Flopped TPTK facing serious heat multi-way.

Somewhat surprised how many here say this is a call. Pretty much everyone at the table said they'd fold my hand.

Ouch. About what I expected, though.

Very smart. Very competent player. Rarely getting out of line

P.S. I wasn't there and I thought it was a simple fold.

Lol calling with 2nd nut fd + bdsd+ an over against a whale isnt spewy.

I mean i figured this was leading to flush draw vs flushdraw, we knew both are in their range, we knew blocker effects are less due to V1 playing so wide that he can have the low ones. But obviously some of their range is made hands. As you showed, even in the best case scenario its not like we are printing, which is why we shouldnt have 3 bet, and is also why we COULD fold to the 4 bet. There just arent any low equity bluffs.

So the OP was invisible during the hand? I guess I don't understand justifying plays like this by simply stating that one of the opponents is a whale.

i honestly think this is better result for u long term than u folding and v1 having a set. this is alot of assumptions / deviations being made with not enough evidence.

have said this before but the issue you run into in a lot of the hands you play (or at least post) is you don't really have a baseline strategy so you're trying to soul read every hand. i even understand the logic for why you did what you did at both decision points (initial 3b and then facing 2 all ins), but in actuality you put in 100bb and folded a majority of the pot share vs 2 whales

i don't think people think its an easy call, but you've created a situation where it's unclear what to actually do with your hand if reads are accurate. you have the primary antagonist described as a maniac who's been targetting you for the last 2 hours. based on that description why would we want to put in half of our stack with tptk and then fold on a board with several draws and not that many plausible value hands after reopening the action for him? this was just such an unacceptably large error ev wise that it should be great feedback that what you're doing is wrong.

Maybe he was, people who make these threads often forget that they have an image as well. If OP's image is he's going to lay down TPTK most of the time to a shove here then playing the entire range that you continue with against him as a shove is going to print.

you can certainly take time with the decision and make some selective folds against specific villains, but overall I think if you played AK/AQ TPTK on wet two tone boards as a pure call vs a flop all-in against the set of all possible live poker villains, regardless of how the action went, you'd profit. I'm rarely laying this down, and the specific AQ TPTK Q high two tone wet board I'm probably never laying down since it looks like a flop we whiff sometimes.

AK/AQ TPTK wet board is a fairly common situation too, you run out the variance in this spot pretty quickly. I think the main reason everyone agrees this is a call is instinctively if you've played a lot of poker then you've played this spot a lot of times and over time if you just put the money in on this kind of flop you win more runouts than you lose.

I mean either hero folds and hes HU vs the whale where K high could be good, or hero calls and he has equity to call cuz its 3 ways, id say its a very easy cold call of the check raise. Hero happened to 3 bet which was by far the least likely option, but then V1 jams and hes back to probably having equity to call. The only real way he doesnt have equity is if H or V1 have NFD. Against the specific hands that his opponents have, he has 39% equity. If V1 had 66, hed still have 28%. If its KsJs vs QQ vs 66, it goes UP to 29%.

HU vs AQ hes 46%, but he could maybe fold if V1 folded, figuring hes facing a set.

So whats the issue? You fold cuz someone could maybe possibly have Asxs?

think hes meant to pure fold his hand vs the initial x/r let alone the 3b and then the jam lol. hes absolutely dead for 200bb if one has nfd and one has a made hand. just won't ever be good and often can be really bad. should also iso his hand over v1's limp as opposed to limp calling 8x lol. multiway u just dont really draw to the non nuts without additional equity esp here where hes sandwiched and not closing the action (vs the initial x/r)

Here is how I'd calculate it at the table

Start by assuming maniac has all FD . That's the 11th triangular number which is 11+1. *5.5 =66 combos. Then the six suited sd. He probably would raise some of the FD pre and fold some so let's say it's 40 draw combos. Then give him 6 sets and say 4 suited 2p. So 80pc chance he has a draw. We want the probability they both have a draw. If the first guy has a draw the chances the second guy has a draw goes down. Also he is less crazy. So let's call it 80pc x 70pc = 56pc. The rest of the time at least one guy has a 2p or set. We are 50pc against the draws roughly and say 5pc if at least one guy has a made hand. So our equity is 28 + 2.2 = 30.2.

So it's a call at the end against the jam. The fold is a decent mistake
The 3b is probably neutral to slightly negative ev. The best play is to call the raise and play some turns in position. It feels like the jam was done because hero didn't want to play a tough spot so just shoveled it in hoping for one fold. When no one folded hero got scared and made a mistake folding

The point is that there aren't many made hands that are possible, and it's easy to over estimate the chance we are up against a made hand. My 40 out of 72 combo assumption is probably also conservative.

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I’m impressed if you are able to calculate this in your head. That’s cool.

The fact that V2 shows up with KJss (which should ISO pre and fold post) means he probably has more combos of draws than I originally thought. Probably can rule out some combos of thick value too, because most people 3bet the flop with their nut hands (even if flatting would be a good play a lot of the time).

I mean preflop is standard lol live lowstakes ****, but limping KJs is more evidence he is tight.

I dont know how often hero is betting his nfd into the V who is blasting 24/7, but i certainly think NFD makes up a tinnny % of V1s range just because hes so wide pre and more air heavy than usual based on the reads. And yeah calling the jam was prolly bad but it wasnt that bad, and i definitely wouldve called the x/r.

I wrote it like i think V2 played it well, but i guess moreso what I meant is I just dont find this to be a bad play for a 1/3 player to make, and it isnt within 100 miles of what id call “spew” for 1/3. Id even go so far as to say he played his hand the least bad of the 3 players in the hand lol. I wouldnt be surprised at all to see one of the 5% best 1/3 players making this exact move, so it wouldnt change my opinion of him at all.

Actually I made a mistake haha. It's the tenth triangular number so 55 not 66 but I think my 30pc is still pretty accurate. Because there are 11 cards of the suit . So you have ace with ten kickers then king with nine kickers etc

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I mean...you seem to latch onto the short snippets of an OP which seem to most contradict the action in the hand, while omitting the rest, which is also relevant. It's almost like you're going out of your way to try to make people feel stupid.

I said I played with him A FEW TIMES. I didn't claim to have thousands or even hundreds or dozens of hours with him. I said he RARELY gets out of line, or too far. I didn't say he NEVER gets out of line, and I don't think he's too far out of line in this hand.

He's a med student with a 4.0 average, apparently. He can't be stupid.

I gave a description based on what I'd seen from him in the past, and included what I'd seen from him so far during this session.

From what I've seen of his play, he's very competent. Case in point, he had enough equity to call off V1's jam here, whether I called or not. I think he's competent enough to realize I'm range-betting the flop, and will have a fair number of folds when V1 check-raises the c-bet.

Meanwhile, you misread the OP, apparently twice, since you still thought I was first to act, even after realizing you mis-read. Perhaps you shouldn't be so quick with the snark.

I'm okay admitting I mis-played this. Mea culpa.

I think it's a good example of the butterfly effect that happens in multi-way pots. From V2's perspective, it seems reasonable for him to think I'm range-betting the flop, because I was, and that I'd have some folds when V1 check-raises, because I would.

I can understand his calling V1's x/r, even if he should mostly fold. Once he calls the x/r, my gut says he should fold to V1's 4B-jam, but if he thinks V1 is frequently out of line (and he was), I could see him thinking he had the equity needed to call off the rest, and he was right.

It may be self-contradictory logic, but when V2 calls the x/r, I thought they both could have a lot of draws, which is part of why I raised. The other part was that I was expecting V1 to barrel huge on most turns if I flat called, and I knew I'd mostly have to fold in that scenario.

When V2 called off the 4B-jam, I thought it was much more likely he had a made hand, not a draw which is why I folded.

In retrospect, I see why I should just flat call in a spot like this, not x/r, given the SPR.

a) you shouldn't be range betting the flop at all when it's multiway let alone vs a person who is going to be this aggressive vs it
b) why do you have to fold if you think he has alot of air and he barrels? i would not consider folding any turn except a spade vs v1
c) i actually think you stumbled upon potentially the best line of 3betting (i still think v2 always has a draw because people don't really cold call here with good hands vs described maniacs with you behind) but then you did this lol
d) v2's issue isn't v1's range when facing the xr. he isn't closing the action and you guys are deep enough that he has large reverse implied odds when he makes a flush (he has the 2NF but also blocks the 3NF so he's relying on people putting in the money with like the 4th and 5th nf 3 ways when he hits). also some amount of the time he doesn't even see the turn and if you call behind it's really unclear how he's supposed to navigate the hand if he hits a King or a spade. it sucks and like if he could check down the hand after calling the x/r he could obviously call, but i just don't see a great way for him to realize his equity. i think if you fold out of turn he can call w this hand. i thought about if it makes sense for him to 3b the flop (to like 180) w the reads provided and i could be open to that if it's really accurate.

I appreciate the insights here.

Responding to b) - if I flat call the flop x/r, behind V2, and V1 barrels turn, whether V2 calls the barrel or not, I have to consider if my TPTK is good (baluga theorem). If V2 calls the barrel, I have more reason to think it probably isn't. If V1 jams turn, or seems to be sizing up for a river jam, I have to consider if TPTK is strong enough to play for stacks.

Responding to c) - thanks (?). I did think my 3B was the correct play when I did it, but then I wasn't sure when V1 jammed and V2 called. I suppose the takeaway for me is to consider all the possible outcomes before taking an action. In game, I expected calls or folds, not jams, which in retrospect is short-sighted.

I understand why you think V2 has a lot of draws here. In game, I wasn't able to come to that same conclusion. I may need to work on slowing down and thinking more. But even now, days later, it's still hard for me to rule out him having sets, the way this was played.

Responding to d) - obviously V2 isn't clairvoyant, and doesn't know I have AQcc, but I suppose he could be forgiven for thinking his K outs are good to beat my TP hands, and he has backdoor straight outs to compensate for not having the NFD.

I also think there's an aspect of "he can't have it every time" at play in this hand. I had been VPIP'ing, RFI'ing, c-betting, and barreling at a fairly high rate. It's possible V2 just thought I was FOS and running over the table with raw aggression.

That's not to say I'd have played his hand the same way he did. My gut instinct would be to fold his hand to the x/r, or at the very least, fold to the 4B jam. Maybe I'm missing something, but I can understand him thinking he has a path to victory, with his draws and over-card to the board.

Baluga whale is when youre facing a raise not a bet, and this hand sorta shows why. People semibluff raise OTF and value raise OTT.

Also sub, wrt C, i definitely think people cold call their value here at least some, when facing a check and raise, they call to keep the other guy in i think. And the board isnt that wet, like if youre sitting here with 66/44 youre probably fine with a turn peeling.

I wasn't sure I remembered the theorem correctly, so I looked it up.

“You should strongly re-evaluate the strength of one-pair hands in the face of a raise on the turn.”

If we get check raised on the flop, and then V barrels turn, I'd think that line is comparable, in terms of its aggression.

Yes, V could x/r flop and barrel turn with some bluffs if I flat call instead of 3B. But for me to continue as a flat call on flop and turn would require me to believe that V1 would x/r and barrel as a bluff AND that V2 would be continuing with just a draw. Either condition on its own didn't seem to be a certainty, and both conditions together seemed fairly unlikely.

In game, I figured V1 was likely to be getting out of line, but thought V2 wasn't. It turns out that despite having a garbage starting hand, V1 had more equity on the flop than I did, if we were heads up, and was only a severe dog with V2 still in the hand.

Meanwhile V2 had reasonable equity against V1 and my exact hand, though I think I agree with Submersible that he's not doing well enough against the likely ranges of both opponents to continue. Maybe not though, since my NFD combos are going to be fairly limited, with the K, Q, and J accounted for, and I might not 3B any of those hands on the flop. I'd think V1 would be more likely to show up with A6ss than I'd be to show up with ATss or A5ss. Hard to say what V2 should have done here.

All of which is why I said this is an example of how multi-way pots are much more tricky. If we put ourselves into each player's position, we could assign our two opponents a range which supports the action each player took.

ok so some food for thought. i havent looked at almost any multiway NL solutions. i know simple postflop does them but i've just never been interested enough and the times i tried was a terrible terrible ux experience. I have looked at a ton of multiway plo though and it becomes very centered around drawing to the nuts. i get it's plo but is my evidence for him folding KJss here lol.

so comparable sim. i used a co opening rnage vs bb defending range with 100 bb stacks but then inputted the actual stacks in the hand. this is just vs 1 villain but i wanted to point out that betting range isn't really a thing here. you can get away with it vs people who don't raise enough (because you never get pushed off of your equity) but that doesn't seem to be the case here. it also becomes hard to range bet multiway without using extremely small sizes because between the 2 ranges they're going to have more than enough hands to continue.

i had ss of solves posted here but deleted them. with a 40% cbet sizing it will cbet 50% of the time hu and if i give it a 10% cbet sizing instead it bets 55%. the way we will see it bet range is if i force oop to never x/r

final thoughts are at least hu (at this spr) we don't really 3b the flop. i will say the multiway sims i've seen have involved very uninuitive things so this might honestly be somewhat sound theoretically, and i think exploitatively its not terrible here. when i first saw the hh i was like zomg overplay, doc punted again, but i have come around to it. you have NFD in pretty bad shape and i still think v2 has a draw like always so he ends up either being dead money or getting it in w what should be the NFD. this adjustment really hinges on how confident you are in your assessment of v1 because if you 3b the flop you cannot get off the ride and this is alot of bb to be wrong for. the only sequence of events where we (possibly) dont showdown is if he just calls the 3b and open rips a spade turn.

v2's predicament i think shows why he wants to iso in this configuration pre w this type of hand as well

think its a special spot where you won't see people slowplay much bc sandwiched and deeper and also the initial x/r is small and the raiser is erratic. his issue with his exact combo is he can be in alot of trouble 3 ways (again i keep going back to the nightmare scenario of made hand vs nfd vs his hand where he has close to 0 equity in potentially a 200 bb stack off situation) when money goes in (i dont even just mean here in the all in scenario. i think it becomes really tough to navigate if he hits a king or a spade and someone wants to put all the money in. like he can't fold a flush ofc but i think ranges will be much tighter given its 3 ways and most of the good flushes are blocked by the board / his hand). while i understand v1 is out of line, i think v2's play just isn't acknolwedging the reality of multiway situation. with that being said both v1 and doc's self admitted strategies make me think maybe its ok here but its just not a place id be interested in putting in more money in his shoes at least in the overwhelming amount of cases. its possible im too narrow minded and his play is best

My instinct to fold V2's hand at some point on the flop is because he wasn't drawing to the nuts.

If he has AXss, especially a combo that adds a BDSD to the FDFD, or A6ss, he has an easy continue. I think that's every combo of AXss here, except A9ss. But I'd think he'd raise pre with a lot of those.

I agree that V2 could and probably should raise KJss pre. I'm not going to beat him up for over-limping here, when he has position on the spazzy whale, and I'm behind him, raising and 3B'ing a lot. But, yeah, when V2 over-limps, and sees this flop action, it's clear why he'd have preferred to raise pre. This hand likely wouldn't have gone down this way if he'd raised pre.

All of the above is why I was discounting V2 having very many flush draws when he called the all-in. Like, if we think he should be raising a lot of his AXss pre, and KJs, then he's not going to have a ton of flush draws, unless he gets involved with a lot of SC's and S1G's, and shows up with 75ss for the monster combo-draw, but that's just one combo that plays this way.

I wonder if V2 actually is or isn't slow-playing his sets, regardless of what a solver would do. If he thinks V1 is erratic, and likely to be x/r'ing light, I agree with Tomark that he could just flat call the x/r. That's what I was thinking in game - he checks his flopped set, potentially to check-raise flop or turn, then decides to flat call when V1 check-raises for him.

Think of how insanely strong it looks if he checks flop, then cold 3B's over my bet and V1's x/r. If he did that, I'd turbo-muck anything that isn't top set or a draw to the nuts, so just flatting with his sets makes sense.

If he has 66 or 44, he's obviously never folding, and just going broke against higher sets. But if he has 66, 44, or even 64, he's more likely to put V1 on a draw, and possibly put me on a draw, or just TP or an over-pair.

I was pretty confident in my read on V1 and V2. I would have called the jam if V2 folded, 100%. I didn't think it was very likely that V1 would be jamming light and V2 would be calling light.