Commerce 40 - I'm Sure the Computer Thinks I Should Bet
I open A2cc in the LJ and both blinds call. The main villain is in the BB. He is too loose, medium-aggressive, and can spaz out from time to time.
Flop 9c 5c 9s. They both check, I bet, and only BB calls.
Turn As. BB checks. I check back. My thinking is as follows:
1. I really don't want to pay 2-3 bets to see a showdown UI, and I don't think I can fold UI if he raises the turn.
2. If he has a better ace, I cannot beat him without improving to a flush. (Obviously there are outs to chop.) In contrast, if he doesn't have an ace, he has extremely few outs to beat me, and even if he gets there the pot is not that big and I'm never forced to pay multiple bets on the river to show down.
3. If I bet this turn, I think he will fold a lot of his worse hands. In contrast, checking could either induce a bluff or make him willing to call very light on the river if he thinks I am taking a stab with nothing.
The obvious downside is that I miss a bet when I have the best hand.
8 Replies
Sorry, I screwed the HH up - the turn was either the Ad or Ah, not As (I don't remember which but I distinctly recall there was not another flush draw).
Yep this is perfect. If they aren’t ahead they have very few outs and this line may get them to pay you off with king high
On the turn you’re way ahead or way behind. I would only bet if I thought my opponent would call with a Five or a pocket pair.
Villain sounds like you!
By default, you are supposed to bet here. And if you get raised you just suck it up and call down. BB is supposed to mostly raise all the 9s on the flop, so if you get the sense that villain is really tricky and will mostly slowplay his 9s here, then I can get behind your line. OTOH, a tricky villain may also just feed you chips with worse draws, etc.
FWIW, if it were a rainbow flop, we'd want to check our bad aces on the turn, but the presence of the FD changes things.
Villain sounds like you!
By default, you are supposed to bet here. And if you get raised you just suck it up and call down. BB is supposed to mostly raise all the 9s on the flop, so if you get the sense that villain is really tricky and will mostly slowplay his 9s here, then I can get behind your line. OTOH, a tricky villain may also just feed you chips with worse draws, etc.
FWIW, if it were a rainbow flop, we'd want to check our bad aces on the turn, but the presence of the FD changes things.
What is he calling the turn with that you beat? Seems we get calls from lots of Ax that are way ahead.
What is he checkraising the turn with that you are beating? Seems like bluffs here would be a small enough part of their range to make it tough to call river without a flush or improving our kicker.
What is he calling the turn with that you beat? Seems we get calls from lots of Ax that are way ahead.
Draws and worse pairs, mostly. If you're only getting called by aces here, then you can basically double barrel your entire range because your opponent will be massively over-folding.
What is he checkraising the turn with that you are beating? Seems like bluffs here would be a small enough part of their range to make it tough to call river without a flush or improving our kicker.
Worse draws, mostly. I mean, in theory villain should have enough bluffs to make us indifferent with our bluffcatchers, and our hand is better than a pure bluffcatcher, at least right now.
Draws and worse pairs, mostly. If you're only getting called by aces here, then you can basically double barrel your entire range because your opponent will be massively over-folding.
Worse draws, mostly. I mean, in theory villain should have enough bluffs to make us indifferent with our bluffcatchers, and our hand is better than a pure bluffcatcher, at least right now.
Thanks, pretty clear I'm very rusty, this helps.
