Nut flush draw in a crowd
1-3...fairly limpy game, with most players limp-calling raises to $15+...Villain ($600) is a MA Indian Guy in the SB who bought in for the max of $500 but is playing fairly snug...will occasionally open-limp in EP and tends to use x6-x7 to open-raise. Hero has $450 and the other limpers have stacks ranging from $75 - $700+.
Everyone and their visiting relatives limp...Hero checks A♣ 2♣ in the BB.
Flop (7 handed) $21
Q♣ 9♦ 7♣
Villain donks out for $15...Hero calls (?)...three other callers
Turn (5 handed) $87 (net after rake)
Q♣ 9♦ 7♣ Q♥
Villain bets $50...Hero...?
10 Replies
I like call on the flop, you lack fold equity vs the strong lead and are happy with a multiway pot.
Turn same, the board pairing isn't disastrous here as I would imagine one of the three other callers would have raised 2 pair or a set on the flop. One concern would be not realizing your equity if one of the callers decides to raise Qx. Villain who donked though is uncapped also - though I would imagine he telegraphs his hand strength on flush rivers, you could bet big vs a check or raise a small bet.
Raise pre. Make it $30-$35.
Flop - call, though I might raise, expecting him to just flat call and check to us on the turn, even with 2P or TPTK. We could min-click it here, and put a lot of pressure on V and the rest of the field.
Turn - fold, though I might call, with a plan to check-back or fold river if he bets on a brick. He's most likely got trips, and MIGHT pay us off if we hit our flush. If we do hit our flush, AND he bets again, especially if he bets big, I might find a fold. This type of V is unlikely to be over-valuing a worse hand, and would more likely be boated up.
My preferred line here isn't balanced. I'd be exploiting the $hlt out of this type of V, who plays pretty face-up.
I would just call again. If we hit an Ace on the river, do we fold to any type of bet?
Pre and flop seem standard.
It sucks, but I think I would be tempted to fold the turn with two players behind, for the reason that rbrtioh mentioned -- lots of low-stakes players will just haphazardly raise Qx here and force you out of the pot. I also think your other opponents will likely fold their lower flush draws when the board pairs, so you don't even have the opportunity to cooler many weaker flush draws (with the exception of 9x of clubs, I suppose.)
If you call and hit an ace, I can't imagine it's good versus any kind of aggression. You would have to hope V checks and you can beat exactly 9x of clubs or a random JT give-up.
I think pre is fine, you can raise sometimes but doing it a lot is going to be painful when they start not folding and you kind of have to bluff every board.
Flop is good, would even go as far as saying that raising is bad here.
Turn I'd lean heavily to fold, we could be dead already; Ax is very bad now; Kc/Jc/Tc are all pretty bad (this is esp. bad as Jc/Tc make straights so were our best cards); 9c is basically dead.
If we are calling 50 it should be to get the money in when we hit and I wouldn't want to do that.
Saying that, we are folding a lot on this turn including a lot of flush draws so I can understand a call sometimes (balance 😉.
I play it the same way to the turn (and think any other way is extremely meh).
And I now fold the turn. We're getting a fairly poor price to chase at best an 8 outer, at worst already drawing dead, we don't know what the cooler card is where we lose our stack, someone behind can raise, decent chance some of our outs are being sucked up, low IO on the most obvious draw (apart from flush over flushing someone), etc.
ETA: As Ill points out, the 9c is obviously no good for us. Add in the opponents Qx kicker club also being no good, that means at absolute best we have 7 outs (and again that is ignoring the fact that with three flop overcallers we likely have less than that). So pie-in-the-sky best case is 7 outs, which means we need to make about 6:1 (and we're currently getting only a mere 2.5:1)... plus all the while not losing a cent when up against a boat (or having someone behind ever raise the turn). *Trivial* turn fold, imo. It may sound too trite, but really, we should never ever chase a draw on a paired board on the turn in a multiway pot.
Gnothingtoseehere,imoG
Results: Given the reasons outlined by others, I wasn't feeling good about being sandwiched on this bad turn card. Consequently, I folded.
On this hand I’m in agreement with GG. I play it exactly the same and then fold turn.
yeah folding seems just fine - reasons to not fold turn though follow the game description of passive/limpy where you can still peel a card knowing a healthy % of the time nobody will raise behind you. and as most two pairs would have raised flop, betting lead is the one you have to be most concerned about. and while betting lead is more likely to have Q9 still here - i doubt they would limp QQ pre, 99 i would defer to your reads though and same for 77.
So in a way there is a bit of a limiting factor as far as the nutted side of their range. But are you going to be able to get enough into the pot on the river to make the turn call break even and fade any other cards villain might have? QT and Q8 (likllihood any of that gets raised pre?) and how loose wide are these guys limping - would you include Q6? Q5 etc
And in situation where villain's preflop range doesnt have these other Qx hands, it becomes a question of: what limps pre that calls off a sizeable river bet given action thus far
THat said, ez solution is dump it and move on. But there is necessity to talk about diverging from a rather straightfwd strategy here btu more importantly why you would want to diverge.
fine ap, fold turn