88 Is This Jam A Punt?

Yeah, it seems like a punt. Based on only 5x after callers? You could get called by someone else, particularly the player who just put in 100. Not a good hand for this, as most of the calling range is higher pps. Weird situation, whether to call or fold. I wouldn't look to jam 215xBB light in a 2/3 game. Also, what are you representing having flat called? It doesn't look like you have QQ+.

Trying to rep JJ, AK

A call/shove in early position pf generally is representing 88-TT pf to an experienced player. If you had AA, would you really want to go 6 ways to the flop?

Could do this with other hands. I wasn’t planning on jamming but btn seemed so weak and sb was capped.

What do you think BTN 3bet folds with? I guess it might work if you are seen as tight -- and you seem to have a good read on the players, so I can't knock you for it.

I thought the sizing was a hand like KQ or AJ suited, maybe AK or AQ but getting those hands to call and sb to fold is printing.

And there’s a chance he folds of course. And he might fold 99 or TT though that’s optimistic.

I have a very tight image.

just fold pre after the 3b. not deep enough to call.

So first off ... I'm not sure about the first call. You're basically hoping to see a flop and hit a set, and are in the worst spot even if only one player calls.
I realize it's only $16 to call, and folding is super annoying ... but it's hard to see how you win much, and easy to see how you have a lot of problems calling or folding bad post if anyone else calls (which your call entices).

After it gets to BTN ... Do you not class this as a "big is better" size because there's already $120 in the pot when BTN chooses to raise?
But what better size can he make it, or do you think he should only ship it as a raise and overcall a lot?
Also is BTN aware that SB is a pro and will thus. have a tight range, and you just calling AA/KK/QQ next to act is pretty suspicious.

SB's call is kind of weird and is likely capped, but I doubt that's enough to make it work. Even if BTN finds the fold, I'm not sure SB finds it with 77 and I seriously doubt SB finds a fold with TT here if it folds to him.

tl;dr I would just fold.

Yes, it's probably a punt to turn 88 into a bluff by back-4B-jamming with it.

On the other hand, sometimes people will sand-bag big hands in the blinds when the BTN straddle is on, so if I'm SB or BTN, I might believe you were trapping with a big PP. I'm not calling with JJ and worse, but I'm not folding QQ+ or AKs, unless I have a read that you're a total nit and this is just always AA/KK.

He is inviting everyone in. If I would’ve called the whole table probably calls.

I would assume a hand like KK makes it 150-200.

100 3b doesn't scream weak to me even with cold callers. People tend to be bad with sizes. Seems punty, because all pairs he has have us in very rough shape and any high cards he 3b are very likely to be flipping. If button folds, UTG can now overcall hands like 99+ QQ, AQ, etc because you are capped. I would probably fold, but if you are inviting the callers to call again then it will be 80 to call, up to 700 in the pot on the flop, so not horrible implied odds. Prefer to be deeper with the 3bettor though.

Being the first caller preflop to mostly setmine isn't ever great, but ok, whatever.

Looks a little punty to me for these stack sizes. I mean, we do put slightly smaller overpairs in a horrible spot. And even some biggish flipping overcards. But obviously life sucks when we run into it. FWIW, we can still easily have AA/etc. here as the first EP flatter hoping something happens behind us, especially this deep (this is exactly how I would have played AA here, but that's me). But I prolly just fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Hero jams and both tank fold.

You didn't mention what his 3betting or squeezing range is in these spots, which would be important to know before attempting to turn your hand into a bluff.

If you've only seen him 3bet with the goods I would fold. If you think he's wide (and more importantly if you think he folds to a jam) then it's all good, but even these players could sometimes wake up with big pairs sometimes.

Assuming my math is correct, we only need to get folds 2 out of 3 times to be close to even (assuming that when we are called we've got 20%).
Not 100% that it's good, and I'd be much less inclined to do it if people knew I could do it ... but eh, if it works it can't be bad 😉

We are frequently ahead when called imo. Btn sizing feels like 2 overs as opposed to high pair. An easy to play hand like KQs or something beautiful.

You need folds less than 2/3 of the time, because you are slightly ahead of AK, etc. with dead money in the pot. It may be good based on bet size tell. However, this looks like a mid pp or like AQ and AK/JJ+ should never be folding. You are only getting folds from light 3!s.

huge punt imo, i'm calling this with hands that have you crushed and folding anything you're a flip against except for maybe AQs, which again, i'm considering because it's very easy to remove the real premiums from your hand because no AA type hand flats there and accepts the risk of going 6 ways to a flop when a lot of the time they are pumping it up and still going 3 ways

btn is uncapped, but even if btn folds, sb could opt to call here with something that crushes 88 due to the amount of money already in the pot

That would be awesome if we weren't OOP with 5 cards still to come.

Not sure I understand. Hero is shoving so position is moot and equity realization is 100%.

Sorry. I must've confused this with a different hand.

Both of these things are unlikely to be true IMO:

If BTN raises 12% of hands (PPT ~150 combos), then calls 4% (TT+,AQs,AK in PPT: 50 combos)
so we win ~$260 2/3 of the time and we have ~33% equity vs. that range when called.

SB complicates the math a bit, obviously, but SB basically never has QQ+ when it gets to us.

Also, unlike PPT I think humans as BTN are way more likely to fold TT and even JJ than they are AKo. So even if BTN raises 8% here, he has to call TT+ or it might be close still.

I think there are some side effects to getting called, where you can't just do it again or people start snap calling everything ... but, eh.

illiterat, idk where you get the raise 12% and call 4% from but that feels like a terrible assumption - i think first number is much lower and second number nearly the same as the first

this is 12%

i think a more reasonable range is this with 99-JJ and ATo-AQo as bluffs - weaker suited aces are flatting here in position

of which, we fold out ATo-AJo, KQs, QJs, 99-TT and call with the rest

While it might be reasonable for a live player to raise AJo and call AJs, folding KQs and calling KQo is something I'd never considered.

Also 5.1% (68 combos) is not "nearly the same" as 8.4% (112 combos), in fact it's 60.7% of the combos.

Then there's the fact that 88 has ~42% vs. your calling range ... so even if your assumed raise/call range is correct then I'm pretty sure shoving is better than folding in a vacuum (quick math: 40% of the time we get a free $140; 60% of the time we have 42% equity in a 1,400 pot ... and thus. have $588, or lose an extra $22 over folding).

And, to be clear, my main point was that even if it's slightly bad (or even bad) you shouldn't call it a punt. That's only true if BTN is calling at least TT+ and/or SB is overcalling a bunch.