Winstar $4/$8 KQo turns TP
Table is temporarily unusually tight - 4 or 5 players seeing every flop. Preflop raises are extremely rare - I have SEEN AA and KK get limped a couple times each.
2 limpers, I'm in MP with K♣Q:heart and I raise. Both blinds and both limpers call.
5 players, 10sb, flop J♣7♣6♦
SB donks. I've seen this player bet a KK overpair and then just flat a flop raise and call down. BB folds, limpers call, getting 13 to 1 I feel fine closing the action for 1 bet with two overs and two backdoor draws.
4 players, 7bb, turn K♥
SB bets. One limper folds, one calls. I'm genuinely concerned that this weak-tight player who's suddenly betting into a king has top pair beat, but getting 9 to 1 with likely implied odds I'm okay chasing a 5-out draw closing the action.
3 players, 10bb, I forget what the river was but I'm pretty sure it was a blank. Let's say it was 3♥ for this discussion.
SB bets. Limper folds. Getting 11 to 1 can I call here?
8 Replies
I would call expecting to lose a fair amount. You’re going to have the best hand more than 8% of the time. Villains also spazz out and read their hands incorrectly often enough.
just call down
This is an easy call down. In addition to giving yourself 5 outs for a draw against 2 pair, you need to give yourself a bit to account for the possibility that you have the best hand (which you do a not-insignificant amount of the time).
Table is temporarily unusually tight - 4 or 5 players seeing every flop. Preflop raises are extremely rare - I have SEEN AA and KK get limped a couple times each.
Dam I miss 2006 at my local casino.
And yeah, what the better players than me said.
Hero folds are catastrophic if you muck the winning hand.
Unless the HH is wrong, SB is not "suddenly" betting into a king. He led the flop and is continuing on the turn. Folding is out of the question and I'd be raising the turn unless I had a very strong read that the SB is never continuing to bet with worse here.
The 3♥ is not a blank; 45 makes a straight, and 4♣5♣ is in the range of hands that might bet both flop and turn. So if you want the river to be a blank for purposes of analysis, let's make it the 2♥.
Before I discuss villain's range, let's consider your hand. You raised with KQo in middle position and got a decent runout. You have top pair, second kicker on a board where no straight or flush is possible. What more were you hoping for? Top-top is a bread-and-butter holding in this game, especially heads-up, especially when no one has raised postflop. Folding here seems like a big mistake.
Now let's consider villain's range. The only hands I'm really worried about are AA, KK, AK, and KJ (three of which you block). Moreover, he might've three-bet preflop with AA and KK, and he might not donk-bet the flop with AK. So that leaves KJ as the only likely holding that has you beat.
What are some other hands he might've played this way that you do beat: Jx, QQ, and all the flush draw + straight draw combos: 5♣4♣, 8♣5♣, 9♣8♣, T♣8♣, T♣9♣, Q♣9♣, Q♣T♣, A♣T♣, and A♣Q♣.
Maybe you know for certain that he would never play a combo draw aggressively, but it seems wrong to put him on KJ or AA only. That's just too narrow a range. I think you have to add all the decent Jx hands without a King (AJ, QJ, JT, J9) and QQ.
Could he have flopped two pair or a set? Maybe, but it seems unlikely he would donk-bet with a hand this strong. The lines that would make me more worried about one of these holdings are a c/r on the flop, a c/c on the flop followed by a c/r on the turn, or a c/c on the flop followed by a donk-bet on the turn.
My goal in poker is not to make the right decision every time, but to make good decisions consistently. If you call and you're wrong, you lose one big bet: no big deal. If you fold and you're wrong, you lose a good-sized pot: that's a catastrophe, as Slansky says.
In my mind, this is a trivial call on the river. If he has KJ, so be it.
Against certain opponents (but probably not this one), I would at least consider raising the turn to deny equity to Jx/QQ and to make the combo draws pay two bets to try to make their hand.
