Am I ever ahead on the turn?
Hero (1050): Active, aggressive image.
Villain (1200): Strong, disciplined reg. Plays balanced but capable of pressure in multiway spots.
Blinds: 5-10
Preflop (Hero in BB):
UTG opens to 30, three callers, Hero calls with J5s in the BB.
Defending J5s here is borderline, but in a multiway pot with decent implied odds and a suited hand, it feels justifiable. Hitting two pair or a flush draw could set up a big pot.
Flop (150):
AhJd5h
Hero checks, UTG checks, all check.
Flopping two pair multiway on an A-high board is always amazing 😀 With so many players in the hand, I opted to check, expecting someone to bet their Ax or flush draws. Surprisingly, the flop checks through.
This makes UTG's range look like either marginal Ax or hands like QQ/KK that didn’t want to bet into the field. The other players could have a mix of draws, weak Ax, or whiffed hands.
Turn (150):
Kc
Hero leads 65, UTG folds, Villain raises to 300, action folds back to Hero.
The King changes the board texture significantly:
It connects well with many hands in the field, especially Q10 for a straight or Kx that improves.
It also puts two broadways out, making Ax hands weaker.
Leading here felt natural. I’m targeting weaker Ax, flush draws, and potentially some sticky Kx. When the strong reg raises, though, alarm bells start ringing:
Would he raise here with just a flush draw or marginal Ax? Unlikely, given his profile.
His raise polarizes him to straights (Q10), sets, or a creatively slow-played AK/AJ.
Bluff raises in multiway pots are rare for strong players.
Folding two pair against such a range-heavy line seems painful but correct.
Thoughts?
Should I have bet the turn at all, or was this spot a better candidate for pot control? Is folding too nitty against a good player, or is it standard given the strength of their range here?
9 Replies
You are going to get a lot of "fold pre," including from me. And this turn is why. Personally, I let it go, but I also don't bet the turn. If I do bet, it's to b/f vs. this type of player 😉
Fold pf. You shouldn't be slow playing 2nd and 3rd pair on the flop. Way too easy to get counterfeited. If someone has Ax, they aren't folding. If no one has it, no one is going to call a bet on the turn.
Defending J5s here is Crazy for You, but in a multiway pot with decent reverse implied odds and a suited hand, it feels spewy. Hitting two pair or a flush draw could set up a big pot for you to lose so you can go home sooner.
Switched out the Madonna song and cleaned up the analysis a little.
Folding pre is probably better than calling, but calling isn't terrible.
Checking the flop seems pretty standard. I'd have expected someone to stab at it when the PFR checks.
Betting the turn for value seems okay, but we could probably bet smaller if the plan is to bet-fold. Otherwise, we could just check-call, or possibly even check-raise if the bet is small.
As played, if we call, we're hoping to spike a 5 on the river, as another J may just make us the 2nd best boat. Think I'd rather fold than call such a big raise OOP.
pre isn't even close. you want to get tighter not looser the more people that vpip despite having better pot odds (worse realizability, greater RIO)
turn looks too thin to me vs an ep opener and 3 others
tbh his turn sizing looks bluffy to me but i would probably fold at this point
Well this Is how the hand went through:
Spoiler
Hero folds
if you ever need to justify your play by "but what if we hit it big on the flop" then you should stop yourself right there and realize the answer is "fold pre"
You guys are right. FOLD PREEEEEEEEE
