Winstar $4/$8 tough river spot with 2 pair
4 limpers, I'm on the button with T♦7♦ and I limp along, SB completes, BB checks.
I have a very narrow limpalong range on the button - I raise 66+, 87s+, Axs, K8s+, KJo+ along with all the preemies after 3 or more limpers, especially when I believe the blinds will call along with most of their range. That may be too tight, I need to rethink it and come back to this. I think this hand is just a shade too weak to try to limp along on the button hoping to "flop something" and I will probably fold this in the future.
As played:
7 players, 7 sb, flop T73r.
Checks around to the CO who bets, I raise, SB coldcalls, everyone else folds.
SB is a player I've never played with before who sat down with $300 and has literally played every single hand. He's called down to the river with some holdings that surprised even me. CO is Mr.-Check-In-The-Dark who plays too many hands and has a couple postflop leaks but isn't completely horrible. I've SEEN him bet into 5 other players with less than top pair but it doesn't happen very often.
3 players, 6bb (adjusting for rake), turn J putting out a twoflush.
Checks around to me. I have to be aware of the possibility of 98 being out there but it's a very small part of the range that BOTH of these players would take the lines they've taken with. If either of them pulled ahead of me there's a very strong chance they'd have let me know it, so a bet is basically a no-brainer. I bet, they both call. Now I'm about 99% sure I have the best hand.
3 players, 9bb, river is an A that doesn't complete a flush.
SB bets, CO raises.
Uggh. I'm getting 6 to 1 with the possibility of seeing it get reraised or even capped. CO very rarely bets the flop without at least a pair. I know nothing about SB but calling stations rarely donk into a player who's shown aggression without two pair or better. That's arguably the worst river card I could have seen (though any board-pairing card is a thread to a low, raggedy two pair like T7).
This is a horrible spot. I think this is a fold, but it's so hard to fold two pair.
Thoughts?
Spoiler
I tanked, Phil Hellmuthed, Hollywooded and called. SB called. CO turned over AA, SB smiled, turned over A7 and mucked it. Honestly, I think I'm second-guessing my decision to play the hand at all more than calling the river.
You played preflop much better than the guy with AA did.
Yeah, I don't think anyone would put the cutoff on that exact hand.
Interesting that you mention Hellmuth. When I watch clips of him playing, I'm always struck by his perverse sense of entitlement. If he starts with the best hand, he expects to win. If he flops the best hand, he expects it to hold up. If he raises at any point, he expects his opponents to give him credit for a monster and fold. And when these things don't happen, he has a meltdown.
So sick! How is this happening? I've been running so bad lately. Honey, he called me with queen-ten!
Someone with his level of experience should know that that's not how poker works.
You were ahead on the flop. You were ahead on the turn. Someone else took the lead on the river. This is standard. It happens all the time. (In this particular hand, he did you a favor by raising to let you know he'd overtaken you.)
Now that we know what the three of you had, on the turn there are 42 unseen cards. Of these, 35 make you the winner, 7 make the CO the winner, and 0 make the SB the winner. That's a great situation to be in; I'll take it any day. But 7 out of 42 times, you're going to lose.
Don't be Phil, expecting to always win. Foresee and embrace all possible outcomes. Try to make good decisions on every street, especially as new information presents itself.
Good luck!
Don't be like Phil, unless you can gain money and popularity from being known as a brat.
I guess if it weren't for luck, I'd win every time!
1. I rejoice when someone slowplays AA, KK, AK or QQ and traps people to win a pot, even when one of them is me. It encourages them to keep doing so which dooms them to winning smaller pots with their premium hands.
2. If calling with T7s was a mistake there, I think it was a small mistake at worst. With that said, I hope I fold there in the future.
We've been talking about 4/8 vs. 10/20 vs. 20/40 in this thread - in a 4/8 game that's so horribly criminally raked is there wisdom in folding hands that only have a very slight overall edge preflop?
T7s is actually a good example of that - it actually doesn't have a very big equity disadvantage against the range I put my limpers on (even with the limping ranges not decapitated), and when it hits the flop it's not hard to play postflop. In a 20/40 game where you're not going to see 15% of the pot dragged into a box I could see a reason to play it.
P.S. the 15% is not much of an exaggeration. A $50 pot in a 4/8 game generates the full $5 of rake plus BBJ plus tip.
If you were playing with the same players at bigger stakes (or lower rake) you could profitably play more hands. But in the real world the other players generally get better as you go up in stakes, so you really shouldn't widen your range.
