Trips facing an awkward river

well its a spot that doesn't mostly get bluffed a ton but depends who u play with

looks like he is milking with set

never fold trips any street but fold overpairs on turn is like the standard play

90% of the time your hand isn't good on the flop.
Conclusion: Fold

People do not raise their draws often but they always raise their sets (2Pair) on draw heavy boards.

And I hope YOU DO NOT BLUFF AK, AQ, AJ on a flop like this into 3 opponents.

Any reads on on the button?

I would fold otf. We're hardly ever good there.

And yes, if he flopped a set in position, of course he'd wanna raise with a FD otf.

I don't even like calling the turn when he overbets it, but that's just me.

The raise otf could be done with a few different hands: TPs, trips, strong FDs and occasional combo-draws . This assuming all overpairs would 3bet preflop.
A case could be made for folding right here to the raise, but I cannot really blame you for calling without specific reads on V.

Then, what can he have which overbets this turn? I would discount almost completely draws, with which he should slow down, and to some extent also boats, which he may want to slow play.
So, we are left with trips, which would bet to extract value from over pairs and lower trips, as well as to deny equity to draws.
I am most probably not good enough to fold turn after we hit trips, but not really happy to call either.

OTR, I'd expect boats to bet bigger, but who knows. On the other hand, a good V may definitely go for "thin" value with AT, possibly also KT. Anyway, even a weird played FD now got there, so we do not beat anything, besides an overplayed T9, and chopping with an equally overplayed JT.
Looks like it's time to fold.

Folding to the flop raise seems absurd, unless the opponent is a nit.

Flop: V gets direct odds to make his flushes, so I cannot see why he would raise non-NFD here. He has more sets than anything else, but I think he can have some JJ or even 99/88/77 that would rather raise/fold than risk flush or A/K turn. His semi-bluffs are probably just Ah4h, Ah5h and maybe Ah3h but I think he still checks a lot of these.

Turn: he continues polar sizing and the T makes his Tx less likely. I don't think his boats need protection. I still feel his polar sizing indicates mid-pairs that don't want to see the river and some Ahxh. Maybe V thinks he can fold out our AK/AQ with NFD blocker and AA blocker.

River: we get 3-1. He has 3 JJ, 6 99, 6 88 - so 15 combos we beat. He has 3 logical Flushes and 9 boats - 3 (77) and 3 (22) and 3 (33). I still think we can call but it's hardly a fist-pump. I would almost rather call a big river bet than a value bet here.

You may be right, but imo it takes a very special V to just flat pre with 88, 99, JJ otb, and then play them hyper aggressively postflop.

Fold flop. Betting for a small size is correct because we deny equity to villain's overcards, but we are still hoping for a fold. River is an easy fold ainec

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Just fold the flop - keep in mind when villain raises you he has the blinds behind him so his range is stronger than say HU. As played you get to the river with either a flush or trips+ yet here he is betting - he would have to be a maniac to fire off with this line as you'll usually be very strong on the river and his natural bluffs (FD) got there.

I think check flop is solver approved. You can't rep the nuts without h in hand and you don't even have a range advantage vs SB flatting range. I think that was the first mistake so it's hard to evaluate the future streets decision tree after that.

Villain is in the BTN instead of SB.

I am terrible at solver, but I wonder on a 10 2 3 board, as the MP opener I am way more likely to have all the overpairs and top set, whereas the BTN can only realistically have set of 2s or 3s? (or 23s). And as played, am I supposed to just check-call oop with top pair? Is it optimal to check your whole range here with anything less than A10/JJ+ ?

What is your image? Your bet size I believe can cap you. An aggressive villain can exploit your sizing. If you had an over pair you would protect more. It’s hard for you to weather 3 barrens and there are a lot of cards that hurt you. He’s probably putting you on an over pair. He thinks he can rep the 10 on turn. But his bet size on turn makes no sense. Then the flush gets there but since you called the turn he downsized. Also his betting pace is important to observe. He’s got to think about the turn card. And if he has a boat on the turn then he should really bomb the river. I think you have to call the river. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pure bluff no pair.

Check flop if villain is skilled.

PRE - don't know what the standard raise size is, but this looks okay to me.

FLOP - 1/3 pot c-bet seems ok. Wouldn't think a check is bad if V is stabby when action checks to him, or if the blinds are trappy or aggro enough to x/r with their high equity draws.

Unlikely anyone has a big piece of the board, unless they have a flush or wheel draw, or a combo draw. Those hands aren't folding to a single bet. Doubtful very many PP's from 44-99 are folding to a single bet either. Maybe the blinds show up with some sets or 2P and go for a x/r.

V's 4x raise size seems more likely to be value than a bluff, if only because so many low stakes players will use a slightly smaller size with their bluffs here. I'd think his bluffs would be higher equity, like A5hh/A4hh or 54hh.

Can't fold yet, but not liking this spot so far...

TURN - V's over-bet looks more like a boat than a bluff when we could have turned trips.

V might have a better Tx here. We're drawing super thin if we're behind. Maybe V gives up and checks back river on a brick, so I guess we can call again, but this is getting pretty uncomfortable.

RIVER - ugh. Almost all his bluffs got there.

Really doubtful he's betting worse for value, unless he's got T9cc. But is he really raising that hand on the flop? Seems unlikely. His only missed draws are 54 no hearts, like 54cc, and some A5cc/A4cc. He'd have to be a special V to raise flop with those hands, and barrel off.

Unless we know V is super capable of starting his bluff on the flop with some of those missed draw combos, and barreling off with them, this seems like a sigh-fold. Maybe we can find a call if we know he doesn't 3B pre with JJ, but would raise a "safe" flop, but I think JJ checks back river here a lot.

Probably just a fold, all the time, absent a really good reason to deviate.