Help me with chopy chopy math

You’re risking the same $450, but you’re only getting half the pot. Your original equation is 450/1515 so just cut the final pot in half and make it 450/757 or 59%.

There are a lot of combos that will scoop you here: AA, JJ, 66, AJ, J6, J7.
I don’t know double board NLHE bomb pot strategy but this doesn’t look like a great spot to me.

Ok thanks Dan, so I need 59% to make this break even if I chop 100% of the time? The part that confused me (and the table) was we got into probabilities of chop/scoop/get scooped. So I'm trying to think how to calculate that

Yeah to be honest it is confusing to me as well but I'm interested by it. I'm sure there are some posters on this board who have more experience in split pot games. Hopefully they find this thread and chime in with some tips on calculating equities in a spot like this.

If you are chopping here, you have 50% equity. So I think that in order to call this river bet, you need to have a solid chance of scooping the whole pot. Because there are a number of combos you are getting scooped by (and not many which you are scooping), you probably have significantly less than 50% equity here.

I have picked up pieces of bomb pot strategy here and there, even though they aren't offered in the casino I play at or in any of the online games I regularly play. Generally I think you want to be extremely cautious with non-nut hands and almost always check when OOP. In double board games, my understanding is you really don't want to be playing for half the pot, unless you have one board completely locked up. If you have one board locked up, you can either try to bluff your opponents off of the other half of the pot or you can try to bring other players into the pot, so that you can eventually chop up their money.

I don't lay bomb pots in general (it gets me into the exact scenario of very multiway but low handcuffing SPR that my preflop method is designed to avoid). And our casino doesn't do double boards so I'm not very familiar with it. But...

TPTK eleventeen ways on a single board is an extremely mediocre hand that should be played extremely cautiously. On two boards where we have zilch going for us on the second board, my guess is we should never put any money in the pot whatsoever postflop and fold at every opportunity.

GcluelessingeneralnoobG

I’m way closer to GG than OP on this one. I wouldn’t be trying to fold but I would be trying to get to showdown cheaply, not building a pot.

Check fold flop.

Just check flop. Probably fold turn.

You're getting crushed by JJ, AJ, and 54. Action on turn points to JJ or AJ.

Think we need to know we've got one board locked up to call. And we don't have either board locked up.

As others have said I would not have started bloating the pot with just one pair in a DBBP. The goal of DBBP is to win both boards. There are way too many times were your going to get quartered or beat with just a simple one-pair hand.

Result:

My experience at these bomb pots is fish massively overvalue their hands and so the times you hit both boards you absolutely drill oil. The trick is playing pot control until you've got a good piece of both boards. So I think they're +EV (at a clueless table anyway). I was just trying to understand the math. I think it goes:

Equity needed = scoop%*(bet/(bet+pot+call)) + chop%*(2*bet/(bet+pot+call))

So if pot = 615, bet = 450, call = 450, and I think I'm chopping half the time then...

Equity needed = 0.5*(450/(450+615+450)) + 0.5*(2*450/((450+615+450))) = 0.5*0.297 + 0.5*0.594 = 0.446 or 44.6%.