Hero call overbet on river?

This is purely a table read, so very difficult to provide anything different from what you've provided. I'm fine with the call and I'd be fine with a fold.

Although I couldn't run the post-flop sim with the inclusion of the BTN caller, taking this hand as a CO raise vs. BB comes down to the river bet sizing, with the solver folding 88 to a 1/2 psb or larger.

Tough one!

With v as described, I lean to a call. He has plenty of hands to bluff. OT, kT most likely. Diamonds could check the flop, because it's ace high. But I feel like higher equity draws would bet a bit more on the turn.

His big hands will also tend to bet more. Good players will not be overly afraid of draws, but most will not go quite this small.

If bluffing, he could bet smaller and fold your draws. But he might just be thinking, you will fold everything to a big bet.

It would make sense to bet a good jack big here, but some might not.

I rarely care about seeing someone's cards for info. But there is a lot to be gained here. What did his tiny turn bet mean? Does he go big for value with a jack here?

I would've just folded the turn. Maybe he's bluffing, but I don't think he's as polarized as you think. He could easily have a weak Ax, or KK/QQ that checked the flop. A lot of flush draws are betting the flop. So what exactly are we beating, a random airball that decides we are going to fold the river? It looks like we have a jack, and that we have an image of making tough calls. If we had a weak/tight image, then I could see calling as the bet-sizing wouldn't really make sense for value.

so my first thought was I think you should be squeezing here Preflop with a higher frequency 88 being the cutoff between mostly squeezing and sometimes calling but i double checked agianst some other pre flop charts and they have 88 as mostly calling and sometimes squeezing (33% say)

I'd formulate an argument for squeezing if we had more info on CO - if CO is recreational loose passive say squeezing would be a must given button villain's description. If CO is more tight passive calling is probably favorable but since it'll go MW you're kind of playing a very "wait and see what cards hit" strategy overall.

The argument about playing a bloated pot if you squeeze is a little bit of a straw man because its not the case that you see a flop when you squeeze 100% of the time and because your post flop play with 88 OOP the whole time kind of freezes your plays/narrows post flop options it isnt as bad as if you had something like 89s say where you could flop a strong draw/equity and are now locked in to seeing more cards or in some cases taking an aggressive line that would inevitably increase variance/risk. But effectively: the hand becomes very easy to play when both opponents fold preflop and your post flop strat doesnt diverge incredible with 88 OOP whether its a small or large pot since its multiway.

that said as played i think c/r'ing the downbet on the turn from BU with a higher frequency than you'd expect as you should have a lot of Ax suited in your range and some two pairs that would also overcall here. BU _shouldnt_ have many sets in their range besides 55. Nut advantage probably runs kind of close here between Hero and BU but I think Hero should have more Kx FDs than button since they flat called Preflop as they should be raising much wider pre so I'm removing a lot of combos preflop in my estimation of their range.

I'd expect button to be betting flop given texture with more of their two pairs and set of 5s and the downbet on the turn with subsequent river bomb feels more like a postional advantage + range default bet line than an actual value line here. I doubt villain bombs river w/ Jx.

Some Ax hands would play this way but its limited to spade and heart combos. Its these suited Ax combos that could downbet that turn here though to get more of the FDs to come along that villain perceives to be in opponent ranges. But majority of villain's suited Ax combos would normally raise preflop. So it isnt a large # of combos and i'd even take this estimation further and say hardly any at all but would want to flesh that out a bit more / give it more thought first.

If you could provide any info on how loose villain cold calls raises from the button it would help with an analysis as to whether river is a fold, raise (as a bluff) or call, though.

I say this because if villain thinks youre not squeezing enough here they may flat a lot more hands in the this spot pre.

I also want to question your inclusion of KQdd and QTdd in villains range - not saying its impossible but just - wouldnt villain normally raise on the BU with those hands especially given description. But to argue against myself here, some reasons why villain flats those hands and similar hands is: A) they think they have a VEREY LARGE post flop edge, B) Hero isnt squeezing wide enough in their eyes C) those hands play well MW in position and potentially can flop a monster or strong equity hand to win a much larger pot than simply scooping the small raise preflop - especially curious what size stack SB and the CO both have? While not relevant to the rest of the hand those stack sizes are VERY relevant to gaining insight into Villain's preflop decisions.

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That said if we can get more info on villain I'd feel more confident about hierarchy of river actions but without that I think calling here with some frequency above 40% is good. I'm trying to figure out villain's potential range that reaches river which COULD sway this into a fold but that also means they're turning a lot of showdown value type hands into a bluff which the more i think about it makes it unlikely so really it becomes a matter of refining a fold or call spot here.

I probably fold turn.

you're playing too many of these multiway spots like they're headsup imo

Not sure if check rising turn Is am option, he can float me with many hands that can bluff me off in the river if they miss, unless i block bet. I think it bloats up the pot unnecesary.

I finally decided to call. Here are the results:

Not really a table read. I dont have much info of opponent, but he Is making a polarized bet with very small value range. I think it would be a tougher decisión if he bets 2x pot or more.