A tale of two dubious turn jams...
A couple of interesting hands from my last 1/3 session, in which I made two fairly large jams on the turn, not entirely sure in either case if I was jamming for value or as a bluff. Curious to see what peeps here think of these...
1/3, 9-handed, $500 max BI, Parx Philly, Saturday night.
Table dynamics - table is mostly regs. Not a great game.
Reads - Both of the main V's in these hands are competent / capable regs, younger (late 20's / early 30's) WG's. Hero is a LAG-ish early 50's WG.
H1 -
A couple limps from EP/MP. A bad loose-passive / stationy reg on the BTN limps off of a ~$900 stack. H in SB (~$425) limps with 6s3s (I know this is terrible). V in BB (~$400) raises to $15. Folds to BTN who calls. Hero calls (I know, terrible).
FLOP (~$45 after rake) Ah5d4d.
H x. BB $15. BTN $30. H calls. BB 3B! to $75. BTN folds. Hero tank-calls.
Turn ($225) Ah5d4d 2d.
H thinks for a few seconds, then jams for ~360.
H2 -
The BB from the hand above left right after that hand. I slid over to take his seat, and the V in this hand took my seat when he joined the table, a couple orbits ago.
Action folds to the same bad reg who limps on the BTN. V in SB raises to $20 off of ~$425. Hero in BB 3B to $60 off $500 with AsQs. BTN folds. SB calls and we're HU and IP to the flop...
FLOP (~$120 after rake) Th6c4d.
V in SB x. Hero $40. V x/r's to $100. Hero tank-calls.
Turn Th6c4d 7h.
V in SB x. Hero bets $300, enough to put V all-in for less.
Somewhat expecting to get flamed for these, but if it maters, my reasoning...
H1 - V's open to $15 over four limps looks weak, likely a speculative hand.
The BTN is limp-calling with ATC here. Even though I'm OOP with a craptastic hand, it's suited, somewhat connected, the BTN has $900, he's been making a lot of loose river calls, and V in the BB has been talking about running bad lately, making me think he might give up post flop if he just whiffs, so I decided to gamble pre.
V's 1/3 pot c-bet-raise into 2 opponents on a wet board looks like Ax, or 2P at best. I don't think he's always raising 55/44 pre in this set-up. I don't think he's 3B'ing AdXd. And I kind of think he wouldn't 3B his combo draws in this spot.
He's only starting out $400 deep, so it shouldn't be hard to get the money in if he's got a hand that wants to play for stacks. So his bet-raise just looks like A5 (or maybe 55/44/54) trying to protect against the obvious flush draw.
Even though the turn 2d completes that flush draw, I don't think he was on a draw, and I made the nut straight. My hand wants to get value, and I think it could maybe use some protection. Worst case is the river is another diamond, killing the action completely.
I'm not sure how most low-stakes players in my spot would play it if they turned a flush here. I probably wouldn't jam if I turned a flush, and I am going to have some bluffs here, but I think like most low-stakes players, those bluffs would usually be some off-suit AdXx combo, hoping not to get snapped off by 2P+.
H2 - I couldn't think of any hand that wants to raise pre, call a 3B, x/r the T64rb flop for value, but then check turn when the BDFD appears.
We weren't deep enough for him to set-mine with 66 or 44 pre. TT doesn't need and shouldn't want to x/r the flop. I think he 4B's AA/KK/QQ and AKs pre, and I partially block AA/QQ/AKo.
I think he's going to be raising light out of the SB when action folds to the BTN and the BTN limps. I also think he's going to be looking me up light when I 3B pre, even when I'm doing it from the BB.
He could be x/r'ing light when I range-bet 1/3 pot on the flop. He's definitely capable of having some x/r-bluffs that give up on the turn in his range, especially when I only c-bet 1/3 pot, and the board doesn't really connect very well with my 3B'ing range. When he checks turn, it looks like he was bluffing flop.
The only hands that made sense were AT trying to see where it's at, or A5s with one of the suits on board, hoping to turn a BD draw, unless he decided to raise-call pre and is now x/r'ing with 77-99 as a bluff. Maybe occasionally he gets creative with AKo with two of the suits on board, planning to barrel on a flush runout.
I think 77, AT, and Ah5h continue to barrel turn. I think I can get AKo and 88/99 to fold when I jam, and I'm ahead of A5, if A5 wants to call with the OESD, but no flush draw.
i just used hj vs co ranges for pre (i am very certain it's going to look closer to that than bvb)
for fun, if i node lock u to betting range ip otf instead
even vs that aggro of a response you still fold the ax w/o bdfd for the most part
you're going to be better off looking at this kind of stuff instead of trying to reason out counters and what you think he thinks you think he thinks you think he should do or whatever. while that's fun and makes poker seem like a wild west game of outlaws outthinking their opponents, at its heart its basically chess w variance at this point. even if you constantly want to deviate from the solver, it's very important imo to study them to learn poker theory. also, rejoice i figured out how to post screenshots
you're going to be better off looking at this kind of stuff instead of trying to reason out counters and what you think he thinks you think he thinks you think he should do or whatever. while that's fun and makes poker seem like a wild west game of outlaws outthinking their opponents, at its heart its basically chess w variance at this point. even if you constantly want to deviate from the solver, it's very important imo to study them to learn poker theory. also, rejoice i figured out how to pos
Point taken. Thank you for showing those solves.
I think the big takeaway for me is that these are just examples of situations where I don't need to be taking unnecessary low equity risks simply because I think I know what my opponents are doing. Even if I'm correct, I'll have better hands in my range that can continue, and should fold the rest.
Point taken. Thank you for showing those solves.
I think the big takeaway for me is that these are just examples of situations where I don't need to be taking unnecessary low equity risks simply because I think I know what my opponents are doing. Even if I'm correct, I'll have better hands in my range that can continue, and should fold the rest.
yeah i mean the issue with the line you took is essentially it performs perfectly vs an opponent who is xring either too much air or too depolar and always xfing the turn, but poorly vs everyone else. while that type of opponent does exist, your default should not be to assume that this is the case, because if you're wrong you end up making really large errors (putting in another 12bb minimum with relatively hopeless hands, potentially getting stacked on a Q / A, having another 30+ (maybe more depending how crazy u get with this "exploit") combos of unpaired air you're going to need to deal with ott, having to risk more on the turn if he checks etc). i think in actuality the flop gets under checkraised in general because people don't really bluff. also pre ranges are tighter here than you're giving them credit for bc of preflop configuration and just the sizing of stuff iis quite large relative to the stakes
the other thing too, is you're like 50ish MAWG that's doing all kinds of table talk and weird stuff (open jamming hand 1 ott blah blah). these random young regs probably perceive you as a fish and are likely not looking to run it vs you, esp here. like how often do you see tight people call rec 3bets oop and x/r the flop as a bluff?
Many points, well taken. Much food for thought.
I've been on a downswing lately, and likely not playing my best, as we see here.
I think the big takeaway for me is that these are just examples of situations where I don't need to be taking unnecessary low equity risks simply because I think...
"...the opponent is a fish," which is a similar thought expressed by many posters on here as justification for playing hands we should be folding.
]H1 - Villain goes into the tank, and while he's tanking, tries to get a tell off me by exposing his cards - 7d6d - a flopped OESFD that turned the worst possible flush, and a hand I definitely wasn't expecting when he min-click 3B the flop.
When he couldn't get anything off me, he eventually folded. I didn't show. He picked up immediately, to go play PLO. I ran into him a little later, and told him I was bluffing, but didn't tell him what I had, just that I was bluffing.
He said something to the
This gets at something I've wondered for a while: PLO players at a NLHE table, are they nut peddlers who are inured by coolers and gross folds or action junkies who get impatient and blastoff when they only get dealt two cards?
I've assumed it's highly bifurcated with the PLO grinders being comparably nitty NLHE players while the PLO fish become whales at a NLHE table, but I have wondered if they're all tighter at a NLHE table. Well, tighter but also less variance adverse (playing more marginal equity more aggressively, but being able to make bigger folds...so I guess more TAG? lol)
you're going to be better off looking at this kind of stuff instead of trying to reason out counters and what you think he thinks you think he thinks you think he should do or whatever. while that's fun and makes poker seem like a wild west game of outlaws outthinking their opponents, at its heart its basically chess w variance at this point. even if you constantly want to deviate from the solver, it's very important imo to study them to learn poker theory. also, rejoice i figured out how to pos
I agree with this. The “nodelock them to see if even here id do the thing i did” is a nice feature.
H1 you're killing your own action. You're getting something like AK to fold when you want to keep it in.
