48 OESD OTF
My biggest question is OTF, do I just call or raise to charge FDs?
4 8 8 handed, pretty typical, 4-5 to a flop, passive.
3 limpers plus SB to me in BB with T8o, I check my option.
Flop comes Jh9xh, , don't recall if I have a heart.
SB bets out, I call, 2 more calls, 1 fold. 4 BB
Flop is a non-heart seven, SB now checks, I bet, 3 callers. 8 BB
River is 9h. Check to me, I check, bet, fold, fold. Getting 9-1 I think I can fold but don't hoping he is betting his 9 after 2 checks.
4 Replies
There’s no charging a better hand with more equity than you. You have 6 outs, they have 9.
On the flop, it would make sense to raise with a made hand—anything from top pair + good kicker to a set. But you don't have a made hand; you have a draw. You want as many callers as possible, so that when you do make a straight, you can have multiple opponents putting more money in the pot on multiple streets.
Even with a draw as strong as QhTh, I would not raise from this position—though I would raise from last position, both for value and as a potential free card play.
On the river, I'm not sure why you're considering a hero fold. You're getting 9-1. Your call only has to be right one time in 10 to be the correct play. Absent any history with this particular opponent (which you haven't given us), I suspect a call here would be correct two or three times in 10.
Your opponent could be betting a 9. He could also be betting a Jack with a good kicker, thinking the river may have just counterfeited your two pair. He could be betting an overpair that he has slow-played (you said the table was passive). He could be betting a missed straight draw of his own (QT) or turning something like TT or 88 or 66 into a bluff, with the common rationale "I can't win if I don't bet." He could have the same hand as you. He could have misread the board.
Note that you're still going to lose most of the time, but the pot is laying you such a good price that the times you win in this scenario will more than make up for the river calls you lose.
Remember Sklansky's analysis of calling river bets in limit poker: If you call and you're wrong, you lose one bet. If you fold and you're wrong, it's a catastrophe.
I would bet the river. The rest looks good. I would not raise the flop but would bet flop if SB checked.
I also like betting river because many will be too scared to raise with a flush even due to a paired board. And probably turbo snap muck if raised, unless it was from someone wild.
