Playing against an extreme nit
3+ hours at the table
Hero on the button straddle for 12$ eff stack 490$
1/3 8 players
BB is an older super tight nit (eff 650$) and when I mean nit he's playing AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ literally haven't seen him play anything else at show down and almost all his hands played have gone to show down. I don't even think his limping range is anything smaller then KQs. Example hand he played earlier bet was 25$ he had KK board opened up As 8c 5h checked board turn Js checked again no stabs from his V river 9h. V stabs 45$ he flat calls show down v has QJ. Nit wins. Second Example nit opens for 25$ (also he really doesn't play any different from position or out of position) AK off two callers board Ah, 7c, 8s rainbow he c-bets for 35$ one caller. Turns 6h nit checks V bets 70$ nit calls. River J nit bets 35$ V folds nit shows hand.
BB raises to 50$ (very big bet for him have not even seen this size when he had a set of J's)
Hero pocket 10s10d
Folds around action back to hero.
In most normal situations I would certainly bump this up but against this guy I can't see anything but calling or even folding here.
I do call to at least set mine, but I smell a monster. He literally has only open raised with his strong pocket pairs or big slick. Anyways I call the 50$ to set mine and here we go.
10c Ad 5h
BB opens to 40$
Hero? Not gonna lie here I do not and I repeat do not think I am good here even with second nuts. Is it worth it to eventually get it all in against this nitty player because I do think I'll be playing for stacks here or should I trust my reads that he has an absolute monster with AA.
6 Replies
Now that you are here (I would be here, too), you cannot fold. Just call and keep calling.
Let's make things simple.
If his raising range is never worse than AK, JJ+, why are you calling with TT to set-mine when you clearly don't have the implied odds, especially if you're tempted to fold a flopped set if another Bdwy is on board?
You'd literally get way better odds at the craps table.
Villains range is JJ+/AK, just fold TT pre for 10% of your stack. Absolute fish call.
No idea how you can even think of folding now, what flop did you want, quads only? You need 400:1 for quad mining, not 10:1, learn your odds. Call and hope he has AK.
I'm confused by action. Villain is acting first out of the BB? Or are we in the BB? Did we limp TT and then villain ISOed from the BB? Or did we raise to $15 and this is a 3b?
In any case, I'm a little skeptical of putting people on literally 3% of hands without at least 20 hours of play with each other. Maybe you say he has those hands 100% of the time, the next few percent of hands 50% of the time, the next few percent of hands 25% of the time, and you end up putting them on more like a 5% range, in which case TT is more competitive.
Alllllll that being said, whether the dude 3b us or opened the action for 17bbs, I'm much more willing to put him on an even narrower range than their standard range, in which case TT tilts to a fold.
Once we smash the set, we just hope he has one of the 12 combos of AK and not one of the 3 combos of AA. You JUST gave us a HH where he bet more than 1/2p with AK when it flopped TPTK, I don't see why we would rule it out here.
Hero is the BTN straddle, SB folded, and BB raised.
Oh god, okay now I see, the whole post is structured like a movie that starts in medias res and then there's a record scratch moment with a narrator like "I bet you're wondering how I got here. Well BB is an old nit, and here's 3 hands I've seen from him" then goes back to the action in the hand.
Okay, so if this is just a 4x raise of our straddle, then I can't hate flatting pre unless we have a very good sample on exactly how nitty villain is.
It's definitely the lowest leverage/most EV neutral decision in this hand. Calling the flop has a clearer EV difference over the other options, but far and away the biggest decision point of this hand was raising 4bbs blind. I mean, keep doing it because it's great for the game, but if you're looking for how you ended up dropping 160bbs to the table's biggest lockbox, I'd start there.
