3 months of meh? (240 hours)

240x30 =7, 200 hands of poker.

It’s a tiny blip.

The big L at 8/16 may or may not be concerning, just depends on how you’re playing. Losing over 40 hours in 8/16 isn’t insane.

Based on your posts here, I'm going to assume that you're posting most of the hands in which you think you may have made significant mistakes.

If you don't also make mistakes in most of your hands that you don't share, you're likely significantly better than most 4/8 players, but "Up slightly" in a high rake 4/8 game as a non-expert is probably the best you can really hope for.

There could be some decent players in 8/16 games, but you're still probably better than average. But even a very good player won't have a huge win rate in a (still pretty high rake) 8/16 game, and the lower the win rate someone has, the more variance there will be.

40 hours in any game isn't really a significant amount of time to make any judgements. Even the best poker player in the world could easily have a significant loss in 40 hours. That's just a week of play for someone who plays full time. 15 years ago I played 10/20 (with a pretty reasonable time charge), I'm sure I was the best player in the game, and I still had plenty of losing months, but by the end of the year I was always a very big winner.

I don’t know how much they rake in your game but in California it’s probably impossible to beat an 8-16 game for more than $8-10/hour even if you’re an excellent player. And if you’re an excellent player you would most likely be playing bigger. I think over the course of 500+ hours if you’re breaking even or showing a small profit or loss you’re doing fairly well. If you want to make money you have to play higher and of course improve your game.

Thanks for the replies, the 40 hours at 8/16 is nothing, I agree. My last 2 session account for most of the losses there( 6 racks), and it was really just bad cards for the most part.

Guess I just keep expecting a breakthrough session as I continue the streak and am a little frustrated.

The longest streak I had was an online one in 2005-6ish where I had a 25k hand downswing. My wife made me quit for 3 months, I changed jobs, moved to AZ and really didn't get back online much after that until Covid when i started getting back into things.

I’m down $500 this year over probably about 240 hours. Lifetime I’m about a 1.5 bb/hr winner so it can easily happen If you can afford it play 20. Lower is cake trap

Mmmmmm... cake trap.

It looks like cake but it’s not!

I wouldn't move up if I was you...even if you can afford it. You are playing MUBSY at 4/8 guessing it would get worse at higher stakes. I don't think you really understand certain concepts. Case and point ur last post about folding flop, which should be obvious, you call. And a few others lead me to think you might need to grind 4/8 and think about certain spots more. But hell....what do I know? LMAO.

But based on posts here, how many mistakes do we think are being made that he isn't aware of? The profit margin after the cake trap is just so slim that mistakes are devastating to the win rate.

I've played in 4/8 games in OP's neck of the woods and based on typical players and some really good promotions, averaging 2+ big bets per hour is definitely achievable. But to do so, decision making must be 99%+ and exploiting known opponents is necessary.

I'm sure he's making some mistakes he isn't aware of. Hell, I'm sure that I make a good amount of mistakes I'm not aware of, as does nearly everyone. But the ones I do make are going to be those on the margin, so small mistakes. Every once in awhile I do make a big mistake (typically because I'm tired and tilting a bit from running bad), but I immediately realize they're mistakes (sometimes even before I make them).

So I had to make the assumption that OP has been giving us the spots where he felt relatively lost. Not his equivalents to my rare big mistakes, where he already knew what the right play actually was. If he's actually making lots of those big mistakes, then of course he's going to lose, but then his problem isn't really knowledge, but tilt control.
And if he's making lots of other bad plays which he thinks are good ones, then my analysis also doesn't hold, but he doesn't seem to me like someone likely to be doing that.

Honestly I can't imagine there are any games in the country in which even an expert could expect to win 2 BB per hour. The rakes are too high at the smaller games and in bigger games the players generally gradually get better.

The 4/8 games I occasionally play in (while waiting for a bigger game) aren't even particularly better than the 20/40 games that are my standard. The players are bad in different ways, but there is no one trying so hard to give away their money as some of the players in the bigger game.

When 4/8 was my main game, many years ago, the rake was lower and the players were worse. I don't know where the games you're mentioning are though, and what the rake is.

Of course I am making mistakes I am not aware of, but I think most of these are in close situations, but if you make enough of them it adds up. I have seem dozens of posts here where the winning players disagree on a decision point so it probably one of those close spots that become more dependent on player reads and history to determine the best path.

Regarding raising the turn here, what is the plan if I get 3!? I assume call down for one bet and on the river? If it is capped back to me?

This is fair, my choices at the local are 4/8 all the time and 8/16 only during big promos. Seems like a good mix to get a taste of a bigger game while still grinding 4/8 and improving.

I am building a new house and moving next year where I will be closer to a casino that has more consistent 8/16.

the only other choices in PHX metro for bigger are the 8/16 and 30/60 at TS.

I do have the 'roll' to move up if I chose(about 30k), but I agree I still need to improve.

While I really want players to jump up to 30/60 to keep that player pool as full as possible, you will get completely killed in it. The game almost always has at least 2 really good players that make a living at poker.

I haven't played 4/8 in forever, but I can't imagine it plays much different than 8/16 other than 8/16 players are a bit more aggressive and a bit tighter at times.

I really think 8 handed at low limit raked games has a pretty big impact on winrates, as it is one less potential person to limp in and help pay the rake. I have noticed that a few times when playing recently is one person is walking, you are 7 handed, and now you shouldn't have an open limp range at all, while in my past life of playing it 9 handed, you could easily limp UTG with Axs, JTs, or a small pp and it was completely fine if it triggered 3 other limpers plus the blinds.

Yes, open limping is no bueno 7/8 handed. Also, I was referring to moving up to 8/16, no way I want to donate to the 30/60 game. After I move I will be about 15 mins from the DD WV where 8/16 goes pretty regularly. Will still be about 35 mins from TS(about how far I am now). A couple of the TS dealers tell me the 8/16 is best on Sundays, may start showing up once in awhile if I feel like the drive. And to agree about the 8/16 players, more aggressive and slightly(some of them) tighter than 4/8 players. There a are still players at both levels that will defend their Kill/Blinds with absolute garbage to my raises, and open limp and cc a 3/4 bet with bad hands.