Chasing the gut shot
In my recent sessions I have had these 2 hands , not sure if they are marginal so it doesn't matter or there is a clear choice.
Hand 1
I open with MP KJ♣, typical 4/8player in the BB 3 bets me, 5 players call and see the flop. 7.5 BB He is only doing this with QQ+, maybe AKs
Flop is ATXr. SB checks, BB bets, I call, call, call, call. 10 BB
Turn is say a 4 but brings BDFD into play. I give myself 3.5 outs here. SB checks, BB bets, I fold, 2 callers.
I was getting about 11 to 1 but not closing the action and the dirty out made me muck.
A clean J hit the river giving me the nuts, BB had AA, BTN had TT so I would have got at least probably 2 more BB.
Hand 2
Very similar but not 3 bet pre, so fewer BB on the turn, and the turn brought a full RB giving me 4 clean outs but with the smaller pot and not closing the action I mucked and did not hit.
I am sure implied odds matter here, as well as the other players tendencies, but trying to be generic.
3 Replies
I’m chasing, assuming I can get another bet or more on the river
i wouldnt worry about people behind on that turn card and i wouldnt worry about the backdoor draw either. you are guaranteed at least 2bb on the river if you hit. just make sure to fold the river if you hit a worthless pair.
Sorry I realized I misposted the river, it was a Q giving me the nuts.
