Top set on monotone board
$1/$1/$2 opt. NLHE 6-Handed (No rake)
PREFLOP
- UTG straddle to $2.
- MP fold.
- CO (Hero) raises to $7 with J♦J♠
- BTN calls $7.
- SB calls $7.
- BB folds.
- UTG calls $7.
FLOP
J♥ T♥ 7♥
- SB bets $5.
- UTG folds.
- CO (Hero) raises to $25.
- BTN folds.
- SB raises all-in $350 effective.
- Hero ?
What are you doing here? Never been put on this line before so I want your thoughts. I don't think the nut flush jams the flop, I initially put him on AJ with the Ah, donking $5 to peel a cheap card. Even if he did flop a flush, I still had outs to boat up and I can even be ahead if he has the Ah or a smaller set. No previous reads on villain. Soft live club game in Australia. Cheers.
7 Replies
I would probably go to 10 preflop. Would flat call the flop and fold to the shove as played.
You aren't getting that much pot odds and are 34% or so against a flush. You can hope to be against Ahx or a lower set, so it is somewhat close.
I like the flop raise but I think we need to fold to this huge jam. It’s usually going to be a non nut flush that doesn’t want to see a heart or board pair.
Flop raise is good, I'd probably go a bit bigger.
The massive shove can be a lot of stuff ... trash flushes/straights where the fish has no idea what to do but doesn't want to fold or call. Would mostly assume it's something scared of Ah draw.
Note that you have a bit more equity vs. 98,hh than with AhKc or AhQc, and it goes up to about 36.8% if he has TT where AhKc stays at 31.5%. Still not enough though.
Pre is small, but if that's the norm I get it. Flop raise is fine, but fold to the jam. At best you are against AhXx, but that's rare.
I would convince myself he can TT or 77 or JTo and call here. And then I would regret it afterwards, cause this is almost always something that beats JJ.
Appreciate all of the responses. I guess I do not have enough equity to make the call but obviously getting there is always nice. 😀
One of these days I will be good enough to fold top set. Thanks!
I'd raise a little bigger pre. At least $8. Might go $10 if the game is splashy.
FLOP - I'm not folding to the donk. My instinct is to raise, but I think flatting is better. We don't mind other players coming along with their draws, 2P, and worse sets.
The issue with raising is that a donk lead into multiple opponents on a monotone flop is pretty strong. It looks exactly like a made hand, and SB could have a lot of them when he takes this line.
When he 3B jams for 16x, over 6x pot, it's pretty gross, and I think we should mostly fold.