Commerce 40 - Narrow Range River Spot

What are you targeting when you bet the river here? Kk? Ak?

So maybe the answer is just that this guy has defined his range so much by 4betting and leading the flop and turn that I should just check back AK? It just seemed weak to me at the time to check back but I'm increasingly convinced it's correct.

Yeah this is an awful board for AK against this line. What are you hoping he has, ATs TT?

This preflop line from a tag is usually like QQ, AK plus heads up.

I actually think the river is closer after you bet if he has any spazz in him.

Gross. I don't know what's right but have some questions:

What's should be the bottom of this hand class for us? I can imagine A5s pre and calling twice. Not sure I'm betting the river with A8s, though.

What is he kr now that wouldn't look like as good a kr candidate on the turn?

Is the A of flush draw on the board?

Sorry dumb newb questions on syntax-

AQ3tt what do the tt mean?

Same question the 'r' on the turn and river?

and I assume kr means check raise like xr?

Killians, TT means "two tone" meaning two of one suit and one of another. It's a shorthand way of saying "there's two to a flush on the flop." The Rs on the following streets denote, at minimum, that the suit that there was two of didn't come out, so there aren't three to a flush. Really, it should mean that the third and fourth suit showed up because it might be relevant if there are two flush draws on the board on the turn, but whatever. So this board is likely AcQc3hJd9s or the like. K/R does mean check-raise. Old school 2p2 is to use "k" for check to avoid confusing it with "c" for call. It's like using "!" for bet i.e. "3!" for 3bet even though newer posters just say 3b.

tyvm. My assumptions were wrong about the tt . Appreciate the time to respond.

So, this is a pretty interesting narrow range situation. In theory we should actually be doing a fair amount of raising with AK on the flop, but the ev gain of creating a mixed strategy vs a pure call/fold strategy is really negligible here. I like to call with everything but our worst hands here.

When we get to the river, we should check back with AK. When villain checks here it is supposed to be a pretty balanced range of weak showdown hands and hands like QQ that want to not check/raise to prevent you from doing exactly what you do here. I think once you get check/raised you're supposed to just fold. You have better hands to call with.

That said, some villains, when they check here, will basically never have a check-raising range, or if they do it's something weird like precisely 99. And, a 9 is a pretty weird card for a MUBSy villain to check a very strong hand like a set or two pair. So, I think there are going to be some villains here who basically always have worse when they check here (think: KK, JJ, AT, A8s, etc.) and will make a crying call in this big pot. Against these sorts of folks whose check is just a face up marginal showdown hand, we print.

I would almost always bet the river and in game speed I’d probably call the river even though you’re almost always beat. It’s probably worth one big bet to find out what the villian had.

Same as above. I’m wondering if maybe he is spazzing out with KK or TT here tilted by how bad the runout is. I doubt he is turning AK into a bluff because he would probably just bet that himself on the river and not expect you to fold a better or equal hand to a check/raise.

I like checking back here all things considered because if he rarely 4bets I’m guessing he’s skewed towards tight rather than light. Even light 4bets have gotten there except KQ and JT (AT doesn’t want to check raise river).

Thanks, all.

Personally I would just bet the river myself in his shoes but of all the combos to x/r that’s the one that makes the most sense since he’s unblocking top pair.

If he really wanted to try to get an extra bet out of you, I think he should have check-raised the turn instead of the river.

If villian check raises the turn he probably doesn’t get a river call and only wins two big bets. The way he played it he won three big bets. This might be an expert play or a very fortunate villian.

I like it. You can fold to the turn c/r or call and fold river. Sexy is sexy

The river x/r is expert. That is to say, that based on the assumptions I used, a solver plays it the same way. I think Villain wants to protect some weaker hands with showdown value that want to check the river, and QQ is a great hand to do that with. It's been a a while since I looked at this spot, but I think QQ is a pure, and likely the only pure, x/r on the river here for villain.

The reason I prefer a turn check-raise is because it wins more if OP was on a draw. And if not, most players who have thin value are going to bet the river and call the check-raise.

As OP, if it is checked to me on the river I'm thinking that either V himself had some kind of draw that he has given up on, doesn't like the river card, or is trying something tricky (like was actually the case). For two of those three cases it's better for OP to check behind on the river, and for the other one he shouldn't need to pay off the check-raise. There are very few people who take this line, and almost no one would ever take it when bluffing. Check-raise bluffs on the river are just very rare. As played I think OP could safely fold to the river check-raise.

FWIW I think u played ok
U check and got toasted by QQ , ok….
I don’t think all his check on the river means he got a set .
Your hand his strong enough to bet for sure, as for calling ?
If it’s the weaker A you bet here , ok u might fold it but if u have weaker ones I think it’s ok to call with it .

But then again u never saw him 4bet so that is a huge tell for future hands imo .
U know it’s QQ,KK,AA and that’s about it .
So just that it’s worth the bet call .

Uhm, the fact that villain had QQ this hand does not mean that QQ is the bottom of his 4bet range. It just means the QQ is included in his 4bet range.

He never saw a TAG regular 4bet OOP before .
Seem QQ his probably in the very bottom of his range to 4bet .
Maybe JJ shrug .

Point is when he 4bets and we actually see this hand it’s to me like a double confirmation is a nit when he 4bet and to tighten up a little in the river when he check for at the minimum the next hand he 4bet .
Obviously sample is very small

I think this is right. Hard to imagine we get enough calls from KK/TT to make betting worthwhile, and we get kicked in the teeth w/a check raise too often.

At this point we are getting 10.5-1. If villain bluffs only 1/3 of his TT combos this way, we are getting priced into a call. Normally I’d say it’s unlikely they even do that but this villain description matches someone who’d bluff bottom of range like this.

Yep, that’s very exploitable. Which is why I need to think about checkraising more often.

A 4B OOP range that tight seems very bad, would be better to never 4B OOP to avoid the information leak. This villain doesn’t sound bad.

What if they check behind the turn for a free card? How often will they bet ATs against a four better? JTs/KJs/KQs?

Not sure if it mattered, but in my post you quoted, "are" should have been "aren't".

I'm not sure that kr the turn is the best, just that I like it better than on the river.

A lot of players are still going to bet the turn when checked to with those hands. If not, you're not likely to get more than two big bets total out of them anyway.

But the main thing is that this line by villain should not have worked. AK should not have bet/called the river, and hands better than that should have raised the flop or the turn. As played before the river, I can't find any hands which should have been played the way OP played here.

No offense intended. 😀