A8s HJ

You should call b/c villain probably has Ac5c and A8>A5

Let's break down the ranges here and figure it out. First let's assume our opponent is playing a GTO 3b range, just to see what 'correct' looks like.

After our opponent's correct 100% continuation bet on this board, we should continue with about 90% of our range, folding only holdings like K8h or 87h. Our calling range represents about 70% of the overall range (20% check rey) that we bring to the turn.

We arrive at the turn with a number of A high hands, all of which at least called the flop bet. Which ones do we give up on? Well, all of the A wheel suited hands are calling with the gutshot. All of the Axc are calling, so the worst A we will have here is A6 not clubs, and indeed, the computer gives up on this one on the turn. Calling is a (-$.50 EV) mistake in 20/40 terms. A7 is a marginal call (+$1.50 EV) and our monster A8h is a (+$4.25 EV) call. All K high hands give up unless they are clubs, along with all the remaining non club junk.

Now let's see what happens when we tighten up the CO's range a bit? GTO will tell you to 3b ~ 15% of the time in the CO's shoes. Let's tighten that up to ~ 10% and rerun the model.

The flop action is similar. The CO should 100% continuation bet, but now we should fold much more against his stronger range, about 24% vs. 10% in fancy pants GTO land. We still continue with all of our A high hands to the turn.

Because we arrive at the turn with a tighter range vs. the GTO model, A8h has less equity and therefore is actually a marginal fold (- $.10 EV). A9h is a marginal call (+$4 EV).

In conclusion I think your intuition is good. We're in marginal bluff calling territory here on the turn, near the bottom of our range (in equity terms). Against a tighter player we should be more likely to just let it go. Against a bluffy / yumyum it's a more of clear call. In $EV theory terms it doesn't really matter much either way. Make a buck, lose a buck. Don't lose too much sleep over it and go with your gut in these spots, it will serve you well.

J Lot

Thank you! I appreciate you takin the time to go through this.

My default has been to call with AT+ and the wheel draws and discard the rest on the turn. I definitely should be calling more against the looser bluffy types. Are we intending on calling down some rivers?