Line check down
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
V - asian guy. weakest 2/5 player at our casino. Good by 1/3 standards. Tries to play TAG but way too loose passive. Covers. BB.
Folds to fish in CO who opens 15, H calls BTN off 500$ eff stack with 8♣ 8♦, V to 80 from BB, fish folds, H calls (?)
Flop 170 (420 back) - 9-9-3-3-J rainbow runout checks all the way down...
6 Replies
I think the squeeze is too big to call. Post check down is good. Maybe can bet small river.
You can make an argument for 3bing the CO depending on his tendencies - calling V's raise to 80 is not good. You have terrible equity vs his perceived range - granted when you flop a set you most likely will get paid but that doesn't happen often enough.
Prefer to 3B the fish pre, to get HU and IP.
Think we should fold when BB 3B's with this large sizing.
Think I might bet turn after he checks to us twice. Seems like he's got a lot of un -paired over-cards or lower PP's that we can get value from. Doubt he's folding 55-77 or AK/KQ.
River check back is fine, I guess. Doubtful he'll call a bet with worse if he's good, though I wonder if he'll sometimes hero-call from OOP. This seems like a spot where a lot of people are going to stab at it from IP on the river. I've made hero calls from OOP in spots like this, with Ax, when I think V is capable of pouncing on perceived weakness.
I'm fine with the initial flat.
I fold to the massive 3bet for a huge 16% of stacks offering horrendous IO of ~8:1 (horrible setmining odds even in position where we'll hate most flops), especially versus a guy playing "way too loose passive".
I don't mind a flop check back but when checked to twice I'd be putting in a small turn bet to protect against overcards. As played, when checked to three times I'm putting in a small river bet targeting A high.
GcluelessNLnoobG
On the river, if you had a hand with zero showdown value (QTs for example), would you look at this as a good spot to make a small bluff for half pot? Probably not, since it looks like Villain has Ace high, and people don’t like to fold Ace high on double paired boards to one small bet.
The logical extension of that hypothetical is that if you have a hand that can beat Ace high, you have a good spot to make a small value bet.
Preflop I would fold getting !6-1 IO if I thought there was a decent chance I was behind the CO opening range or if I thought he could squeeze.
AP: I think we have to bet the turn here with a vulnerable hand. There is no Broadway river we want to see.
AP River: prefer b/f to a x behind here.
