Check-raise bluff against a whale... now what?
I have been going back and forth on posting this hand, because I know I butchered it in a few different ways, but it has been a couple weeks and I am on a mini-upswing, so it's easier to look back on and dissect...
$1/$2 game at Mohegan Sun on a Saturday afternoon.
Main Villain in this hand is probably known to other New England poker heads, but this was my first time playing with him. Based on his table talk, he is a former $20/$40 Limit Hold ‘Em reg at Foxwoods from the LHE glory days and has played in a bunch of tournaments all around the country. He is here with his wife who is also an old school reg. Despite the wealth of poker experience, he is essentially a whale at this NLHE table, playing ATC and chasing every draw whether or not he is getting the correct price. In one notable hand, he donked flop huge, multiway, with 74ss on Q98ss then called off when two other players jammed (including the tightest player at the table) and ended up turning a flush to stack Q9 and JT. His stack size has been swinging wildly, but after losing several big pots since the 74ss hand, he is the effective stack here with around $250.
My only relevant HH with him - I iso button with J9s over two limps (the bottom of my iso range) and V cold-calls BB. Others fold so HU to KJ6r. X to me, I cbet $15 and he calls. I don’t always cbet second pair no kicker here, but I reasoned that I was ahead of this guy a LOT. Turn 5ss goes xx. River offsuit 3 he bets $40, I call expecting to see a lot of spew, and he proudly shows J3ss for a rivered two pair. Without prompting he says, “Spades kept me in it! I would have folded without the spades.”
OTTH
QTo (no diamond) - Folds to me in the HJ and I open $10, again at the bottom of my range. V calls CO and a nit calls button. Three ways OOP to the flop.
Flop is J 9 6r ($32 before rake) - I elect to X, thinking about a potential check-raise against V who is incredibly stabby. V bets $15, button calls, and I XR $55. V audibly groans, then says, “$40 more?” and calls pretty quickly. The button folds. Before the turn is dealt, V says, “you probably have me crushed.”
Turn is J 9 6 7dd ($157 before rake)
Hero? Not a good turn card for me, as villain may have all combos of T8 and possibly some suited combos of 85 that float with BDFD. He also makes a ton of two pair. V has around $170 back. It feels like all options (XF, XC a reasonable bet, bet small, or jam) are within reason.
Also curious about feedback on other streets, e.g. general strategy tips against this player-type, whether people view pre-flop as a fold at an extremely passive table, etc. In hindsight, the biggest mistake might be the titular attempt at bluffing a man that will never fold...
16 Replies
Now I don't bluff into whales. It's not to say that you can't get the bluff through, it's just that there are better candidates out there.
By my definition of whales, they call too wide, they don't understand hand strength well, they don't understand what board is underbluffed, they don't know what action line means what. A lot of the time when they 'know' they are beat they still call, because folding is not what they are in the casino for.
I have lessons learned bluffing them. I think the existence of whales better contributes to your value pot, not the bluffing ones.
Now I don't bluff into whales. It's not to say that you can't get the bluff through, it's just that there are better candidates out there.
By my definition of whales, they call too wide, they don't understand hand strength well, they don't understand what board is underbluffed, they don't know what action line means what. A lot of the time when they 'know' they are beat they still call, because folding is not what they are in the casino for.
I have lessons learned bluffing them. I think the existe
I strongly agree with your assessment, and looking back at this hand, I think choosing to try and bluff this player is a pretty significant mistake.
With that being said, my read at the time was that the whale would stab extremely wide, often with zero or no equity, and would be forced to fold a lot. I obviously wasn't shocked when he called flop, and I wasn't afraid to double-barrel a lot of turns with the idea that he would still be extremely weak (especially after the table talk, which I took to be really honest) but the turn 7 seems pretty grim...
FWIW the button in this hand is dead money in my opinion. Extremely nitty player who will always overfold to check-raise. If he had something strong, he would probably raise-GII on flop vs. the whale's initial stab.
I would fold preflop.
Sorry, should have clarified. I don't think V is ever folding his pairs or higher-equity draws, but I do think he bet-calls flop with hands like K8s and K5s (not to mention hands I am ahead of, like QXs and TXs) that just can't call down across most runouts.
Check and hope for a check behind. Sounds like these stakes are meaningless and he will call off a jam light. Doesn't seem like you should bluff flop either. I would rather check call flop or bet small on the flop. You might multi barrel just because if you hit you can stack someone and turn barrel can get some folds too. Maybe even firing the 3rd barrel with a bluff if you see him call to river just to fold a lot. Not if he stations river though.
You're supposed to tighten up your RFI range vs whales when OOP.
I'd limp preflop as a default, as played don't xr flop. As played just X turn and hope he checks back and then we can bluff some rivers like Ax or maybe we hit our hand/a pair.
You're supposed to tighten up your RFI range vs whales when OOP.
I'd limp preflop as a default, as played don't xr flop. As played just X turn and hope he checks back and then we can bluff some rivers like Ax or maybe we hit our hand/a pair.
Thanks, I think this is really good advice. I wanted to play pots with this guy, but clearly playing a bloated pot OOP is not very good with this hand, especially when other people are always going to come in behind once he calls.
I generally never open-limp from middle or late positions (sometimes from early positions at the right tables) so this is the first time I am considering it here, but it feels like the right idea.
Thanks, I think this is really good advice. I wanted to play pots with this guy, but clearly playing a bloated pot OOP is not very good with this hand, especially when other people are always going to come in behind once he calls.
I generally never open-limp from middle or late positions (sometimes from early positions at the right tables) so this is the first time I am considering it here, but it feels like the right idea.
Yeah limping is good when you are against weaker competition.
Poker is too complicated to have hard and fast rules like never limp or always raise first in. Your strategy depends upon your opponents, always.
It's pretty interesting. So, if I’m playing at a table where nearly 100% of the time after I raise, it turns into a 2-3-4 way pot, should I adjust my strategy? For example, normally I open ATo+, Axs+, 22+, QJo, and so on. Should I start splitting my range between limp and raise? Like raising very strong hands AQ+, KQ+, 99+ and limping hands like ATo, QJo, JTs, and 22-88?
And what should I do if players constantly raise when I limp? How do I adapt in that case?
If you're going to open QTo, this seems like a good flop to c-bet. I understand checking to let V stab, but I'd rather let him stab when we have thick value. Here I'd rather keep control of the betting, and c-bet 1/3 pot, like $10-$12.
As played, when V stabs 1/2 pot and gets called, check raising with our hand, from OOP and multi-way is pretty spewy. When V gives the groan and speech, then calls, beware. He's not upset to be putting more money in. I'd be shutting it down on the turn if we don't improve.
When OOP against a whale, I try to remember to tighten up and raise bigger pre, then play a defensive / trappy strat post. I want to decrease the SPR going to the flop, and let him blast off post with his wider / weaker range.
What docvail wrote. I'd rather c-bet than check/raise. Often, after the check/raise, I would lead the turn, but his speech seems so strong I don't think it's worth it.
If you're going to open QTo, this seems like a good flop to c-bet. I understand checking to let V stab, but I'd rather let him stab when we have thick value. Here I'd rather keep control of the betting, and c-bet 1/3 pot, like $10-$12.
As played, when V stabs 1/2 pot and gets called, check raising with our hand, from OOP and multi-way is pretty spewy. When V gives the groan and speech, then calls, beware. He's not upset to be putting more money in. I'd be shutting it down on the turn if we don't
The pre- and post-flop strategy advice here is well-taken. Thanks. I very much agree that my play in this hand bordered on spew.
I will say, I am not a live read expert, but I try to be as observant as possible at the table and am hyper aware of those corny reverse tells. This wasn't that. The groan struck me as being involuntary, but he basically snap called after getting a count. The table talk happened after btn had folded and before the turn was dealt, as opposed to before V made his own call.
My initial post here is a couple of days old, so posting the result behind the spoiler tag:
The pre- and post-flop strategy advice here is well-taken. Thanks. I very much agree that my play in this hand bordered on spew.
I will say, I am not a live read expert, but I try to be as observant as possible at the table and am hyper aware of those corny reverse tells. This wasn't that. The groan struck me as being involuntary, but he basically snap called after getting a count. The table talk happened after btn had folded and before the turn was dealt, as opposed to before V made his own cal
The groan doesn't need to be fake to be a tell. When looked at in conjunction with his bet and your raise, it rules out him bluffing with total air, and strengthens his range to having some piece of the board, no matter how small a piece.
When he says we probably have him crushed, that may or may not be a fake tell, but generally, I would say it's an honest statement following a call, and a dishonest statement following a bet or raise. So if you raise, he calls, and he says that, he's probably being honest. If you bet, he raised, and he says that, he's probably being dishonest.
It can be a challenge to put the pieces together in real time. If we're doing it well, we should think he's not bluffing with air, but probably doesn't have a great hand either. I probably wouldn't put him on 85, but I would put T8, 97, and 76 into his range, and wouldn't necessarily rule out something suspiciously strong, like KJ, that isn't going to fold to further aggression.
When he groan-calls-speeches the flop, and then jams turn on a card that brings in some draws and 2P combos, it's rarely a bluff, so good fold. But, like I said in my earlier post, I'm not betting turn unimproved, when he calls our flop raise.
It's pretty interesting. So, if I’m playing at a table where nearly 100% of the time after I raise, it turns into a 2-3-4 way pot, should I adjust my strategy? For example, normally I open ATo+, Axs+, 22+, QJo, and so on. Should I start splitting my range between limp and raise? Like raising very strong hands AQ+, KQ+, 99+ and limping hands like ATo, QJo, JTs, and 22-88?
And what should I do if players constantly raise when I limp? How do I adapt in that case?
Yes.
You should also have different raise sizings based on your exact hand.
Not splitting your range implies balance and you never balance your range vs fish.
To the last question you start limp-RR wider for value.
Raising flop is fine. Guys like this sometimes their table talk means something and sometimes they are good enough at balancing, but once he starts talking, if hes a reg i wanna see that hand and im checking it down to see what he has.