Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Venice's Introduction to the Thread.
I make a rule to not change someone's post unless it violates a rule. However this is the exception. Not because APD's post is bad (it is good), but because there's lots of discussion back and forth on winrates, and some people are just looking for a simple answer to winrates and bankrolls.
The simple answer is that winning is good. The majority of people playing poker lose money. Poker is a worse than zero sum game because of rake. Therefore if you are winning, you're doing well.
Harrington wrote that if you are beating a live game for 10BB/hr, you're crushing it. That's $20/hr at 1/2 and $50/hr at 2/5. That doesn't mean that you can't beat it for more, it just means that over time winning that much means you're vastly superior than your opponents. Most people don't sustain that over a long period of time because they move up to win more money.
The second simple answer is to stop worrying about what your sustainable winrate is. In order to get a big enough sample to statistically generate an accurate winrate, you and your opponents have play thousands of hands exactly the same way. Poker doesn't work that way. If you aren't improving your play over that amount of hands, you're falling behind your opponents. Therefore, the results are meaningless.
Finally, Kurt put it best that you need 20 buyins to play a level.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78/mic...
On to the rest of the thread.
So here it is... The Win Rate thread (and other finances)!
This thread will basically be a containment thread and will stock pile all of the questions and answers about winrates. I would also like to include bankroll management and other finances into this thread. Bottom line is this, if you are worried about a win rate you should probably be worried about bankroll management also.
Instead of starting this thread like all other winrate threads by asking the question, "What is a good hourly/winrate at live 1/2?" I would rather take the time to explain a few tools live players have to help us with it and to also help us become disciplined. The "whats a good rate" questions I am sure will be asked time and time again.
Online players have some superb tools that they get to use. HUD's, databases, OPR, PTR, Shark Scope, and the list goes on. Live players have one thing, our memory. As we all know the human mind is prone to what is called human error, or in a lot of "winning" poker players cases exaggeration and forgetfullness. I think its important to discuss how we go about keeping track of all this information that will be important to and for our games. So get your pens and pads ready, or phones, and get ready to start logging!
What goes into a winrate? A lot of people simply log the hours played, the amount they bought in for, and the amount they cashed out. At the end they calculate it all together and wala a winrate or, like most live players use, an hourly rate. This is probably the easiest way to do it. When I first started logging my play I would bring a binder with me that kept all my poker "stuff" in it and I would log it into the book at the end of the session. If I had forgotten the binder I would make a quick note in my phone and write it later. I always made it a point to do it right then and there though. Never ever wait! Human error will kick in.
Times have gotten much more advanced though. Live players now have some pretty useful tools that we can use. First one I will talk about is Poker Journal for the Apple fanboys.
Poker Journal by Michael Golden is a program that will track both your live and tournament play (and any game you would like to add to your database) and calculate everything for you. It will give you your hourly rate, time played, average won, average lost, sessions won and lost, and much much more. It will also graph your sessions and run reports for you. You want to know what day or time has been the best to play or what location is the most profitable? Simply filter your stats and its all there. It will also run live cash games. You hit start and the clock goes a ticking. Unfortunately it runs only on the iPhone and iPod at the time and is $12.99.
Next is www.checkyourbets.com. I personally have not used this, but going to the website and looking at some of the screen shots and reading the FAQ it looks pretty solid and its FREE! 😃 Others on here use this site and I will let them add what they feel is appropriate.
Last is cardplayer.com. Their format is very simple yet boring. If you want something quick and easy with not too much detail then its for you. It definately beats a pen, paper and calculator, but I would go with one of the other ones personally.
There are others, but I think those are some pretty good examples. So why go through all this trouble to tell you about these tools? Simple, you want to know what kind of winrate is to be expected then start logging. What I do is not going to be the same as what you do or anybody else does. Not only will you start to learn about winrates at the different levels but you will be able to disect your game and learn many things. It will teach you discipline. When you are making it a point to log each session you will start to treat your poker more like a business and become more serious about it. Also important is to log your expenses. You need to know if you are spending too much and if it is affecting your roll.
Bankroll is another important thing. I think we all can agree that 20 BI's at 1/2is a good starting point, but if you dont want to wait to save up $2k just to play some poker there is nothing wrong with taking shots. In our world (casinos) this is the smallest game offered and we really have no choice. I will leave the bankroll information out for now as there are many different opinions on it.
Last thing I want to add is that this needs to be a place where people compare rates and notes with little to no brags. If you are going to come on here and brag you better have some proof (I gave you some great material above) and many hours to back your claims up. For those that have been wanting to log their sessions now is the time to start. I can see many good self challenges coming out of this and more disciplined players.
Thats it for now. Let the questions begin (and reappear many times).
But why are online and offline win rates so different? Is it because in live games you tend to play with deeper stacks?
NL2 games are much softer than 5/5 Live, but achieving a win rate of 40bb/100 is not possible at NL2, whereas it is achievable in 5/5 live cash games.
But why are online and offline win rates so different? Is it because in live games you tend to play with deeper stacks?
NL2 games are much softer than 5/5 Live, but achieving a win rate of 40bb/100 is not possible at NL2, whereas it is achievable in 5/5 live cash games.
40BB/100 is too high, but I do think exorbitantly high winrates are possible at microstakes for the very best players. User DooDooPoker goes on at length in his PB&G thread about how 20+ BB/100 winrates are possible at microstakes. He is doing a bankroll challenge right now and has a high winrate at 5NL. Outside of a bankroll challenge, there isn't much reason for someone who is truly crushing to play microstakes.
Stack depth is a factor that limits winrates but rake is also a big difference.
At my home casino, $2/$5 is raked at 10% up to $6, which is 1.2bb.
On Ignition (the site I've put in the most volume on), 5NL is raked 5% up to $0.50, which is 10bb at 5NL. The cap also goes up if the pot is multiway.
That is a massive difference.
To give an example, I have a 16k hand sample from Ignition 5NL last year where I won $78, good for 10bb/100. Over those 16k hands, I paid $134 in rake. That's about 16bb/100 in rake.
The fact that so much of my live win-rate can be chalked up to simple variance and small sample size—is both terrifying and humbling.
How do you all factor bomb pot winrates into your overall winrate?
Miniscule sample size I'm sure, but am up ~900bb over 426 double-board bomb pot hands (55% PLO/35% Crazy Pineapple/10% PLO8/NLHE) over 210 hours on the year.
All have taken place in home games that are match-the-stack with average stack being 200-300bb.
(I wasn't tracking them last year, but did get crushed at least 3x running second-nut/second-nut into nut/nut for 200bb+ each time in PLO bomb pots)
I can't imagine how massive the variance is in double-board bomb pots in general nor do I have any idea of what a reasonable long-term winrate would be.
Because live players are just exponentially worse than online. It's ridiculous. Here's 3 hands from just last night at 2/5
$600 eff
Hero raises KQ utg, 3 calls
Board KJ823 ds
I triple barrel and all 3 players call the river. Why? First guy hemmed and hawed and said out loud that he's sure im bluffing which pissed off the other players because they clearly have showdown value and dont know how to react to him calling. Because of his speech it starts a leveling war chain reaction where they each call thinking the other guy is calling down lighter than usual.
1st guy had 77, 2nd guy showed a single King, 3rd guy showed a single 8. They were giving the 1st guy a bunch of **** for commenting on the hand with other players left to act.
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$400 eff
Hero raies Q9s OTB
Old lady calls SB with Q6o. Board QQ4J8r. She x/c flop, donk turn, donk river and calls jam.
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$800 eff
BTN raises
Hero 3bets red JJ in BB
BTN calls
Flop 764 ddh
Hero checks
BTN checks
Turn 7642 ddhh
Hero bets 1/3
BTN snap raises 3x. This line is FOS, hero calls
River 7642Q no flush
Hero checks to induce
BTN bets something weird like 350
Hero snaps
Button shows 78dd and acts shocked that he's beat.
--------------------
Honestly there were like 5 other hands too but im too tired to type them out. The last time I saw play like this was when I introduced my girlfriend to Playmoney games. Not even NL5 players on Global are this bad.
First 200 hours
Winning 7bb/hr (mostly 1/3, some 1/2)
I tend to play ~4hr sessions at prime times (mostly Thurs-Sat nights) so these results are under pretty optimal conditions
I use conservative bankroll management, so I've been buying in for 100bb and playing a low-variance style which has worked (over a lol sample size). Still have a lot of work to do especially on my mental game, and on deepstacked play
Congrats on your results. Sometimes, conservative bankroll management and playing only the primetime hours is the best way to go.
What's the biggest downswing you've had both in terms of dollars and hours?
Because live players are just exponentially worse than online. It's ridiculous. Here's 3 hands from just last night at 2/5
I had this hilarious one at $1-$2 which was the starkest possible example of how LLSNL players who are incapable of any type of thinking beyond “how strong is my hand?”:
Limped pot 5 ways, I overlimp Button. AhAdTh. Xx and EP Limper (Villain) bets $10. Only I call. Turn 8x. Villain bets $20, I raise to $65 and he tanks and calls.
River Tx and he bets the $100 max. I fold and he shows T7.
If you asked Villain “why did you bet the River?” his completely honest answer would be “because my hand improved to a full house.” There’s no thought whatsoever into “what hands does my opponent have?” or anything like that. He’s making a bet that can’t under any circumstances ever make him any money because “I used to have only two-pair but now I improved to a full-house.”
And players like this are the NORM at LLSNL.
Because live players are just exponentially worse than online. It's ridiculous. Here's 3 hands from just last night at 2/5
$600 eff
Hero raises KQ utg, 3 calls
Board KJ823 ds
I triple barrel and all 3 players call the river. Why? First guy hemmed and hawed and said out loud that he's sure im bluffing which pissed off the other players because they clearly have showdown value and dont know how to react to him calling. Because of his speech it starts a leveling war chain reaction where they each call
what's been your winrate in these games?
Currently sitting at 6101 hours @ $21.08/hr in 1/3 NL.
Pretty sure I've only had 3 downswings of $2000+:
1a) -$2866 over 76 hours (3 wins + 7 losses), 200 hours of digging in/out
1b) -$2866 over 79 hours (3 wins + 7 losses), 194 hours of digging in/out
3) -$2309 over 70 hours (1 win + 6 losses), 148 hours of digging in/out
Also had a 168 hour ~breakeven streak (where I was never stuck more than $749 overall).
Why do you ask; are you in one?
GcluelessdownswingnoobG
I’m even over my last 150 hours.
I’ve decided that determining a win-rate in LLSNL is impossible and that I should quit the game forever yet again.
If you define a downswing as the time period between all-time highs, I had a downswing of 258 hours last year. At peak I was down 1050 BB.
I'm a poker baby compared to a lot of the folks on this board, but my understanding is that this is relatively standard variance. Especially given the fact that my edge isn't as high as it could be.
I’ve decided that determining a win-rate in LLSNL is impossible and that I should quit the game forever yet again.
Is your purpose for playing LLSNL to be able to confidently determine your winrate?
GnothingwrongwithLLSNLbeingafunsidegigwhereyouknowinglyembracethefactthatnoteverythingwillbeconfidentlyknown,imoG
If you define a downswing as the time period between all-time highs, I had a downswing of 258 hours last year. At peak I was down 1050 BB.
I'm a poker baby compared to a lot of the folks on this board, but my understanding is that this is relatively standard variance. Especially given the fact that my edge isn't as high as it could be.
That's good to hear. I've played poker for either part or all of my income for 6 of the last 25 years. I had never experienced a downswing more than 1,200 BBs or 200 hours. I'm currently approaching 300 hours. Peak downswing around 1,700 BBs. Taking a real mental toll. If the games weren't so good, I'd question my play more. I've run bad before, but never THIS bad.
That's good to hear. I've played poker for either part or all of my income for 6 of the last 25 years. I had never experienced a downswing more than 1,200 BBs or 200 hours. I'm currently approaching 300 hours. Peak downswing around 1,700 BBs. Taking a real mental toll. If the games weren't so good, I'd question my play more. I've run bad before, but never THIS bad.
Sorry to hear that. One thing about good games is that they are also often high variance games, which can result in big swings in either directions.
If you play around on primedope.com you can see that downswings of over 1000bb that last over 5000 hands (~167 hours) are expected to happen often enough.
Here is what the projection is for someone with my live poker winrate (6 bb/hr or 18 bb/100) and my online poker standard deviation (I actually don't know what my live poker standard deviation is or how to figure that out.)
Here is what the projection is for someone with my live poker winrate (6 bb/hr or 18 bb/100)
So, if I read this correctly, you assume roughly 3 hours per 100 hands ... and the math says you have a 2.69% of going on a 600 hour (20,000 / 100 * 3) downswing and 0.9% chance of going on a 900 hour downswing?
Last 6 months has been the worst (so far 😉, for me (actually almost to the day since I posted results in this thread 😀 ... but I also know I played at least a few hands worse than normal in april/may. So that doesn't help.
So, if I read this correctly, you assume roughly 3 hours per 100 hands ... and the math says you have a 2.69% of going on a 600 hour (20,000 / 100 * 3) downswing and 0.9% chance of going on a 900 hour downswing?
I think the numbers on that chart are a little high. I would welcome anyone to correct me but I am using the standard deviation that PokerTracker4 spits out for my online 6max microstakes sample, where my win rate is significantly lower than at live poker. I believe my standard deviation will be significantly lower in the daytime 9max Mohegan Sun games I normally play in because the games are soft (softer than 10NL and 25NL on Ignition) and more passive. My online stats are also slightly looser and more aggressive than is optimal, which creates a higher standard deviation (tbf I probably also play this way at 1/2 live). I think 9max standard deviation is automatically lower than 6max too, but don’t quote me on that.
If I’m not mistaken:
Lower standard deviation = lower variance = smaller swings in overall results
I also have a small hand sample for live poker (estimated 20k) and I imagine that if I had a larger one, the variance calculator would have more confidence in my results.
Edit: yeah the site says average standard deviation is 60-80 for full ring, quite a bit lower than what I inputted
That's good to hear. I've played poker for either part or all of my income for 6 of the last 25 years. I had never experienced a downswing more than 1,200 BBs or 200 hours. I'm currently approaching 300 hours. Peak downswing around 1,700 BBs. Taking a real mental toll. If the games weren't so good, I'd question my play more. I've run bad before, but never THIS bad.
I have played since last 8/28 as my sole source of income. I went on a downswing of $25k earlier this year that lasted 49 sessions, 350 hours, 77 calendar days. The blinds were varied, I mainly bought for 2.5k and played a lot of 5/10/25, a lot of 50 straddle and some bigger games. $100 per head standup game also.
The games were often very good, but very swingy, and often several pros playing. Yeah, the mental toll sucks. I blogged about it here some and talked to some people IRL and that helped me through it.
Andy Stacks has a really good video about going through downswings that helped me deal with it:
https://youtu.be/n_BGa03LnUU?si=GEzUS4_3...
Anyways I feel your pain man.
I have played since last 8/28 as my sole source of income. I went on a downswing of $25k earlier this year that lasted 49 sessions, 350 hours, 77 calendar days. The blinds were varied, I mainly bought for 2.5k and played a lot of 5/10/25, a lot of 50 straddle and some bigger games. $100 per head standup game also.
The games were often very good, but very swingy, and often several pros playing. Yeah, the mental toll sucks. I blogged about it here some and talked to some people IRL and that he
How you doing this year so far? Do you still have the same passion for the game since first going pro?
I am up 40k over 720 hours for the year, 101k in 1,150 hour since I started at the end of last August. My best guess would have been that I would have made more by now if you asked me on January 1st, but downswings happen.
I still have an obsession with poker that would be a crippling addiction if I wasn't making money from it. But if I am being a bit more positive, yes I have the same passion.
I am more laid back at this point now. I am playing a bit less hours now, game selecting more, okay with saying no to games that are too big because of straddles, standup game, etc. I have a healthy bankroll. I am okay with not making 200k in a year when I can still make over 100k and work way less hours than my previous job while doing what I love. And I know there is a good chance I will have a sun run 200k+ year at some point. I don't need to try to force it and I am not a failure if I don't hit it.
It helps that I am a home owner in a low cost of living city.
For those with apps that track this, what's your standard deviation in bb/hr? I've made a lot of changes to my game and how I'm finding my bluffs and, while the winrate has improved quite a bit, the standard deviation seems pretty high (131bb/hr over the past 200hr). Obv just could be noise from a small sample size but I'm curious what others are working with.
For those with apps that track this, what's your standard deviation in bb/hr? I've made a lot of changes to my game and how I'm finding my bluffs and, while the winrate has improved quite a bit, the standard deviation seems pretty high (131bb/hr over the past 200hr). Obv just could be noise from a small sample size but I'm curious what others are working with.
It's impossible to track, because the way standard deviation is calculated you can't use hourly averages extrapolated from sessions. In order to do it you'd have to record every single hour played individually. The way the apps calculate it is bogus
For online players my understanding is that the apps. track std. deviation by looking at data per. hand. That's impossible live.
Also think it's going to be way more random live, and you'll basically die before you get a useful sample size against almost any of the people you are playing with for almost all stats.
I still track win/losses, but I don't trust it too much and think it's much more important to know why I did things.
Saying all that, gg is still the goat.
Ah that's too bad
