Clear Value Bet
Lose monkey raises early, I three bet red AK, tightest of the tight button calls (he limps QQ and never raises) calls button, SB caps. SB is I guess kinda taggy. He has AQ and TT here and barrels away automatically. All Call
Flop is Kh9h4c. SB bets, call, I raises, all 3 call.
Turn is 6x. I bet, all call.
River is Jx. Two checks to me?
6 Replies
I mean pot is huge now right so it has to bet / call or check / call no?
I would check and pray. Button should check behind a lot and I think your ideal outcome is one where zero bets go in on the river.
What hands beat me?
Kj? Jj?
I’m going to even assume tight guy raises sets?
So the tight guy shouldn't really have anything you lose to (though I think his most likely hand is another AK). But he could also have AA or something he has been waiting until the river to raise with - I see super nits wait to raise until the river in these sorts of bloated pot dynamics all the time. The other two guys also have some mildly plausible hands that pulled ahead of you (including KJ and JJ, potentially something like QT or J9 if the monkey is really nuts).
Against any one of these guys (or even the SB and the LAG opener together), I think it's a value bet. But beating all three of them seems like a significant parlay, the pot is too big to fold, and I really, really don't want to pay 2 bets here. All of that weighs in favor of checking and praying, though I admit that I am sort of a wimp in these situations and tend to play way too defensively on the river in bloated pots.
It’s close. I would most likely check with three opponents. On my better days my hand is good and on bad days I lose to a straight or two pair.
in my games (Bellagio) i bet and pray noone raises the normally i get one or 2 callers that have a worse hand like any K, good 9and of course a J.
I think betting is good also because multiway in huge pots villains bluff almost never especially here in the B.
If i get raised well especially from tight passive types, that have suddenly a grin in their face i fold and dont think about it.
I call sometimes the tagish good players or the absolut maniacs, not to win often but to get info and make a statement.
Pretty much my plan for all multiway pots where i have top pair and the betting lead.
Summerized i think bet/fold is the standard here 75% of the time, call 25%
to ballpark it. Never overcall a raise on the river.
Tell me what you guys think
