QQ facing a flop jam
1-2 NL inTexas...no pot rake...9-handed.
Hero ($275) ... probably playing the tightest and rather card dead...I raised PF a couple of times and check-folded the flop, and the one time I 3-bet, the raiser folded. I was at the table for only 30 minutes before the hand in question.
Villain ($350)...60 something WG, like Hero...playing very loose, as he showed up at showdown in a prior hand with 97o after calling a raise in LP. Also saw him donk bet a couple of times in EP in multi-way pots. Haven't seen him make any overbets.
UTG limps, UTG+1 raises to $10, UTG+2 calls, folded to me and I raise to $50 with QcQh...folded to Villain on the Button who calls $50(?), everyone else folds.
Flop ($123)
JdTs5d
Hero bets $50...Villain quickly shoves...Hero...?
Easy call, easy fold, or fuuuuck?
3 Replies
Based on your observations, and our stack depth, I think we have to call.
I'm not loving it, because every bad rec in the world will show up with every 2P combo here, but it's also possible he's jamming AJ, KJ, 98, KQ, ATdd - basically any hand he could never let go of.
As long as he doesn't have a set, we're not in terrible shape, even against 2P. We have outs to make a set, counterfeit his 2P, or go runner runner to make a straight. I'd guestimate we're around a 30% underdog against all his 2P, and a slight or even decent favorite against the rest of his jamming range, excluding sets. We could be as much as an 80% favorite against AJ/KJ, and we're crushing QJ.
Even against a set, I think we might be somewhere around 12%-15% to win, and that's just 9 combos, assuming he just flats pre with JJ, TT, and 55. Seems like he'd have way more worse combos in his range.
Gotta call and hope to be good on the river.
Hand is fine. I snap call. He can have A/K/Q J or diamonds, etc. Maybe he has JT or 55, but c'est la vie.
*closes eyes flips a chip in and prays its not AA, KK or a set*
I'm still comfortable here even if its face up against two pair there's so much value in your hand already plus we are semi short here and cannot be pushed around simply because he has us covered. With 175$ behind I think we already made this decision by making it another $50 or 36% total stack committed already.
