fundamental mistake. The real question is, do we start firing from the flop, or do we play it the way I did in this hand? Considering the stacks are shallow.

I don't mind V checking range from OOP on the flop. I don't think it caps him nearly as much as checking the turn does.

We could have started a bluff on the flop, and barreled if we picked up equity. But checking back to see what he does on the turn is fine.

We can start our bluff on the turn, but we should know we're going to have to bet again on the river, so we don't need to make our turn bet so big, especially when we're not starting out very deep. I might have bet $50-$60 on the turn, and then over-bet pot on the river.

Alternatively, if we think he's never checking twice with thick value, and never calling a big turn bet with 2nd pair or worse, we could over-bet the turn, to take the pot down there, but we need to give up on the river if he calls. It's possible we can get it done with a 2/3 pot bet on the turn, but probably a little less likely he'll fold his PP's or draws.

The half pot bet sizing on the turn is just too in between, IMO.